Impending Global Economic Collapse

Page 4 of 8 [ 123 posts ] Go to page Previous 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Next

Previous topic | Next topic

DC
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 15 Aug 2011
Age: 48
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,477

18 Jun 2012, 5:40 pm

JWC wrote:

Here's more:

A quote from The Wall Street Journal, January 2005:

http://www.mises.ca/posts/blog/peak-oil-is-a-myth/

Your choice of sources that you regard as evidence is illuminating, I'm afraid all they are is ultra right-wing propaganda pieces, devoid of any actual evidence but full of rhetoric and conspiracy theory.

Here is a hint, reliable sources that talk about oil reserves don't also sneer at 'warmists' and issue dire warnings that it's all a government conspiracy to take your rights away.

Vigilans
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 19 Jun 2008
Age: 38
Gender: Male
Posts: 12,181
Location: Montreal

18 Jun 2012, 6:01 pm

DC wrote:

JWC wrote:

Here's more:

A quote from The Wall Street Journal, January 2005:

http://www.mises.ca/posts/blog/peak-oil-is-a-myth/

I like how they also take a potshot at evolution, pointing out global warming is also "just a theory". Gravity is a theory too. Theoretical knowledge is responsible for allowing us to use this medium of communication (internet) (electronics- electrons- atomic theory?). The term theory is extremely misunderstood

_________________
Opportunities multiply as they are seized. -Sun Tzu
Nature creates few men brave, industry and training makes many -Machiavelli
You can safely assume that you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do

androbot2084
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 23 Mar 2011
Age: 65
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,447

18 Jun 2012, 6:04 pm

When the the economic system which is based on money collapses, everything will be free.

JWC
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Age: 47
Gender: Male
Posts: 740
Location: Macondo Wellhead

18 Jun 2012, 6:47 pm

DC wrote:

JWC wrote:

I guess you missed the link. Here it is again:

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Debunking-The-Myth-Of-Peak-Oil-Why-The-Age-Of-Cheap-Oil-Is-Far-From-Over-Part-1.html

Are you serious?

You actually want to use THAT when asked for evidence, as a seasoned industry pro, THAT is the best you can offer?!

Lets take a look at your 'evidence' then.

Quote:

But now the "experts" claim "Global Warming." It's all just a theory, like Evolution, but after so many "experts" parrot the "truth" in the media, and even colleges and universities begin teaching it as truth, then it becomes "truth,' even when at best it's a 50-50 shot. I’ve read that 63% of those surveyed were “concerned” about Global Warming. Geez, don’t people even know how to ask the right questions anymore?

Oh dear, it's not really looking like a peer reviewed scientific with sound, well reasoned arguments backed up with decades of data and research is it?

Lets examine some of the claims made

Quote:

Bakken Formation
There’s enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 40 years straight. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL!

Assuming US demand stagnates, 40 years supply would require 300 billion barrels of refined, delivered fuel.

The USGS estimate that best case scenario for 'technically recoverable oil in place' is 3-4.3 billion barrels and that is before you lop 20-30 percent off refining the horrible shale muck.

Once again, out by a factor of at least one hundred and anyone that could refine shale and sell it profitably for $16 a barrel would currently be ruling the world, it's impossible.

Want to try again?

PS if you want a more realistic analysis of Bakken, try this:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3868

It's from 2008 so the 111million barrels production in 50 years needs to revised up to about 150 million to match estimates for total production ever at year end 2012.

First of all, I'm at work right now, so I'm looking up my sources in a hurry. Second of all, you're completely ignoring that the figures I referenced from Von Mises actually came from the Wall Street Journal. Not an "ultra right-wing propaganda piece".

JWC
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Age: 47
Gender: Male
Posts: 740
Location: Macondo Wellhead

18 Jun 2012, 7:06 pm

Once again, from the WALL STREET JOURNAL:

Quote:

To pick just one example among many, finding costs are essentially zero for the 3.5 trillion barrels of oil that soak the clay in the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada. Yes, that’s trillion – over a century’s worth of global supply, at the current 30-billion-barrel-a-year rate of consumption.

Here's more:

Quote:

Global oil consumption grew by a below-average 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d), or 0.7%, to reach 88 million b/d

http://www.bp.com/extendedsectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9041228&contentId=7074736

Quote:

Global oil reserves rose by 31 billion barrels to 1,653 billion barrels in 2011

Quote:

World proved oil reserves at the end of 2011 reached 1652.6 billion barrels, sufficient to meet 54.2 years of global production.

http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037157&contentId=7068604

From this it is obvious that oil reserves are increasing, not declining. Therefore we are discovering new oil deposits at a faster rate than we are consuming oil for production. Hence there is an oil surplus, not a shortage.

DC
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 15 Aug 2011
Age: 48
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,477

18 Jun 2012, 7:10 pm

JWC wrote:

You do know that the WSJ is owned by Murdoch don't you?

Murdoch outlets are pretty much the definition of ultra right-wing propaganda pieces, next you will be insisting that Fox news is fair and balanced and Glenn Beck is a centrist.

