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2020 Presidential Campaign - It’s on

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Darmok
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04 Mar 2020, 9:08 pm

This is very true. Everybody makes "gaffes," especially in a high-pressure media environment. But this is clearly old-age decline, not "gaffes." I can't stand Biden, but this is painful to watch – he really shouldn't have been allowed to get into this position by the people around him.

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Brictoria
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04 Mar 2020, 9:20 pm

Possibly a stupid question:

Will the fact that the main candidates come from different sections of the party (moderate Vs left, for want of more accurate definitions) rather than having 2 candidates from the same section be more or less likely to help when it comes to the "winner" and their chances at the presidential election later in the year?

To an outsider, it would seem that it would be more likely (particularly as both candidates are likely to start attacking the other (and their policies) more, the further into the selection process) that the winner is going to have pushed away supporters of the other candidate and with very different policy platforms, to have lost a number of otherwise potential voters for themselves (whereas 2 competing candidates from the same section would share similar policies, making them more palatable to supporters of the other side), and so I was wondering if this is likely to be a bigger factor in the final turn-out than the dislike of the incumbent.

It would also be interesting to see whether the successful candidate's current support comes more from the "safe" Democrat areas, or from the Republican areas/those areas of your country where Trump has more support (or whether it is more "random"/evenly distributed between the 2). As I'm not too familiar with this break-down, I'd guess that Biden is more likely to be "popular" in the (R) and "Trump" areas, while Sanders is more likely to be popular in the safe (D) sections, which would appear to indicate that Biden is probably the better option for the party to select from an electoral college votes point of view...But I could easily be wrong.



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04 Mar 2020, 10:09 pm

^ The fireworks will take place July 13–16 at the Democrat convention in Milwaukee. That's where the party's nominee will be officially chosen. Unfortunately, I think it may turn out to be a violent event, like the infamous 1968 Democrat convention. There is no way the inner circle will let Bernie win, and there's no way Bernie's people will accept that peacefully.

The heavy duty stuff happening behind the scenes right now is surely about who Biden's VP will be — but there aren't even any standouts there either. And I think they have a lot of lawyers working on the question of what to do it Biden is proven to be mentally or physically incompetent right before or after the election.


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04 Mar 2020, 11:29 pm

i wonder if anybody here remembers that in 1988 biden nicked a neil kinnock speech? it was thought then, in those more genteel times, that he was "damaged goods."



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05 Mar 2020, 11:28 am

Warren is out.

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-03-05/elizabeth-warren-to-end-presidential-campaign-report

Unless Tulsi can pull a Homer, it's a win for the patriarchy.


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05 Mar 2020, 12:17 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:
Warren is out.

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-03-05/elizabeth-warren-to-end-presidential-campaign-report

Unless Tulsi can pull a Homer, it's a win for the patriarchy.

She finished third in her home state. The only other path was denial.

Darmok wrote:
This is very true. Everybody makes "gaffes," especially in a high-pressure media environment. But this is clearly old-age decline, not "gaffes." I can't stand Biden, but this is painful to watch – he really shouldn't have been allowed to get into this position by the people around him.

No matter what I think of these candidates politically and personally I have to admire and respect these peoples ability to spend month after month flying from location to location, sleeping in hotels, eating bad food, engaging in small talk while pretending to be interested, having their every word and move judged guilty until proven innocent, without physically collapsing and going insane. I could not do that now at age 62, I could not do that at age 25. I think it is beyond the ability of most to do what these candidates do. Yet these people are chugging along in their 70s. That said the job of the President of the United States is likely to involve days upon days without normal sleep, interrupted sleep, or any sleep in uber unrelenting high pressure situations. In every debate Biden was fading by the end of the debate and that does not cut it.

There is an legitimate argument that Trump’s apparent cognitive decline plus narcissistic traits that go well beyond that of a normal politician makes Biden the lesser of two nightmares. But that should not result in the my team or the highway denial of what is obvious.


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05 Mar 2020, 6:27 pm

Warren is not endorsing anybody for now.


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05 Mar 2020, 6:31 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Tim_Tex wrote:
Warren is out.

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-03-05/elizabeth-warren-to-end-presidential-campaign-report

Unless Tulsi can pull a Homer, it's a win for the patriarchy.

She finished third in her home state. The only other path was denial.

