psychohist wrote:
That's not my experience. When I was doing that kind of stuff for a living - granted not for the whole economy, but for the telecom industry and a little work for the polyethylene industry - we could make good predictions about how the market would grow and where prices would be that could not be affected by the actors. Our clients could decide to participate or not to participate, but if an industry was going to tank, it was going to tank, and the best a company could do was to stay out of it so someone else would lose their shirts instead.
Well, I'd really bet that part of the issue is also size. Microeconomics is a lot easier to predict, and it is a lot easier to base oneself on fundamentals there. Macroeconomics is just full of variables, and full of various investors hanging on every word.
Quote:
It's like a prediction about when you are going to die that you can't change - the more you try to change it, the more you find yourself playing into fate's hands. That's what accurate predictions are like.
Well, ok, and that's what economists have been told to seek. Those are just really difficult as they usually require unentangling the microeconomic incentives.