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Mootoo
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26 Oct 2016, 1:51 am

What's Brexit and Columbia (people simply voted no to letting murderers run free... Americans would need to vote yes to a (possible) rapist, on the other hand)... got to do with anything... first, referenda only have two options, there are at least four presidential candidates, not to mention the election of congress and their own referenda underneath...

What's strange is how some (automated?) polls seem unable to call cellphones, as opposed to landlines... but I think some do, anyway.

Really, this Brexit connection is only a remnant of Drumpf's festering delusions... and apparently he sees connections in absolutely everything while listening to Alex Jones.



auntblabby
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26 Oct 2016, 2:26 am

I won't believe this monster's not 10 feet tall until I see him shrunk back down to size. IOW the democrats are being infuriatingly over-optimistic.



Sigbold
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26 Oct 2016, 5:47 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Latest Polls - Real Clear Politics

Combined Clinton 41, Trump 36, Johnson 7, Stein 3. Clinton +5.

Taking this at face value Trump is significantly behind for this very late stage but not put away by any stage of the imagination.

Trump's demise has been wrongly predicted for 15 months


A potential problem might be that poller are oversampling certain groups, in order to get more favourable (for them) results.



Mootoo
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26 Oct 2016, 6:18 am

Well, four years ago they thought they were oversampled so much Romney had even set up a transition team, only to be frustrated by reality.



Sigbold
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26 Oct 2016, 6:54 am

Mootoo wrote:
Well, four years ago they thought they were oversampled so much Romney had even set up a transition team, only to be frustrated by reality.


Actually there is at least one leaked email that seems to state a concious policy to oversample.

Quote:
I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc.



Jacoby
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26 Oct 2016, 7:26 am

People like to use 'conspiracy theorist' as a pejorative but hard to blame them for being paranoid when they keep being right again and again.



The_Walrus
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26 Oct 2016, 9:37 am

Most polls have well-documented house biases, including in Trump's favour, but we can account for them.

The thing that is keeping Trump's hopes alive is the large number of undecided and third-party voters at this stage in the election, but we don't know whether those people will vote for Trump or Clinton or third party or not at all. The latest set of polls from Ohio are good for him. Arizona's still a contest and Iowa is underpolled. North Carolina, Florida and Nevada are all in play although most polls are showing Clinton winning those consistently. But winning any other swing states will be very unlikely for Trump unless all the undecideds and third parties decide to back him.

He's also running out of opportunities to screw it up. It's unlikely he'll manage to do anything as bad and high profile as during the debates again.

There's no need to panic. There's still a better chance of Clinton winning Georgia than Trump winning the election. But we should be realistic and admit that there's still a chance things could go badly wrong for America.



ASPartOfMe
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26 Oct 2016, 12:14 pm

auntblabby wrote:
I won't believe this monster's not 10 feet tall until I see him shrunk back down to size. IOW the democrats are being infuriatingly over-optimistic.


I think this is partially some residual old 60's idealism. A lot of it is the assumption because things have always been a certain way it will always be that way we all fall prey to at times.


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auntblabby
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27 Oct 2016, 2:36 am

this tv show [below] from the 90s seems to have predicted the state of today's GOP-



Mootoo
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27 Oct 2016, 8:48 am

This TV show ends with the characters accidentally triggering the ice age effectively creating a doom of their own making... we know who believes absolutely every conspiracy theory in existence but somehow not climate change.



auntblabby
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27 Oct 2016, 5:04 pm

when he gets in office, we're all screwed, even though some of us don't know it yet.



ASPartOfMe
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28 Oct 2016, 1:54 pm

We have had our second "October Surprise". First the was the Obamacare news and now thr FBI has reopened the email probe. Since most people think she is corrupt anyway this probably will not change the result but it makes impeachment more likely if she wins.


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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 28 Oct 2016, 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

androbot01
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28 Oct 2016, 1:55 pm

And burning at the stake more likely if she loses.



Kovu
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28 Oct 2016, 5:10 pm

Just a quick question, America.

Do you guys think the elections will be rigged?

I wouldn't be surprised if those wacky machines herpderped while counting the votes again.

Being impartial I see a 0-0 tie for the moment, but pretty much anything can happen within the next two weeks.



androbot01
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28 Oct 2016, 5:14 pm

Kovu wrote:
Just a quick question, America.

Do you guys think the elections will be rigged?

I wouldn't be surprised if those wacky machines herpderped while counting the votes again.

Being impartial I see a 0-0 tie for the moment, but pretty much anything can happen within the next two weeks.


I'm Canadian, but I don't think your elections are rigged. Mostly because they are state run not national, and the conservative states would have no motivation to rig toward Hillary. I don't think it is appropriate for the Trump supporters to identify themselves with t-shirts, voting is supposed to be anonymous.



yelekam
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28 Oct 2016, 7:02 pm

well, we'll find out in less than two weeks.