Darmok wrote:
This is very true. Everybody makes "gaffes," especially in a high-pressure media environment. But this is clearly old-age decline, not "gaffes." I can't stand Biden, but this is painful to watch – he really shouldn't have been allowed to get into this position by the people around him.

No matter what I think of these candidates politically and personally I have to admire and respect these peoples ability to spend month after month flying from location to location, sleeping in hotels, eating bad food, engaging in small talk while pretending to be interested, having their every word and move judged guilty until proven innocent, without physically collapsing and going insane. I could not do that now at age 62, I could not do that at age 25. I think it is beyond the ability of most to do what these candidates do. Yet these people are chugging along in their 70s. That said the job of the President of the United States is likely to involve days upon days without normal sleep, interrupted sleep, or any sleep in uber unrelenting high pressure situations. In every debate Biden was fading by the end of the debate and that does not cut it.

There is an legitimate argument that Trump’s apparent cognitive decline plus narcissistic traits that go well beyond that of a normal politician makes Biden the lesser of two nightmares. But that should not result in the my team or the highway denial of what is obvious.


I think we will have a female president at some point, but I wonder how the Dems will react if the first female president is a Republican?


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05 Mar 2020, 6:42 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
Tim_Tex wrote:
Warren is out.

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-03-05/elizabeth-warren-to-end-presidential-campaign-report

Unless Tulsi can pull a Homer, it's a win for the patriarchy.

She finished third in her home state. The only other path was denial.

Darmok wrote:
This is very true. Everybody makes "gaffes," especially in a high-pressure media environment. But this is clearly old-age decline, not "gaffes." I can't stand Biden, but this is painful to watch – he really shouldn't have been allowed to get into this position by the people around him.

No matter what I think of these candidates politically and personally I have to admire and respect these peoples ability to spend month after month flying from location to location, sleeping in hotels, eating bad food, engaging in small talk while pretending to be interested, having their every word and move judged guilty until proven innocent, without physically collapsing and going insane. I could not do that now at age 62, I could not do that at age 25. I think it is beyond the ability of most to do what these candidates do. Yet these people are chugging along in their 70s. That said the job of the President of the United States is likely to involve days upon days without normal sleep, interrupted sleep, or any sleep in uber unrelenting high pressure situations. In every debate Biden was fading by the end of the debate and that does not cut it.

There is an legitimate argument that Trump’s apparent cognitive decline plus narcissistic traits that go well beyond that of a normal politician makes Biden the lesser of two nightmares. But that should not result in the my team or the highway denial of what is obvious.


I think we will have a female president at some point, but I wonder how the Dems will react if the first female president is a Republican?

Remember Sarah Palin 2008. Every sexist trope in the book was put out there.


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05 Mar 2020, 6:46 pm

trump's cognitive decline is there but is not as bad as biden's. the man literally cannot find the words at times. his own campaign staff has admitted that he is fine and alert during the day, but as the day goes on and into the evening he appears more visibly confused and struggles more.

my friends, that is called "SUNDOWNING"! it is an UNMISTAKABLE SYMPTOM of dementia! no doubt there are some people here who have seen firsthand what i mean.

to the extent that you believe getting rid of agent orange is priority number 1, does anyone really think that someone as far gone as joe, not knowing where he is, forgetting the words to the constitution, stands a chance? my prediction is that trump will ridicule him with "senile joe" (to which senile joe won't be able to form a response) and then win in a landslide. trump is a massive favorite for reelection, a republican who wins over a million primary votes in CALIFORNIA will not be easy to kick out...

joe "i love kids bouncing on my lap" biden.

joe "running for the united states senate" biden

joe "you know the thing" biden

joe "i'm the guy that came back after meeting with deng xiaoping" biden

joe "i believe poor kids are just as bright as white kids" biden

does his wife not care at all? how is she and his entire campaign team not guilty of elder abuse by keeping him in the race?

he needs help. fortunately, once bernie is president he'll get it for free.


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Darmok
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06 Mar 2020, 6:45 pm

The Democratic Party sure does hate women and minorities.


