Looks like Glenn Beck is right on Inflation

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wcoltd
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27 Aug 2011, 9:33 am

pandabear wrote:
Well, good luck to you, then.

On the other hand, housing prices have been going down, as have interest rates.

Have you shopped the Back to School sales? Some very low prices on back-to-school commodities. A very good time to stock up on pens, pencils, markers, crayons, notebooks and backpacks.


That's not really deflation, that was the result of a bursting credit bubble. You have to take in the rise during the boom, not just that housing prices are dropping now. Markets are cyclical, when determing whether something is inflating you ought to look at the trend of prices, and not simply look at the prices from the height of the business cycle to the low.

For back to school sales, it's good to look and see what the prices were last year vs today.

when money is being printed (and bonds are purchased with that money) it has the effect of depressing interest rates while increasing the money supply.

Central banks are buying bonds not because they see them as an end to themselves but they are buying bonds in the interest of preserving global stability. Who in their right mind would give the U.S. government money for 10 years with just a 2% return? The government is insolvent, prices are rising faster than interest rates, Even by government statisstics.

Ultimately problems caused by money printing will become so great that central banks will be forced to stop purchasing bonds, and interest rates will skyrocket. If there is a serious threat of global political risk, for instance the end of breton woods, the federal reserve will respond strongly to such a threat by dramatically rising interest rates, even at the expense of bankrupting the U.S. government.

If Breton Woods were to end, that would be the end of the dollar. It would cease to be a currency, global inflationary collapses work when counrties divest themselves of their dollars by buying from the remaining pool. Increasing the concentration of money while decreasing the pool of labor (goods of which to buy) it takes a relatively small group to act as a catalyst for this reaction. The dollar is extremely susceptible to a collapse. If you disagree with me, ask yourself the question. What is more likely; is it more likely that the Dollar economy will double or is it more likely the money supply will double in the next ten years?

It is far more likely that the dollar economy will grow much faster than the productive economy over the next 10 years, over the next 20 years so on and so forth.



Orwell
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27 Aug 2011, 5:02 pm

Inuyasha wrote:
Orwell wrote:
pandabear wrote:
Orwell wrote:
I pay somewhere about $3 for a loaf of good bread (sometimes less, since it's frequently on sale). How about we make a bet here Inuyasha, to see if Beck's predictions come true? He says the price of food will rise 700%-1000% in 2011? I'll be generous and say that his prediction comes true if we see a measly 300% increase. This December, I will go to my grocery store and buy a loaf of bread, the same brand I buy now. If it costs under $10, Beck is full of sh**. Agreed?

If you want me to take a broader basket of food prices, I can get prices for all the food I typically eat when I go shopping this weekend and compare against the same foods in December.


Has your loaf of bread gone anywhere near $10 yet?

Nope. The fancy premium breads are still about $4/loaf. I typically wait around to buy though, since at least once a week one of the brands at the local grocery is on sale, meaning I typically pay $2-3/loaf for good bread.


Again though, Europe is in worse shape than we are which is buying us some time.

No, Beck is a f*****g moron, and so are you.

Unfalsifiable predictions are the signature of the scam artist. and false alarmist. You insisted on having a built-in out so that no matter what actually happened, you could claim to be right.

By the way, I just now bought two loaves of bread for under $1.40 each.


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pandabear
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27 Aug 2011, 6:29 pm

Well, that 50% deflation on the bread.



ruveyn
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27 Aug 2011, 6:31 pm

Orwell wrote:

By the way, I just now bought two loaves of bread for under $1.40 each.


I get day old bread for between 50 and 75 cents a loaf.

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27 Aug 2011, 6:42 pm

By how much has the price of day-old bread escalated since January?



Inuyasha
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27 Aug 2011, 8:40 pm

Orwell wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Orwell wrote:
pandabear wrote:
Orwell wrote:
I pay somewhere about $3 for a loaf of good bread (sometimes less, since it's frequently on sale). How about we make a bet here Inuyasha, to see if Beck's predictions come true? He says the price of food will rise 700%-1000% in 2011? I'll be generous and say that his prediction comes true if we see a measly 300% increase. This December, I will go to my grocery store and buy a loaf of bread, the same brand I buy now. If it costs under $10, Beck is full of sh**. Agreed?

