Who actually thinks a US gun ban would work?

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Do you think a US gun ban would work?
Yes 9%  9%  [ 5 ]
No 56%  56%  [ 31 ]
Somewhat 16%  16%  [ 9 ]
Unsure 7%  7%  [ 4 ]
I hate guns and have an unreasonable aversion to them! 4%  4%  [ 2 ]
I love guns and have an unreasonable attachment to them! 4%  4%  [ 2 ]
(Those last two were tongue in cheek) 4%  4%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 55

The_Walrus
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23 Dec 2012, 9:42 am

PM wrote:
Yes, don't waste money on something that does not work.

Could you substantiate that claim?



b9
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23 Dec 2012, 9:52 am

Quote:
Who actually thinks a US gun ban would work?


well i do, as unpopular as my opinion may be.

guns in australia were outlawed after the "port arthur" massacre. there was a period of amnesty where people could surrender their guns (mandated) , and almost everyone surrendered their guns because if they did not they could be charged with illegal possession.

because guns are not legal in australia, i have no idea where i could procure one (if i was of that proclivity). i would have to know dangerous people in order to know where to acquire an illegal gun in this day and age. i know no one who is dangerous and criminally inclined, so i have no choices of where to acquire a gun, so i will remain without a gun.

the clown that shot the people in sandy hook did not seem like he was in cahoots with serious criminals, but he was able to acquire guns with ease because of the easy availability of guns in his world.

gun crime in australia still exists, but it only exists within the gangs and bikers who know where to procure them. those people usually shoot each other, and they are not nuts who go on rampages of suicidal killing sprees of innocent people who present no obstacles to them.

if only the most hardened criminals can acquire guns, then they will most likely cull their own populations with them.

an ordinary suicidal person who wants to take many people lives to accompany them to heaven is not able to source a gun in australia. the only people in australia that know where to get guns, are seriously violent criminals who have no interest in harming ordinary people.

if i wanted to acquire a gun, i would have no idea how to go about it, and i think that guns should not be available on the free market.

i do not fear being shot in the head by a mafioso. i am not on their radar. but if average people had guns...... then everyone should be wary. simple peoples tempers can be very destructive if they have a gun at their disposal.

i would have to go to the most rotten parts of sydney and make friends with the most hardened criminals in order to gain access to the information of where to buy a gun.

that will never happen, and for people who wish they had a gun it will also not happen because guns are only advertised to the select violent few who are in the know,

a global "mexican standoff" is the only outcome that can be predicted in the event that everyone has a gun.



The_Walrus
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23 Dec 2012, 9:59 am

If a gun ban ever had the political capital to put it through, I think it would work because it would be indicative of the US culture progressing. If it magically appeared, it wouldn't work.



Dillogic
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23 Dec 2012, 10:09 am

b9 wrote:
[guns in australia were outlawed after the "port arthur" massacre. there was a period of amnesty where people could surrender their guns (mandated) , and almost everyone surrendered their guns because if they did not they could be charged with illegal possession.


Incorrect.

The possession of semi-automatic rifles and pump-action shotguns (but pump-action rifles are fine. Ha) were restricted to those in primary produce (before it was fine for recreational shooters). All other "sporting" arms are legal in Australia (even semi-automatic pistols), provided you supply a genuine reason to the relevant authorities (recreation, for example). The laws are the same state by state and it's similar to car licensing and registration.

Also, the jury is still out whether the restrictions on the firearms above have led to any decrease in actual murders and violent crime. Some of the early studies -- done by the pro- and anti- sides, using the same data, came up with conflicting data (most likely using methodology to "prove" their point of view, which when you think about it, shows how uncertain the actual data is). The latest study, which seems to be unbiased (from a university for that particular reason), shows that it has had little to no effect. They admit that they'd like several more years of data before coming to a definite conclusion though,

Something funny: did you know that Martin Bryant actually wasn't legally entitled to own the weapons he used anyway (so any law passed wouldn't have done a thing)? And that he purchased them illegally? Some facts that seem to be forgotten.