DNC Changes Debate Qualifications, Excluding Tulsi Gabbard

The qualifying criteria for the next Democratic debate are out, and they manage to exclude the only veteran and only woman of color left in the race: Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D–Hawaii).

https://reason.com/2020/03/06/dnc-chang ... i-gabbard/


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07 Mar 2020, 8:21 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
MissMary227 wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
MissMary227 wrote:
The only poll that got the 2016 election right was The University of Southern California, and the leading pollsters there did not want Trump to win. So that is the only poll I follow now. This is the data they have most recently garnered from January 31,2020. Even though it's a bit old now, it follows earlier polls that also show Biden as the Democrat front runner: It is gonna be a blowout come November. :heart:

If you are a Trump fan the actions of the Democrats give you a lot of very legitimate reasons for hope. IMHO the biggest reason for the Democrats to hope is Trump fans overconfidence. I have read so many Trump fans expecting a Trump blowout. This is quite ironic because it was the Democrats absolute belief that no way Trump could win the was very helpful to Trump back in 2016.


Nah, I disagree about the overconfidence part. We are just a force to be reckoned with now, and confident in his re-election. And we will not be complacent, but will turn out en masse. Look at Iowa...

Been there, done that.

In 2016 I did not outright predict a Trump win just said he had a chance. There were two types of reactions mocking/tin foil hat suggestions and total shock noticeable physically followed by silence or mumbling.

Unlike 2016 your opponents are not dealing with something they think won’t happen but the reality that Trump has been president for over 4 years. From what I see except for a few the left has FINALLY gotten over the idea that something magical is going to happen to remove Trump and are in a state of panic. They are not going to be complacent this time around. Your guy is still widely and most importantly intensely unpopular. He has not built upon his intensely loyal base and that base lost the popular vote by a substantial amount last time out. Losing the popular vote despite what happened in 2000 and 2016 still means you are more likely than not to lose the electoral college.

IMHO what is going on is overcorrection for 2016. From Trump supporters it is gleeful anticipation and expectation of the ultimate owning of the libs. Overconfidence and “fighting the last war” leads to not only complacency but other mistakes. Just look at the Democrats for the last 5 years.


I guess we will see in the Fall what happens. I bet Trump will win more electoral votes than he did in 2016, maybe win popular vote as well. No way Trump supporters are going to be complacent and not vote. We are fired up! :mrgreen:


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07 Mar 2020, 9:01 pm

Biden says "we can only re-elect Donald Trump."

This is painful to watch. There needs to be an intervention.

https://twitter.com/thebradfordfile/sta ... 6964163584


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07 Mar 2020, 9:23 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
Tim_Tex wrote:
Warren is out.

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-03-05/elizabeth-warren-to-end-presidential-campaign-report

Unless Tulsi can pull a Homer, it's a win for the patriarchy.

She finished third in her home state. The only other path was denial.

Darmok wrote:
This is very true. Everybody makes "gaffes," especially in a high-pressure media environment. But this is clearly old-age decline, not "gaffes." I can't stand Biden, but this is painful to watch – he really shouldn't have been allowed to get into this position by the people around him.

No matter what I think of these candidates politically and personally I have to admire and respect these peoples ability to spend month after month flying from location to location, sleeping in hotels, eating bad food, engaging in small talk while pretending to be interested, having their every word and move judged guilty until proven innocent, without physically collapsing and going insane. I could not do that now at age 62, I could not do that at age 25. I think it is beyond the ability of most to do what these candidates do. Yet these people are chugging along in their 70s. That said the job of the President of the United States is likely to involve days upon days without normal sleep, interrupted sleep, or any sleep in uber unrelenting high pressure situations. In every debate Biden was fading by the end of the debate and that does not cut it.

There is an legitimate argument that Trump’s apparent cognitive decline plus narcissistic traits that go well beyond that of a normal politician makes Biden the lesser of two nightmares. But that should not result in the my team or the highway denial of what is obvious.


I think we will have a female president at some point, but I wonder how the Dems will react if the first female president is a Republican?


As a rule, I don't think women who ascribe to the Democratic party or its principals would ever vote for a Republican woman. It seems to be that they consider Republican women to be traitors rather than allies.



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08 Mar 2020, 12:27 pm

Kamala Harris, last year and this year:

2019 @KamalaHarris: “It was hurtful to hear (Biden) talk about the reputations of two US senators who built their reputations & career on the segregation of race in this country...”

2020 Kamala: “I am with great enthusiasm going to endorse Joe Biden...”

https://twitter.com/Fiorella_im/status/ ... 6132386817


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09 Mar 2020, 8:03 am

The 'cognitive decline' campaign is interesting.....