If you want me to take a broader basket of food prices, I can get prices for all the food I typically eat when I go shopping this weekend and compare against the same foods in December.


Has your loaf of bread gone anywhere near $10 yet?

Nope. The fancy premium breads are still about $4/loaf. I typically wait around to buy though, since at least once a week one of the brands at the local grocery is on sale, meaning I typically pay $2-3/loaf for good bread.


Again though, Europe is in worse shape than we are which is buying us some time.

No, Beck is a f***ing moron, and so are you.

Unfalsifiable predictions are the signature of the scam artist. and false alarmist. You insisted on having a built-in out so that no matter what actually happened, you could claim to be right.

By the way, I just now bought two loaves of bread for under $1.40 each.


I'm guessing you either live in farm country, or I'd be questioning the safety of the bread...

Orwell you wouldn't admit that Glenn Beck is right no matter how blatently he is correct (barring it fitting in with your leftist ideology).

Part of the reason the Roman Empire collapsed was due to inflation and spending more than they were taking in. Only reason we haven't had a full implosion is Europe is in worse shape than we are.

People are flocking to Gold because they are scared the dollar's value is going to collapse.

Obres wrote:
The other thing that's buying us some time is that Glenn Beck doesn't know what the hell he's talking about, ever.


Well considering all you do is run around and call smear people instead of looking at their research, it looks more like you don't know what the hell you are talking about.

pandabear wrote:
By how much has the price of day-old bread escalated since January?


In which part of the country? Again, Europe's financial issues is really about the only thing keeping us from having hyperinflation right now.



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27 Aug 2011, 8:52 pm

Inuyasha wrote:
Part of the reason the Roman Empire collapsed was due to inflation and spending more than they were taking in.

It probably had more to do with the invading Germanic tribes.

Quote:
Only reason we haven't had a full implosion is Europe is in worse shape than we are.


:roll:

We have to blame it on something.

Quote:
People are flocking to Gold because they are scared the dollar's value is going to collapse.

Some people are. My prediction is that gold prices will soon fall precipitously, as real estate prices did.

Quote:
Again, Europe's financial issues is really about the only thing keeping us from having hyperinflation right now.


:roll:



Orwell
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27 Aug 2011, 10:03 pm

Inuyasha wrote:
I'm guessing you either live in farm country, or I'd be questioning the safety of the bread...

I live in the south of Florida, no grain production near me as far as I know (climate's not right for it) and the bread is fine. It's from a well-known big brand.

How much does bread cost where you live? It can't be much higher than $3/loaf, and if you've an ounce of financial sense you should be able to get it cheaper than that by picking it up on sale.

Quote:
Orwell you wouldn't admit that Glenn Beck is right no matter how blatently he is correct (barring it fitting in with your leftist ideology).

He's not right though. Bread is not $20/loaf. It's not even $10/loaf, which I generously offered as a threshold to say that Beck's prediction came true.

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Part of the reason the Roman Empire collapsed was due to inflation and spending more than they were taking in.

Those were hardly the main causes. You seem to be relying on a terribly anachronistic analysis of Roman history.

Quote:
People are flocking to Gold because they are scared the dollar's value is going to collapse.

People are also flocking to US Treasury bonds, because the market knows that the American government will be around for the foreseeable future and will continue to be stable enough to pay its debts. In fact, shortly after the whole debt debacle and the debt downgrade, investors wanted US Treasury bonds so much that, for a short while, they were actually trading at negative interest rates- that is, people were willing to pay for the privilege of holding US debt. That's because they know it's one of the safest bets out there.

Quote:
In which part of the country? Again, Europe's financial issues is really about the only thing keeping us from having hyperinflation right now.

There is no reason why we should have hyperinflation. We have actually seen alternating periods of inflation and deflation over the past several years.


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pandabear
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01 Sep 2011, 8:01 am

Well, this may explain why Rupert fired Glenn. Although Glenn has a loyal, devoted and fanatical following, he generally succeeded in making Fox News look stupider than it already is.



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01 Sep 2011, 9:58 pm

pandabear wrote:
Well, that 50% deflation on the bread.
I can buy bread for $1 a loaf (not on special) but then, I guess our dollar is worth more. he..he..he..


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