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NTs Are Unable to Grasp The Simple Concepts of Probability.

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Sargon
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05 May 2008, 9:38 pm

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what is there exactly in a cryo-facility buried deep in the arizona desert, buried and/or lost for a thousand years etc etc that you wouldnt want to steal? A veritable treasure trove regardless of what level civilisation is at when you find it.


Assuming civilization collapses in a few hundred years and the world is like one in the Fallout series, then maybe. Otherwise, it would probably be safe to assume the facility would still be operational and not anymore likely target of theft than it currently is (you don't go looting the White House, do you?).



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05 May 2008, 9:50 pm

Sargon wrote:
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what is there exactly in a cryo-facility buried deep in the arizona desert, buried and/or lost for a thousand years etc etc that you wouldnt want to steal? A veritable treasure trove regardless of what level civilisation is at when you find it.


Assuming civilization collapses in a few hundred years and the world is like one in the Fallout series, then maybe. Otherwise, it would probably be safe to assume the facility would still be operational and not anymore likely target of theft than it currently is (you don't go looting the White House, do you?).


Not personally, but some people are very fond of burning it down...No facility is ever completely secure, regardless of isolation.


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Sargon
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06 May 2008, 6:23 am

Why would anyone want to burn it down? Acceptance of such practices will likely increase over time, not decrease.



Sand
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06 May 2008, 7:13 am

Evidently that's something outside your capability to calculate.



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06 May 2008, 8:31 am

Sargon wrote:
Why would anyone want to burn it down? Acceptance of such practices will likely increase over time, not decrease.


It already occured. War of 1812...


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06 May 2008, 12:39 pm

Sand wrote:
Evidently that's something outside your capability to calculate.

Well, everything is outside of your ability to perfectly calculate, the issue is NEVER perfect calculation but rather approximation. The fact of the matter is that your chances of survival would still be above 0%.

Macbeth wrote:
It already occured. War of 1812...

Yes, in a war. How many wars do we see in the West? Like Sargon said, you only need to worry if something like the Fallout series happens, and there is not a lot of reason to see that happen as we have not had a major war in over 50 years. Really though, there would still be little reason for looting the area if a war happened anyway as a cryogenics center would not have a lot worth looting during a war.



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06 May 2008, 1:26 pm

Awesomelyglorious wrote:
Sand wrote:
Evidently that's something outside your capability to calculate.

Well, everything is outside of your ability to perfectly calculate, the issue is NEVER perfect calculation but rather approximation. The fact of the matter is that your chances of survival would still be above 0%.

Macbeth wrote:
It already occured. War of 1812...

Yes, in a war. How many wars do we see in the West? Like Sargon said, you only need to worry if something like the Fallout series happens, and there is not a lot of reason to see that happen as we have not had a major war in over 50 years. Really though, there would still be little reason for looting the area if a war happened anyway as a cryogenics center would not have a lot worth looting during a war.


Looting, rapine and random destruction often dont reflect the worth of the item or activity. Not having a war in 50 years is not reason to believe it can't happen, especially as we might be talking on a long timescale. Also, It doesnt take a war for arson to occur.. and people are not above fire-bombing other types of clinic for whatever reason.


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06 May 2008, 1:31 pm

Macbeth wrote:
Looting, rapine and random destruction often dont reflect the worth of the item or activity. Not having a war in 50 years is not reason to believe it can't happen, especially as we might be talking on a long timescale. Also, It doesnt take a war for arson to occur.. and people are not above fire-bombing other types of clinic for whatever reason.

They are reflective of multiple things. Not only that, but the argument was not against possibility but against likelihood. If we have had the longest period of peace, and are still in that period of peace, and the material, military, and other conditions are such that they should maintain this peace, then the expectation of peace seems good. As well, arson? Arson is not *that* common where one needs to be paranoid about it, especially for something that would likely not have value to arson and be protected above average and be punishable above average.



