Who do you think will win the 2020 election?

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this is so stressful.

I'd be curious to know which states each of the parties are focussing their campaign's attention towards, and what the 2016 results in them were, as that would provide an idea of what the parties' internal polling shows...

Are both parties campaiging in the same states, or is one (or both) avoiding some of the "key" states, either becuase they may feel confident about a good result (the other party would likely be campaigning there to try and bring it into play), or as they feel it is a lost cause?

It would also be interesting to know if either party is campaiging in seats that were considered less likely to be in question, based on 2016 (or even 2018), either as an indication the party doesn't feel confident there now (and needs extra support), or they feel they have a chance to unseat their opponent.

It no longer matters who wins. The USA is f!cked, regardless of the winner.

I don't think there is a link between racism and political affiliations.

Both campaigns are focusing on Florida and Pennsylvania. These are the two most important states - large, roughly in the middle of the country opinion wise, and likely to be won by the overall winner - so it makes sense.

Away from those two states, I would argue Biden’s spending is slightly more sensible. Both campaigns have emphasised states who will be able to give a definitive result on election night. These include North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona, and Georgia. Currently it would seem that Biden is likely to win three of those four states, but they are all certainly competitive.

The Trump campaign has deprioritised Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nevada. These are the third, fourth, fifth, and eighth most likely states to decide the election. All four are looking very comfortable for Biden. The Trump campaign seems to have given up on Minnesota in particular (which voted for Clinton, but only narrowly), while it isn’t spending as much as it should on Michigan and Wisconsin. The Biden campaign on the other hand still has Michigan as its third priority, which is about right, and is outspending Trump in Minnesota. Neither party is paying enough attention to Wisconsin. Nevada is a smaller state by population so a like-for-like might not be so helpful, but I’d argue it is bring overlooked by many.

Sources:

Facebook spending: https://twitter.com/MrArenge/status/131 ... 57/photo/2 (this is what I have leaned on the most)
Advertising generally: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/09/joe-bid ... lenge.html

(I’ve seen better reports on TV advertising but couldn’t find them again - nonetheless, they showed a similar pattern)

Well, the polling has largely continued to drift towards Biden. Georgia in particular has seen some strong polling not just for Biden, but also Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. (I have been saying for weeks that a Warnock victory is by far the biggest threat to ACB being confirmed, but that is a topic for elsewhere)

On advertising, it seems the Trump campaign is scaling back further in Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin:
https://mobile.twitter.com/mediumbuying ... 22785?s=21

But buying in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Iowa:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MediumBuying ... 6361090059

(There is a discrepancy between the tweets - the one saying they’re not spending in Wisconsin is later)

Those four states are competitive in the Presidential election (Trump needs to win at least three of them). But what separates them from Wisconsin, Ohio and Minnesota is that they have somewhat competitive senate races this year. Possibly a coincidence.

Strategically it is an odd play for Trump. It is very difficult for him to win without Ohio, where he is polling OK but very fragile. Wisconsin is one of the three states most likely to decide the election and Trump is trailing badly. Minnesota looks like it might be out of reach, but would help compensate for the loss of Wisconsin and/or Michigan.

Trump cannot win the election if he loses Florida. He won Florida by less than 1% in 2016.

Latest Hill/Harris poll has him tied with Biden in Florida.

"The Hill/Harris poll also showed Biden leading by nine points in Michigan, another state Trump narrowly won in 2016. Additionally, the poll showed Biden and Trump tied at 48 percent in Florida"
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... vania-poll

We shall see when the votes actually start getting counted.....

Polls don't mean a whole lot, to be honest.

I Am not liking the stress being built up around this election ...... by mainstream media . Imho

Yep....lots of mudslinging is occurring from both major parties.

The political dialogue has reached a low ebb.

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Frankly, I don’t give a damn. Neither candidate is worth 2 sacks of dogsh!t.

Over the past 45 years, the only politico that was anywhere near honest was Jimmy Carter, and he did his best work AFTER he was out of office.

I did vote by mail, but after the 2016 election, I vowed that I wouldNEVER vote for a Democrat or a Republican for as long as I live. I voted Green, although I’ll probably regret doing so, since I have big issues with their platform on LGBTQ, and their stance on abortion, let alone being accused of throwing away my vote.

Personally, I’d rather see a nanny state, since we, the people, are no longer capable of making a good and righteous decisions, as well as being capable of taking care of themselves, let alone others.

people lie to pollsters in a most sociopathic fashion. therefore, i can't have faith in any poll that indicates a 10 point spread in favor of biden. i remember how we were all suckered in 2016.