War in Iran?

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11 Sep 2010, 12:49 pm

Given the heated rhetoric from columnists like Jonathan Goldberg, the Israeli Government, and even the White House, is a war with Iran probable? I know the US isn't in a really good position to launch one - given that it is massively indebted due to bank bailouts and an already obscene level of military spending - but Iraq wasn't exactly a reality-based plan either.

If a war is launched in Iran, after two long, long wars, will the American public be much more sceptical of military adventurism? Will tensions heat up across the Middle East if war is initiated? If war is launched, will it help or hinder Obama's reptuation. On a similar thread what will be the consequences to the approval ratings of the comming Republican Congress if war is launched?

Jono
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11 Sep 2010, 12:52 pm

I doubt there'll be a war.

AnonymousAnonymous
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11 Sep 2010, 12:59 pm

^^
Same here.

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11 Sep 2010, 1:43 pm

Master_Pedant wrote:

Honestly I'm surprised Israel has not bombed Iran already. It's supposedly has been inevitable for years now it seems. I think as more time goes on, the less likely it is. Even if Israel does bomb their nuclear facilities, I don't really know how a war between the two would go, neither would invade the other obviously. They could shoot missiles at each other and Iran has it's proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked but I doubt it since that would all but assure the ultimate destruction of the current Iranian regime. Maybe I underestimate their religious craziness.

I can't see any way the US would attack Iran first.

AnonymousAnonymous
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12 Sep 2010, 4:20 pm

^^
Or Iran bombing Israel first.

Most of us here would somewhat agree with this statement:
We just want the peace talks to go well.

Right?

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Master_Pedant
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03 Oct 2010, 2:22 am

I doubt Iran would bomb Israel first. As much as people like to pretend that Iran's leadership is so fundamentalist that they're uttery disconnected from the fact that an attack on Israel would pretty much end their years of power & privilege, they aren't. The Iranian leadership knowns the Islamic Republic would be obliterated overnight if it launched full on war with Israel, which is why they stick to rhetoric or proxies.

I suspect their is a decent chance of war with Iran within the next decade. Media propagandists have been drumming up fear against Iran, micro-analyzing every detail of Iran's supposed attempt to gain what known arch-enemies Pakistan and India already possess. While Obama's administration may present a temporary ease of relations (although the hawkish Slick Hillie as Secretary of State makes me pretty pessimistic), if the next administration is militaristically Republican there will almost certainly be war with Iran. For the past decades military activity has sustained the US economy, I don't see any dramatic shifts happening soon (especially with Obama unready to make deep cuts to the military budget).

skafather84
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03 Oct 2010, 2:26 am

The last report I saw said that the virus that attacked Iran's nuclear stations was from Israel. It's a new wrinkle in what's quickly becoming a worn rivalry.

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03 Oct 2010, 2:33 am

skafather84 wrote:

The last report I saw said that the virus that attacked Iran's nuclear stations was from Israel. It's a new wrinkle in what's quickly becoming a worn rivalry.

Sounds interesting. Do you have a reference. I think such an attack is very much in the Israeli spirit. Think of how Gideon took down the Midianites. The Israelis will do just about anything to avoid using nukes, short of allowing themselves to be wiped out.

Perhaps yo will recall how Israel convinced the Egyptians that war was not such a good idea: They sent in a flight that put marker dye on the High Aswan Dam. That was a sufficient hint and the Israelis and Egyptians have not had an armed fight since. Sometimes soft war is better than hot war.

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03 Oct 2010, 3:23 am

Jacoby wrote:

Master_Pedant wrote:

Israel has already bombed Iran - they wiped out their first nuclear program.

The US has already waged a war against Iran through it's proxy Iraq, and the US navy shot down a clearly identified civilian Iranian airliner during the same war [while the event was acknowledged, no responsibility was accepted nor apology made].

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03 Oct 2010, 3:27 am

The problem with Iran is not nuclear weapons. That's propagandistic baloney. Now that the Sunnis are not in control in Iraq the Shi'a there are quite friendly with Iran and Iran and Turkey are forming relationships that threaten US control of the area. That's the problem and an attack on Iran, a much bigger country than Iraq, is pure insanity from a military or a general policy viewpoint.

ruveyn
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03 Oct 2010, 7:33 am

RedHanrahan wrote:

Israel has already bombed Iran - they wiped out their first nuclear program.

.

That was Iraq in 1981. An Israeli surgical strike (with conventional weapons) took out Iraq's only working reactor capable of producing bomb grade material. Exactly one fatality, a French technician who was on site. The reactor was a "gift" from France.

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03 Oct 2010, 10:35 am

RedHanrahan wrote:

Jacoby wrote:

Master_Pedant wrote:

As said, it was Iraq's nuclear facility that Israel bombed.

We did a little more than just acknowledged shooting down that plane. The US paid $62 million to the victims of Iran Flight 655.

I don't know if I'd call the Iran-Iraq war a proxy war since we gave both sides weapons. Iran earlier and Iraq later.

Master_Pedant
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03 Oct 2010, 10:41 am

Sand wrote:

Well, the invasion of Iraq was based on rose coloured, Pollyanna style thinking. Particularly the view that bombing the shoot out of a country wouldn't effect oil production that much. I'd like to think the foreign policy ideologues have gotten wiser since the Iraq fiasco, but it's better to be a Cassandra then a Pollyanna.

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04 Oct 2010, 12:31 am

You forget that "WE" are the bad guys.

The "Axis of Evil" consisting of America, England and Israel are the ones stirring up trouble and invading or bombing other people's countries.

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04 Oct 2010, 1:52 am

Jacoby wrote:

RedHanrahan wrote:

Jacoby wrote:

Master_Pedant wrote:

I stand corrected on the first point then, the second I will look into, thankyou.

However the Iraqi attack and subsequent war against Iran was most certainly war by proxy.

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RedHanrahan
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04 Oct 2010, 1:53 am

Wombat wrote:

You forget that "WE" are the bad guys.

The "Axis of Evil" consisting of America, England and Israel are the ones stirring up trouble and invading or bombing other people's countries.

Unless you are being sarcastic, YAY! someone who can see a bigger picture,

peace j

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What vision is left? And is anyone asking?

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