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06 May 2008, 1:39 pm

Awesomelyglorious wrote:
Macbeth wrote:
Looting, rapine and random destruction often dont reflect the worth of the item or activity. Not having a war in 50 years is not reason to believe it can't happen, especially as we might be talking on a long timescale. Also, It doesnt take a war for arson to occur.. and people are not above fire-bombing other types of clinic for whatever reason.

They are reflective of multiple things. Not only that, but the argument was not against possibility but against likelihood. If we have had the longest period of peace, and are still in that period of peace, and the material, military, and other conditions are such that they should maintain this peace, then the expectation of peace seems good. As well, arson? Arson is not *that* common where one needs to be paranoid about it, especially for something that would likely not have value to arson and be protected above average and be punishable above average.


It doesnt take much to put two and two together.. a facility that will extend the lifetime and survivability of everyones favourite western infidels? Sounds like a good target for a petrol bomb to me... (assuming I was some form of heathen etc etc.)

The odds of success here seem to rely on an unknown... the cure for death in many and various forms. The longer the patients/victims/whatever are in storage, the greater the chance that medical science will find the answer, but also the more vulnerable they become, be it through war, terrorism, a series of unfortunate events, geophysical upheaval, stock market crashes, alien invasion, or just the belief its a waste of time and money... nothing is infallible, no building so secure, no company so solid, no nation or empire so unassailable... but what it comes down to is hope, and the will to survive.. both things impossible to quantify.


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06 May 2008, 6:16 pm

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It doesnt take much to put two and two together.. a facility that will extend the lifetime and survivability of everyones favourite western infidels? Sounds like a good target for a petrol bomb to me... (assuming I was some form of heathen etc etc.)


Because the most logical target to strike at those Western infidels is a cryonics lab and not say a World Trade Center or other big picture target?

Quote:
The odds of success here seem to rely on an unknown... the cure for death in many and various forms. The longer the patients/victims/whatever are in storage, the greater the chance that medical science will find the answer, but also the more vulnerable they become, be it through war, terrorism, a series of unfortunate events, geophysical upheaval, stock market crashes, alien invasion, or just the belief its a waste of time and money... nothing is infallible, no building so secure, no company so solid, no nation or empire so unassailable... but what it comes down to is hope, and the will to survive.. both things impossible to quantify.


Again, the probability of a major war in the foreseeable future is fairly low. Let's also not forget the United States has not been militarily invaded by a foreign force since the War of 1812. As for other random/unknown factors, yes, they could occur and you could also estimate the probability of them occurring when making your calculation (so the 1% is supposed to include all that). Alien invasions seem extremely unlikely, so a low probability would be assigned to it. You should never concern yourself about something bad that can happen, but rather the probability of the bad thing occurring to you (and its cost). If you are considered about every possible bad thing that could happen, I ask you, "What have you done to prepare for a bolt of lightening striking you on your way to work/class?" It could happen, but it seems highly unlikely. Even if the United States does collapse or is invaded, that does not mean everything and everyone in it ceases to exist; there would just be a new form of government most likely.



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06 May 2008, 10:20 pm

"Again, the probability of a major war in the foreseeable future is fairly low."

LOL



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06 May 2008, 11:26 pm

Sargon wrote:
Quote:
It doesnt take much to put two and two together.. a facility that will extend the lifetime and survivability of everyones favourite western infidels? Sounds like a good target for a petrol bomb to me... (assuming I was some form of heathen etc etc.)


Because the most logical target to strike at those Western infidels is a cryonics lab and not say a World Trade Center or other big picture target?



Quote:
The odds of success here seem to rely on an unknown... the cure for death in many and various forms. The longer the patients/victims/whatever are in storage, the greater the chance that medical science will find the answer, but also the more vulnerable they become, be it through war, terrorism, a series of unfortunate events, geophysical upheaval, stock market crashes, alien invasion, or just the belief its a waste of time and money... nothing is infallible, no building so secure, no company so solid, no nation or empire so unassailable... but what it comes down to is hope, and the will to survive.. both things impossible to quantify.


