DarthMetaKnight wrote:
The Trump dynasty will last for 16 years! Ha! That's a pretty bold assumption.
You are assuming that the left won't alter its rhetoric over the next four years.
...
The left could change its strategy too. We could abandon political correctness in favor of blunt economic leftism.
You are severely underestimating the intelligence of the left.
In 2008 a Republican relative I sometimes sparred with asked me to handicap the overall federal election (POTUS, House, Senate), and I said 'If Democrats
don't win big, we should give up and stop fielding candidates.'
2016 wasn't as extreme in the other direction, but President Obama had run a low-ish approval rating during much of his presidency despite being personally well-liked by Democrats and moderate voters. So that was a bit of a warning sign: If people like your candidate more than your policies, that's a bad time to nominate a successor who's less well-liked and more closely associated with policies that irritate wavering parts of your coalition (interventionism and globalization).
As far as Democrats pivoting, I agree with you. Running to Trump's left on trade is a little tricky, but it's not too hard to poke holes in his credibility on the topic.
If Democrats do shift on trade, it will cost some of the suburban votes that Clinton picked up in 2016, and maybe some left-wing internationalists as well (although Trump is so appalling to them that they'll probably turn out for almost any nominee). It would probably bring back some union Democrats who didn't vote for Clinton. Add in Republican women who can't tolerate Trump, and that might be a winning coalition.
Republicans could counter by hammering the Democratic nominee (and Democrats in general) on gender politics and abortion, since union swing voters are likely to be mostly male, and Republican women are mostly pro-life.
Last edited by NobodyKnows on 20 Jan 2019, 5:19 am, edited 1 time in total.