I don't want to keep you from work, so how about we call a truce for a few days to let you gather some evidence and then have a good 'peak oil' thread?

ruveyn
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 21 Sep 2008
Age: 89
Gender: Male
Posts: 31,502
Location: New Jersey

18 Jun 2012, 8:35 pm

androbot2084 wrote:

When the the economic system which is based on money collapses, everything will be free.

And what will people work for if they cannot be paid. Labor is not for free.

ruveyn

Tollorin
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 14 Jun 2009
Age: 44
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,178
Location: Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada

18 Jun 2012, 9:24 pm

So let me resume the article: "As the consumption of oil is rising more and more, there is no worry to have. The little magical fairy with it's magic wand will always ensure that a sufficient number of new reserves is discovered, forever and ever. There is no need to change our way of life with all the evil government regulations it imply, now go to sleep and let the holy power of private corporations take care of the problem, sleep tight, now that's a good boy."

Let's face it, with the demand that is rising exponantially unless we change the way our society is working, peak oil with limit of the ressource is unavoidable.

_________________
Down with speculators!! !

JWC
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Age: 47
Gender: Male
Posts: 740
Location: Macondo Wellhead

18 Jun 2012, 9:32 pm

Tollorin wrote:

Supply is rising faster than demand, and it also has a 54 year head start.

Kjas
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 26 Feb 2012
Age: 36
Gender: Female
Posts: 6,059
Location: the place I'm from doesn't exist anymore

18 Jun 2012, 11:59 pm

Vigilans wrote:

[I like how they also take a potshot at evolution, pointing out global warming is also "just a theory". Gravity is a theory too. Theoretical knowledge is responsible for allowing us to use this medium of communication (internet) (electronics- electrons- atomic theory?). The term theory is extremely misunderstood

This felt.... appropriate. :razz:

_________________
Diagnostic Tools and Resources for Women with AS: http://www.wrongplanet.net/postt211004.html

LKL
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 21 Jul 2007
Age: 50
Gender: Female
Posts: 7,402

19 Jun 2012, 12:32 am

JWC wrote:

From this it is obvious that oil reserves are increasing, not declining. Therefore we are discovering new oil deposits at a faster rate than we are consuming oil for production. Hence there is an oil surplus, not a shortage.

This is not the graph of a surplus product.
The whole site is worth looking at:
http://www.energyinsights.net/cgi-scrip ... 000139.htm

Jojoba
Toucan
Toucan

Joined: 7 Feb 2011
Gender: Male
Posts: 260

19 Jun 2012, 8:15 am

Europe is a dangerous situation, something to keep an eye on. What happens there, along with China and India economically for that matter, will effect America.

Not looking good in Spain this morning. It is looking more and more as if it is not possible to support the life style that many Europeans want, with early retirement and high benefits.

"Spain: Thanks for the $125 B, Can I Have $625 B More?"

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/ ... 25-b-more/

JWC
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Age: 47
Gender: Male
Posts: 740
Location: Macondo Wellhead

19 Jun 2012, 10:46 am

LKL wrote:

JWC wrote:

This is not the graph of a surplus product.
The whole site is worth looking at:
http://www.energyinsights.net/cgi-scrip ... 000139.htm

I'm pressed for time right now, but I'll check it out later today.

The first problem I see with the chart is that the price is not adjusted for inflation.

visagrunt
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 16 Oct 2009
Age: 59
Gender: Male
Posts: 6,118
Location: Vancouver, BC

19 Jun 2012, 11:49 am

While known reserves are increasing, the reserves themselves are decreasing. Petroleum is not being replaced as quickly as we extract it, and there is, axiomatically, a finite amount of it in the ground (and sitting around in swamps).

When it comes to supply and demand for petroleum product, crude reserves aren't actually the limiting factor on supply. All the crude in the world won't help you if you don't have the refinery capacity to turn it into usable fuels. And while we have spoken of cost of location, we have not spoken of cost of extraction, cost of refining, cost of transportation and cost of delivery.

But I don't see collapse inherent in any of this. The fundamentals are all there. Land is still tilled, commodities are still extracted, products are still manufactured, bought and sold, and services are still provided. While the movement of money has a significant impact on the economy, it is not, itself the economy--merely a measure of its size and scope.

_________________
--James

Oodain
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 30 Jan 2011
Age: 36
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,022
Location: in my own little tamarillo jungle,

19 Jun 2012, 12:29 pm

much of that increase also comes from new techonolgy allowing one to exctract oil we preiously could not, in many cases we knew it was there we simply couldnt get at it.

oil extracted this way is usually much more expensive to extract so when these harder to get reserves are the only option left we wil see a major increase in price even if it isnt directly scarce.

_________________
//through chaos comes complexity//

the scent of the tamarillo is pungent and powerfull,
woe be to the nose who nears it.

JWC
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Age: 47
Gender: Male
Posts: 740
Location: Macondo Wellhead

19 Jun 2012, 12:37 pm

Interesting:

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp

http://fintrend.com/charts/gold-vs-oil-chart/

Page 4 of 8 [ 123 posts ] Go to page Previous 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Next

Jump to:

Impending Global Economic Collapse Post Reply New Topic

Impending Global Economic Collapse