Again, the probability of a major war in the foreseeable future is fairly low. Let's also not forget the United States has not been militarily invaded by a foreign force since the War of 1812. As for other random/unknown factors, yes, they could occur and you could also estimate the probability of them occurring when making your calculation (so the 1% is supposed to include all that). Alien invasions seem extremely unlikely, so a low probability would be assigned to it. You should never concern yourself about something bad that can happen, but rather the probability of the bad thing occurring to you (and its cost). If you are considered about every possible bad thing that could happen, I ask you, "What have you done to prepare for a bolt of lightening striking you on your way to work/class?" It could happen, but it seems highly unlikely. Even if the United States does collapse or is invaded, that does not mean everything and everyone in it ceases to exist; there would just be a new form of government most likely.


Terrorism here is a rather local affair. Its not all about the big wow, but the bodycount on the bus route.

My point is, it doesnt take much for something to become a target. Maybe not the muslims, or the christians, or the jews, or the whichever. Heres another one: changes in law.. not a shitlot you can do about those, but they happen all the time. The end result is still the same.. the odds of anyone or thing surviving reach zero on a long enough timescale.


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07 May 2008, 7:17 am

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"Again, the probability of a major war in the foreseeable future is fairly low."

LOL


If you've studied the Cold War, you'd know one reason why this is true, and if you've studied economics, you'd know the other.

Even assuming local terrorists, as you say would be more likely to go for a high body count ala buses. Killing those already dead would not really be as effective....
If a law were to be passed that would ban cryonics, you'd still be ok under the ex post-facto section of the law (even then, it seems unlikely they would pass a law banning it seeing as how we are becoming increasingly socially liberal relative to the past). Also, if there were to be public anti-cryonic sentiment on such a scale that would merit terrorism or law changes, it would have likely already happened by now (considering most people are usually offended by something new and evil not old and evil; hell, even a Catholic bishop blessed one the pods). The scale here is also only a few hundred years, so the odds should still be "reasonable" (i.e. my belief in the 1-10% chance). Alcor actually looked into alot of these factors and explained it in more depth (http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/WillCryonicsWork.html).



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07 May 2008, 8:34 am

Sargon wrote:
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"Again, the probability of a major war in the foreseeable future is fairly low."

LOL


If you've studied the Cold War, you'd know one reason why this is true, and if you've studied economics, you'd know the other.

Even assuming local terrorists, as you say would be more likely to go for a high body count ala buses. Killing those already dead would not really be as effective....
If a law were to be passed that would ban cryonics, you'd still be ok under the ex post-facto section of the law (even then, it seems unlikely they would pass a law banning it seeing as how we are becoming increasingly socially liberal relative to the past). Also, if there were to be public anti-cryonic sentiment on such a scale that would merit terrorism or law changes, it would have likely already happened by now (considering most people are usually offended by something new and evil not old and evil; hell, even a Catholic bishop blessed one the pods). The scale here is also only a few hundred years, so the odds should still be "reasonable" (i.e. my belief in the 1-10% chance). Alcor actually looked into alot of these factors and explained it in more depth (http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/WillCryonicsWork.html).



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07 May 2008, 9:05 am

Shall we settle at cryonics being a low probability, and get back to establishing why being black lowers the odds for aspie chavs sister? Im not so sure all the cryonics stuff is relevant


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07 May 2008, 8:10 pm

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Shall we settle at cryonics being a low probability, and get back to establishing why being black lowers the odds for aspie chavs sister? Im not so sure all the cryonics stuff is relevant


Well, the point was cryonics has a low probability (sort of, actually the point was a counter to the belief that one would spend as much as possible to extend one's own life regardless of probability), but despite that you should go for it because of the expected value (expected value being one of those important things in probability). As for why aspie chavs' sister being black reduces the odds of success, this was already mostly answered earlier. The topic then evolved into a more interested one on cryonics due to the those who have no grasp of probability or statistics.