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Master_Pedant
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19 Jun 2009, 9:11 pm

Tehran braces for crackdown as protesters vow to defy Khamenei

World 'watching Iran', Obama says

The Supreme Leader's sharpening his rhetoric, as President Obama is in response. The divide between the Iranian elite is deepening.

My main worries with this situation are as follows...

1. The Revolutionary Guard/millions strong Basij milita will gain de facto control over the state apparatus in Iran once this is done, turning Iran into a military junta.
2. A massive and bloody crackdown on Green protesters will occur in the intermission. Iranian society will become ever more closed and liberties will be rapidly curtailed.
3. Western Hawks will worsen the crisis with saber rattling destined to only harden the conservative elements in Iran.
4. Western Hawks and the radical Right of Israel may use this internal crisis as an oppurtunity for military strikes on Iran, which can only have a disasterous effect.

All in all, my outlook is still quite dire.

However, if you're a naive optimist, this video may ease your mind (I doubt the picture he paints, it is a day dated though).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIpxvFR7vEM&feature=channel_page[/youtube]

Concluding Remark

All I can hope is that nobody (be it the conservative elite in Iran or the Hawks in America and Israel) try anything stupid. This situation could easily escalate into catastrophe.



xenon13
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19 Jun 2009, 11:01 pm

They did not learn their lesson from Uzbekistan... I remember when these Coloured Revolutions began, my thought was that at one point, someone would call their bluff and crack down hard, and perhaps this would dissuade others elsewhere... this happened in Uzbekistan, but I guess that they still think that just having the West's blessing would protect them, or that they appeal more to the mafia (they do!) will achieve this.



Master_Pedant
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19 Jun 2009, 11:17 pm

xenon13 wrote:
They did not learn their lesson from Uzbekistan... I remember when these Coloured Revolutions began, my thought was that at one point, someone would call their bluff and crack down hard, and perhaps this would dissuade others elsewhere... this happened in Uzbekistan, but I guess that they still think that just having the West's blessing would protect them, or that they appeal more to the mafia (they do!) will achieve this.


This is hardly a repeat of the coloured revolutions. Mousavi is a moderate conservative running within the framwork of the Islamist state. He represents about as much of a foundamental, institutional challenge to the Iranian establishment as Obama does to the military-industrial complex: none.



xenon13
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20 Jun 2009, 12:00 am

Vojislav Kostunica, conservative Serbian nationalist holding the standard for the mafia-linked Zoran Djindjic against Socialist Party of Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic... Viktor Goncharik, Communist, the Belarussian who was supposed to unseat Lukashenko. Viktor Yushchenko, a Prime Minister under Leonid Kuchma... and former Central Bank Governor in the Ukraine. This is an old story.

Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia again was Minister Of Justice under Shevardnadze...

It appeals to the "have things both ways" crowd...

The tip-off seems to be when the candidate in question says "If I don't win it's fraud"... it's almost like the code-phrase that says "it's on!".



ruveyn
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20 Jun 2009, 9:24 am

Master_Pedant wrote:
Tehran braces for crackdown as protesters vow to defy Khamenei

All I can hope is that nobody (be it the conservative elite in Iran or the Hawks in America and Israel) try anything stupid. This situation could easily escalate into catastrophe.


Let us apply some logic. Clearly if Iran disappeared tomorrow it would be good for America. Right? So whenever Iranian A kills Iranian B it is a step in the right direction. No matter how this turns out, good will come of it. Dead Iranians are better Iranians than live Iranians.

Rejoice!

ruveyn



Sand
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20 Jun 2009, 10:54 am

ruveyn wrote:
Master_Pedant wrote:
Tehran braces for crackdown as protesters vow to defy Khamenei

All I can hope is that nobody (be it the conservative elite in Iran or the Hawks in America and Israel) try anything stupid. This situation could easily escalate into catastrophe.


Let us apply some logic. Clearly if Iran disappeared tomorrow it would be good for America. Right? So whenever Iranian A kills Iranian B it is a step in the right direction. No matter how this turns out, good will come of it. Dead Iranians are better Iranians than live Iranians.

Rejoice!

ruveyn


Depends upon your point of view. All indications outside of the American and Israeli hawks shrieking over Iran becoming a nuclear aggressor indicate that Iran has no intention nor indication that it is building atomic weaponry and these hysterical fear mongers deeply need Iran as a threat to justify the outrageous expenditures for military equipment and bases and to keep their populations on edge now that Iraq and Russia are no longer viable military threats. Hopefully China may eventually fill that requirement but not yet.



Wombat
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20 Jun 2009, 11:59 am

"Afghanistan was behind 9/11 so lets invade them.

Whoops they weren't.

