Do you think Islam will outlive Christianity?

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donnie_darko
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01 Aug 2011, 8:39 pm

Islam of course, is 600 years younger, so it has that advantage. Do you think Islam will last longer than Christianity? Christianity is continuing to die in Europe, and there's signs it's starting to die in America and Latin America as well. On the other hand, it's growing in Africa and Asia.

Islam on the other hand, seems to be continuing to grow, though in some countries, like Turkey it is declining, and in some countries like Iran it's losing appeal among the youth.

Do you think Islam will outlast Christianity or will they both die out as religions around the same time? How long do you think it will take for them to no longer be major religions?

Could you see Christianity outliving Islam?



Master_Pedant
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01 Aug 2011, 9:34 pm

I haven't seen the stats on Latin America, but I'd be interested to see if there is a decline. I noticed that a lot of South American countries, even those with socialist governments, have very high rates of religiosity.

As for which religion will die first, it depends on whether the Arab countries begin to develop welfare states in the next 70 or so years. Extensive social welfare systems crowd out religious charities, secularizing the jobless poor, working poor, and broader working class.


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Vigilans
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01 Aug 2011, 9:43 pm

M_P has a good point there. Its also possible there could be a serious backlash against religion in Muslim dominant countries due to the extremism that is very visible for the time being. I do think Islam will outlive Christianity though as the amount of extreme followers in that religion does outnumber Christianity. I also don't expect to see sects like the Sufi disappear overnight. If anything I expect the Sufi will outlive the rest of Islam. I would not be very surprised if Bahá'í outlives both Christianity and Islam as it is (imho) the most 'enlightened' religion out there. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that it is what you could consider a 'post-enlightenment' religion, whereby ideas such as the rights of man and equality that were really pushed and explored in that time influenced Bahá'í heavily



donnie_darko
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01 Aug 2011, 9:48 pm

Vigilans wrote:
If anything I expect the Sufi will outlive the rest of Islam. I would not be very surprised if Bahá'í outlives both Christianity and Islam as it is (imho) the most 'enlightened' religion out there. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that it is what you could consider a 'post-enlightenment' religion, whereby ideas such as the rights of man and equality that were really pushed and explored in that time influenced Bahá'í heavily


I think the most popular religions in the future will be Sufi, Zoroastrianism, Buddhism, Bahai, Hinduism, Taoism, and Gnostic Christianity.



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01 Aug 2011, 9:55 pm

Since the Middle East is such a s**thole, religion fulfills a greater need. Islam will definitely outlive Christianity. Also since Islam is so deeply intrenched into their cultures, this will make it die a lot harder.



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01 Aug 2011, 10:05 pm

Unlikely. For one thing, Christianity is hardly "dying," and I suspect the number of reported Muslims is highly inflated by the fact that religious dissent is legally prohibited in the areas where Islam predominates. The Middle East does not actually consist of 99% Muslims. Those people are told that they are Muslim and counted as Muslim for the census, but as soon as those states adopt a modern permissive government the proportion of reported Muslims will plummet.

Also important to note that Islam's growth comes exclusively from high birth rates in Muslim-dominated regions, not from conversion. That's not a sustainable way for a religion to grow. The Baha'i, in contrast, grow almost exclusively through converts from other faiths and are growing at a higher rate than Islam.


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01 Aug 2011, 10:09 pm

donnie_darko wrote:
I think the most popular religions in the future will be Sufi, Zoroastrianism, Buddhism, Bahai, Hinduism, Taoism, and Gnostic Christianity.

On what do you base these predictions? Has Zoroastrianism been making a comeback that I missed or something?


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01 Aug 2011, 10:13 pm

Orwell wrote:
donnie_darko wrote:
I think the most popular religions in the future will be Sufi, Zoroastrianism, Buddhism, Bahai, Hinduism, Taoism, and Gnostic Christianity.

On what do you base these predictions? Has Zoroastrianism been making a comeback that I missed or something?


I have no idea on the basis of what figures he's assuming this.

Wikipedia wrote:
DemographicsMain article: List of countries by Zoroastrian population
In 2004, the number of Zoroastrians worldwide was estimated at between 145,000 and 210,000.[39] India's 2001 Census found 69,601 Parsi Zoroastrians. In Pakistan, they number 5,000, mostly living in Karachi; they have been reinforced in recent years with a number of Zoroastrian refugees from Iran. Anglo America is thought to be home to 18,000–25,000 Zoroastrians of both South Asian and Iranian background. A further 3,500 live in Australia (mainly in Sydney). Iran's figures of Zoroastrians have ranged widely; the last census (1974) before the revolution of 1979 revealed 21,400 Zoroastrians.

Some 10,000 adherents remain in the Central Asian regions that were once considered the traditional stronghold of Zoroastrianism, i.e., Bactria (see also Balkh), which is in Northern Afghanistan; Sogdiana; Margiana; and other areas close to Zoroaster's homeland.