I've shown in another thread that rates of firearm ownership and homicides have little relation. It's all well to say that the more firearms equate to a higher rate of "firearm violence" (it doesn't always though), but that totally neglects the overall rate -- whether someone is shot or stabbed means very little.

Also, you just have to go to your local gunshop and ask the dude behind the counter how to go about buying one. It requires lots of forms and fees from the police, but it's been like that since before Port Authur.



Last edited by Dillogic on 23 Dec 2012, 10:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

ruveyn
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23 Dec 2012, 10:12 am

Criminals would still get all the guns they want to get. Honest and sane citizens would have to depend exclusively on police (who at their best cannot get to an emergency on time). It would be a death sentence for honest and sane citizens who would if they could defend themselves, their children and their homes from armed marauders.

I oppose a general ban on guns to civilians (i.e. non-police and non-military).

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PM
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23 Dec 2012, 10:39 am

The_Walrus wrote:
PM wrote:
Yes, don't waste money on something that does not work.

Could you substantiate that claim?


Think of it as a replay of Prohibition or the Drug War.


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ruveyn
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23 Dec 2012, 10:47 am

PM wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
PM wrote:
Yes, don't waste money on something that does not work.

Could you substantiate that claim?


Think of it as a replay of Prohibition or the Drug War.


I think you have a point. But please note that it is easier to make bathtub gin than it is to make decent fire arms in one's basement or garage. Why? Alcohol production by fermentation of sugars is as natural as sunshine. Guns require reasonable precise machines to produce and product that will not blow apart in the hands of its user.

Prohibition will no doubt produce a plague of zip-guns.

ruveyn



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23 Dec 2012, 11:09 am

I don't think more gun control will work in the USA, because it hasn't worked in the UK.

Look at the homicide rate over the 20th century for the UK.

It actually begun to rise in the 60's, then they brought in the Firearms act and it continued to rise even more. If you look at the more recent statistics, it continued to rise after the 1997 handgun ban, brought in because of people panicking after the Dunblane mass killing. It's been a total failure here in the UK. I don't really see why it would be any different in the US (in fact, I suspect it would lead to more criminals getting guns as people tried to get rid of their now illegal firearms - after 1997, the number of handguns used in crimes went up by 40% here).

So, remind me - what gun did Timothy McVeigh use?



Jacoby
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23 Dec 2012, 11:19 am

The_Walrus wrote:
Tequila wrote:
0_equals_true wrote:
Switzerland is just behind Turkey, Chile and US in the developed world for gun homicides, so it is not super low.


Actually, it's further down than that. It's 31st on the list. You're confusing the total death rate with the gun homicide rate. The Swiss are six times more likely to use their guns to kill themselves than to use them to off other people.

Aren't suicides and accidents relevant?

Switzerland has 0.52 gun homicides per 100,000 per year. This compares poorly to the 0.18 in Austria or the 0.06 in Germany.

The Swiss are over 3 times more likely to be killed by a gun than the Germans, and significantly more likely than the Austrians.


No, it is not relevant. Germans and Swiss are statistically about as likely to kill themselves regardless so the method makes very little difference.



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23 Dec 2012, 11:26 am

Update:
This poll now shows 70% do not think a gun ban would work.


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Jacoby
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23 Dec 2012, 11:38 am

0_equals_true wrote:
A gun ban isn't going to happen in the US, I don't think anyone realistically thinks that is going to happen.

What I think should be looked into is the gun culture. That is a vastly different thing from banning.

People pipe on about the 2nd Amendment like it alone personifies American gun culture, it doesn't. The forefathers were more perceptive than is given credit, having said that they didn't think of everything.