"Iraq has weapons of mass destruction so let's invade them"

Whoops, they didn't. The weapons inspectors said they didn't but who can trust them?

Iran is making atom bombs.

Well the International Atomic Energy Commission says they aren't but who can trust them?

We gotta invade them!

Bomb them. Now!!



xenon13
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20 Jun 2009, 12:18 pm

What makes it such that Iran's disappearance is "good for America"? What does "good for America" mean here? The issue is that Iran doesn't like Israel and there's been a successful campaign to claim "What's good for Israel is good for America", that the interests of the two are identical and force this vision through at the highest levels of American authority as well as in the media.

Israel, for those who don't know, blew up U.S. targets in Egypt in 1954 in a bid to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Egypt. Israel bombed and strafed the USS Liberty and shot at its life boats in June 1967. Israel has schemed since day one of its existence to get the U.S. and entire Arab world at war with each other - its plans for Iran are a bit different, Israeli policymakers have always wanted Iran as an ally as in the Shah's time and their ultimate goal would seem to bring that back if possible.

The policy to promote perpetual war between U.S. and Arabs is why Benjamin Netanyahu reacted to the Sept 11 attacks with the words "It's very good".



Wombat
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20 Jun 2009, 12:40 pm

Why should we care what happens in Iran or Mongolia or Zimbabwe or Peru?

Is that our business?

Our founding fathers said we should mind our own business.



ruveyn
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20 Jun 2009, 3:01 pm

Wombat wrote:
Why should we care what happens in Iran or Mongolia or Zimbabwe or Peru?

Is that our business?

Our founding fathers said we should mind our own business.


Which is why the U.S. invaded Canada during the War of 1812?

ruveyn



phil777
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21 Jun 2009, 6:38 pm

wasn't that Manifest Destiny? <.<



Wombat
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22 Jun 2009, 4:39 am

ruveyn wrote:

Which is why the U.S. invaded Canada during the War of 1812?


Darned right they did!

Then they picked a fight with Spain ("Remember the Main") and invaded Cuba and the Philippines.

Then settlers moved to Mexico (Texas) and wanted to take slaves but the Mexicans objected.
(Remember the Alamo)

So they invaded Mexico and took Texas, New Mexico, California etc.


Then they invaded the Kingdom of Hawaii etc etc.

In the mean time they made treaties with the Indians but broke every treaty and killed them.

Tell me about "freedom" and "democracy"



codarac
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22 Jun 2009, 5:57 pm

ruveyn wrote:
Master_Pedant wrote:
Tehran braces for crackdown as protesters vow to defy Khamenei

All I can hope is that nobody (be it the conservative elite in Iran or the Hawks in America and Israel) try anything stupid. This situation could easily escalate into catastrophe.


Let us apply some logic. Clearly if Iran disappeared tomorrow it would be good for America. Right? So whenever Iranian A kills Iranian B it is a step in the right direction. No matter how this turns out, good will come of it. Dead Iranians are better Iranians than live Iranians.

Rejoice!

ruveyn


Are you sure you're not getting America's interests confused with Israel's?

Anyway, I've got a good idea for reducing Iran's population still further. Give a million of them American passports. Then you'd have a million fewer Iranians and a million more Americans. Isn't that the way the modern world works?



ruveyn
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22 Jun 2009, 7:38 pm

codarac wrote:

Are you sure you're not getting America's interests confused with Israel's?

Anyway, I've got a good idea for reducing Iran's population still further. Give a million of them American passports. Then you'd have a million fewer Iranians and a million more Americans. Isn't that the way the modern world works?


The last thing we need in the U.S. are hot headed devout Muslims. They are dangerous and anti-social.

These are the kind of people who strip on bombs and become "martyrs".

ruveyn



timeisdead
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22 Jun 2009, 8:11 pm

ruveyn wrote:
codarac wrote:

Are you sure you're not getting America's interests confused with Israel's?

Anyway, I've got a good idea for reducing Iran's population still further. Give a million of them American passports. Then you'd have a million fewer Iranians and a million more Americans. Isn't that the way the modern world works?


The last thing we need in the U.S. are hot headed devout Muslims. They are dangerous and anti-social.

These are the kind of people who strip on bombs and become "martyrs".

ruveyn


Many Iranians immigrated to the United States because they didn't wish to be ruled by Islamic fundamentalists. From Iran, we largely received a significant portion of Iran's wealthy and secular elites. It was a similar phenomenon to Cuban immigration in which we received many elite immigrants seeking to escape the economic policies of Castro, which called for a forced redistribution of wealth.



pakled
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23 Jun 2009, 1:19 am

yup...all those who backed the Shah originally, wound up over here and other places.
Who wants to destroy Iran? Most of us just want them to leave us alone, and we'll leave them alone. Now if we can just get our respective governments to agree...;)