In the Indian census of 2001, the Parsis numbered 69,601, representing about 0.006% of the total population of India, with a concentration in and around the city of Mumbai. Due to a low birth rate and high rate of emigration, demographic trends project that by 2020 the Parsis will number only about 23,000 or 0.002% of the total population of India. The Parsis would then cease to be called a community and will be labeled a "tribe". By 2008, the birth-to-death ratio was 1:5—200 births per year to 1,000 deaths.[40]

In Iran, emigration, out-marriage and low birth rates are likewise leading to a decline in the Zoroastrian population, which is currently estimated at under 20,000.[41]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoroastria ... mographics


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01 Aug 2011, 10:40 pm

Master_Pedant wrote:
Orwell wrote:
donnie_darko wrote:
I think the most popular religions in the future will be Sufi, Zoroastrianism, Buddhism, Bahai, Hinduism, Taoism, and Gnostic Christianity.

On what do you base these predictions? Has Zoroastrianism been making a comeback that I missed or something?


I have no idea on the basis of what figures he's assuming this.

Wikipedia wrote:
DemographicsMain article: List of countries by Zoroastrian population
In 2004, the number of Zoroastrians worldwide was estimated at between 145,000 and 210,000.[39] India's 2001 Census found 69,601 Parsi Zoroastrians. In Pakistan, they number 5,000, mostly living in Karachi; they have been reinforced in recent years with a number of Zoroastrian refugees from Iran. Anglo America is thought to be home to 18,000–25,000 Zoroastrians of both South Asian and Iranian background. A further 3,500 live in Australia (mainly in Sydney). Iran's figures of Zoroastrians have ranged widely; the last census (1974) before the revolution of 1979 revealed 21,400 Zoroastrians.

Some 10,000 adherents remain in the Central Asian regions that were once considered the traditional stronghold of Zoroastrianism, i.e., Bactria (see also Balkh), which is in Northern Afghanistan; Sogdiana; Margiana; and other areas close to Zoroaster's homeland.

In the Indian census of 2001, the Parsis numbered 69,601, representing about 0.006% of the total population of India, with a concentration in and around the city of Mumbai. Due to a low birth rate and high rate of emigration, demographic trends project that by 2020 the Parsis will number only about 23,000 or 0.002% of the total population of India. The Parsis would then cease to be called a community and will be labeled a "tribe". By 2008, the birth-to-death ratio was 1:5—200 births per year to 1,000 deaths.[40]

In Iran, emigration, out-marriage and low birth rates are likewise leading to a decline in the Zoroastrian population, which is currently estimated at under 20,000.[41]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoroastria ... mographics

Same goes for several of the other groups listed (aside from Buddhism, Hinduism, and possibly Baha'i).


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01 Aug 2011, 10:49 pm

donnie_darko wrote:
Vigilans wrote:
If anything I expect the Sufi will outlive the rest of Islam. I would not be very surprised if Bahá'í outlives both Christianity and Islam as it is (imho) the most 'enlightened' religion out there. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that it is what you could consider a 'post-enlightenment' religion, whereby ideas such as the rights of man and equality that were really pushed and explored in that time influenced Bahá'í heavily


I think the most popular religions in the future will be Sufi, Zoroastrianism, Buddhism, Bahai, Hinduism, Taoism, and Gnostic Christianity.


I have to admit I am a little confused; Zoroastrianism? It has been in decline for so long... the only place I ever see Zoroastrianism resurgent is in Utopian science fiction (likewise with Sufi and other 'ritualistic' sects). Gnostic Christianity as well (not that I see it in sci fi but that it doesn't seem to be on the list of surging religions...)



donnie_darko
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01 Aug 2011, 11:08 pm

Vigilans wrote:

I have to admit I am a little confused; Zoroastrianism? It has been in decline for so long... the only place I ever see Zoroastrianism resurgent is in Utopian science fiction (likewise with Sufi and other 'ritualistic' sects). Gnostic Christianity as well (not that I see it in sci fi but that it doesn't seem to be on the list of surging religions...)


I heard somewhere that in Iran Zoro is making a comeback as there is an increased interest in Persia's past ... of course the govt there would want to make it seem like Islam was the only religion there.



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02 Aug 2011, 12:13 am

donnie_darko wrote:
Vigilans wrote:

I have to admit I am a little confused; Zoroastrianism? It has been in decline for so long... the only place I ever see Zoroastrianism resurgent is in Utopian science fiction (likewise with Sufi and other 'ritualistic' sects). Gnostic Christianity as well (not that I see it in sci fi but that it doesn't seem to be on the list of surging religions...)


I heard somewhere that in Iran Zoro is making a comeback as there is an increased interest in Persia's past ... of course the govt there would want to make it seem like Islam was the only religion there.

There are no gays or Zoroastrians in Iran.


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02 Aug 2011, 12:36 am

They don't have any fundamental differences whereby one would be considered "just too ridiculous" while the other is still believable. As long as there are still people willing to buy the "omnipotent and omniscient being" premise, both will exist in some form.