  • The 2nd Amendment doesn't mention personal self-defense in relation to crime.
  • The 2nd Amendment doesn't mention sport or recreation.
  • The 2nd Amendment doesn't mention hunting for food.
  • The 2nd Amendment refers to defense against tyranny.
  • The 2nd Amendment doesn't mention ownership. Arguably 'keep' and 'bear' aren't the same as 'own', not even in historic language.
  • The 2nd Amendment doesn't mention arsenals of weapons. It doesn't say you are guaranteed your own personal arsenals of weapons. It doesn't say you can have any number of weapons. It doesn't say you can have any sort of weapons, or unlimited weapons. In the context of the war of Independence we are really talking about muskets, and pitchforks. Most of the gun weren't even suitable to be fired indoors.
  • The 2nd Amendment specifically mentions a well regulated militia. I'm sorry but in no way are the bulk of gun owners in the US a regulated militia. You might say the Military is. However this word "Regulated" is key. The key is the forefathers anticipated that if people are to hold and bear weapons it would need to be regulated well. This hasn't really happened.

This is all in the the context of the American Independence struggle. So it is fair to say the the 2nd Amendment is probably one of the most misappropriated pieces of legislature in the US. Herein lies a cultural difference. In older countries a constitution is something that has evolved, and it is not a single document, but many pieces of law. I suppose with new countries you have the opportunity to have a designer constitution. Having said that nothing is going to be without clarification, not even in the US. They obviously do and have, but there is a culture of constitutional absolutism, which is kind of ridiculous.

The gun obsession in US is why people think the solution is in guns. If you think the solution is in gun you are kidding yourself. It is total pipe dream stuff. Yes you can take care or your own personal safety. I myself have benefited in context. But it is really short-sighted if you think that you can secure all corner of society, and that as a national policy that arming schools is going to work practically and economically.

Let us delve into that a bit more. This idea that self-defense is all about set scenario is bs. I do self defense training 2-3 times a week. If you have this mentality you have already lost, because no situation is ever exactly the same twice.

Ok so the shooter knows there are guns in the school, they aren't bothered about dying any way, they decide to shoot come up to the window and just shoot with their military grade assault rifle, take potshot or just spray the classroom, they will hit one target, if they don't get killed then move on to other target other than the school. So they hit the class room, it happens pretty quickly they kill some children, the security are still at the other side of the school, the may not even know what it going on. The teacher if not killed, struggles to get over to the gun safe in the closet, the attack is over in a few seconds, with multiple dead. Even if the teacher had a holster weapon (which poses some issues in itself), they are unlikely going to be fast enough to be able to use it.

What are the next logical conclusions? Expensive perimeter and prison-like environment with 24/7 monitoring? Full on armed team in school, occupying the entire ground floor and more above, with classrooms above? No windows on ground floor, except if bullet proof small, and opaque? Even if this is scalable, which it isn't, is this really the environment you want for you children in a place of learning?

One of the really mistake here is just focusing on events, either hypothetical or real. It is missing the bigger picture, just focusing on how the scenario plays out when it goes wrong. It doesn't take into consideration how that approach is goign to to impact the chances of this happening more or less. People make assumptions on simplistic terms, but if that were the case the incidence wouldn't be so high.

You keep hearing people cite Switzerland like it is a good example. I'm sorry to break it to you, but look at the stats, it is higher than average in gun crime. I'm not trying to knock Switzerland, I'm just pointing out the fallacy of this. Secondly it has less guns per head then the US. It is much better regulated, by being the organized militia the isn't int US. They get what they arm issued with, personal arms. Switzerland is just behind Turkey, Chile and US in the developed world for gun homicides, so it is not super low. The US position is high not only for the developed world but also in the developing world. So just covering ears and eyes isn't a good idea.

The reason why the US has 90% guns isn't because 90% of people have guns, it is because some people have a lot of guns, and many that own guns have more than one. This in itself is an imbalance. You have had so called 'militia' conspire to overthrow the government, or declare their own independence. This couldn't be further from Switzerland.

Interestingly Israel has 1/12th personal arms than the US. This is a country with active national service, with likely front line duties. Yet for personal use, they don't feel the need to be armed. Counter initiative given the security situation. They trust their military and police. Japan has seriously low gun ownership only a 1/10th of Israel. That is less then 1% of the US. This is all proportional to population.

In Mexico the Cartels, I would be the first to admit they could get their guns from anywhere. But they choose not to, they choose to get their guns through legal channels in the US. Why? Because they can get their hand on state of the art guns quite easily that not even the Mexican military can afford.

I for one think there should be a context where people can enjoy and use assault weapons, safely. But this idea that you should be able to take home anything you like really takes the biscuit. There has to be limitations. What next rpg, mortars, heavy artillery, some chemical weapons, a small nuclear warhead? It is a joke, but on the other hand there has been a slow creep toward more and more different kind of weapons in personal use, without real restrictions.

Is it just going to be mud slinging and mutual suspicion or is there going to be a sensible debate?

I was really disappointed in the NRA's response because they had an opportunity. Instead they blamed easy targets, which whilst there may be a grain of truth, there is no evidence that this particular killer was motivated by movies an video games. This seemed to me like a childish response. It would have been better if they had simply said they has no recommendations, and would be researching.


No. The constitution is based on natural rights. The right to life and the right to defend it is an natural right and the right to bear arms is an integral part of that and that is why it was specifically enumerated. Our constitution does not grant rights, it protects our natural rights. Self defense, hunting, and defense against tyranny are all well within our natural rights. Just because something isn't enumerated in the constitution does not mean it doesn't exist, our constitution is actually pretty clear about that. It is a restriction on what our government can do, not a restriction on what the people can do.



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23 Dec 2012, 12:04 pm

If the 2nd amendment doesn't protect the right to own modern firearms then it stands to reason that the 1st amendment doesn't protect free speech using the internet since the internet did not exist when those amendments were enacted in the late 18th century.


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b9
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23 Dec 2012, 12:10 pm

the fact that everything revolves around "amendments" speaks volumes.



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23 Dec 2012, 12:25 pm

Jacoby wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
Aren't suicides and accidents relevant?

Switzerland has 0.52 gun homicides per 100,000 per year. This compares poorly to the 0.18 in Austria or the 0.06 in Germany.

The Swiss are over 3 times more likely to be killed by a gun than the Germans, and significantly more likely than the Austrians.


No, it is not relevant. Germans and Swiss are statistically about as likely to kill themselves regardless so the method makes very little difference.

I don't think you understood my post. What I meant was "don't suicides and accidents matter?", not whether there was any point to them.

After the Australian gun ban, there was no evidence of "substitution" happening with suicides. The suicide rate dropped along with the gun suicide rate. So maybe Germans just have more stressful lives, or worse mental health provision.

Magneto wrote:
I don't think more gun control will work in the USA, because it hasn't worked in the UK.

Look at the homicide rate over the 20th century for the UK.

It actually begun to rise in the 60's, then they brought in the Firearms act and it continued to rise even more. If you look at the more recent statistics, it continued to rise after the 1997 handgun ban, brought in because of people panicking after the Dunblane mass killing. It's been a total failure here in the UK. I don't really see why it would be any different in the US (in fact, I suspect it would lead to more criminals getting guns as people tried to get rid of their now illegal firearms - after 1997, the number of handguns used in crimes went up by 40% here).

So, remind me - what gun did Timothy McVeigh use?

Hmm. The statistics here (for those of you unfamiliar with the British press, the Telegraph is a right wing Broadsheet newspaper), homicides stayed roughly constant from 1994 to 2000, except for 1996. The only increase came three years after the gun ban, and that's made to look scarier by the Harold Shipman murders (which no gun would have stopped). Since the crackdown on knives, homicides have fallen further and we now have levels of homicide comparable to the 1980s.

So basically, once any gun ban is enforced, it helps if police and prosecutors also treat people who carry other concealed weapons harshly too.



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23 Dec 2012, 12:27 pm

it would be a disaster.you cant ban what is already on the black market.you would only disarm the honest

also there are legal gun owners who would never use a gun in a crime or hurt someone.however the goverment wont offer full retail value for return of banned guns.so lawfull gun owners who wouldnt hurt someone but maybe lack scrupples could cash in on there gun collection by selling them on the black market which would flood the streets with even more guns


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23 Dec 2012, 12:29 pm

The 2nd amendment should be taken at face value. Any attempt in trying to "modernize" the Constitution, as Obama has implied, could very well lead to tyranny. Here's a good pic:

Image