republicans, iowa, debate/straw poll

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my analysis:

ron paul has certainly grown in support since 2008.
michelle bachmann is doing well in the race so far.
rick perry's shadow loomed over the whole iowa event.
huntsman/santorum have no chance of winning.
herman cain did not get the boost he needed from iowa. he's likely finished.
pawlenty ruined himself in the debate.
romney played it safe, and still remains on top.
he likely saw himself as too proper for populist appeals

but heres the thing.
most voters aren't active citizens. they dont campaign. they just vote on election day. and whether you attended numerous rallies and meetings or not you have the same amount of votes: 1. there may be a lot of noise for the tea party meetings, but come election, the dormant moderates are going to get off their chair and vote for romney or another moderate.

your thoughts?

Perry and Romney at 6th and 7th. Perry was a write-in and beat Romney.

That the top 5 candidates all have zero chance of winning shows how radicalized the far right base has become. They want to run Jesus or Ayn Rand and neither is available.

You seem to be a Paul Ryan fan and he loves Ayn Rand.

If the vote is between a dead person and a mythical one - mythical is more fun.


In all seriousness though I'd probably pull for Perry or Romney.

Paul would destroy Obama in a general election. He has no argument against him and would have to resort to outright lies. The fact that some of you supposed "progressives" would support a borderline fascist like Obama just because he has a D behind his name is laughable. I could respect the Dennis Kucinich or even the Cynthia McKinney supporters but I don't see too many of them anymore. (my apologies to any that might read this) I would say do us a favor and stop pretending to care about ending our insane foreign policy, the erosion of civil liberties, the Drug War, or the Fed but you guys already did after Obama was elected. All these people care about is their government cheese and don't really care how many people are killed or imprisoned.

Bachmann winning isn't very surprising. She's "from" Iowa and basically coerced people to vote for her if they wanted to see Randy Travis of all people in her enclosed tent. She gave away over 6000 tickets but only 4800 voted for her. Paul gave away 4750 and 4680 vote for him. She'll fizzle out now with Slick Rick Perry in the race.

Pawlenty is done. Cain is done. Santorum was never started but should drop out anyways. Huntsman is a nobody. Gingrich... lol.

#2 is a good result for Ron Paul tho. He had more votes than Romney did when he won it in 2007. At least with the Bachmann "win" they won't completely ignore the poll.

Media is pushing Rick Perry really hard now, it's disgusting. He's like George Bush's slimey cousin. Fake accent, fake Christian, and all.

Romney has no chance at the nomination, he has no activist or grassroots support and that's what wins you the nomination. Now he has Huntsman spliting the Mormon vote in Western states so he wouldn't even get the full benefit of that.

As always, on election day it'll just be a matter of voting for the lesser of two evils....

the extremists are getting louder. but arent overpowering the moderates.

jacoby i disagree. romney certainly has a lot more than a chance. noise and numbers are too different things.

Romney's campaign is dead in the water. He would not of won Ames even if he contested it this year. He wanted candidates like Pawlenty, Bachman, Santorum, etc. tearing each other down to win Ames rather than tearing him down. He's desperately trying to preserve his poll numbers he has right now. He has no momentum, his numbers will only go down. Back in 2007, Romneycare and it's mandates were still a "republican" idea and he still lost to that pathetic fossil McCain. He was the establishment candidate last time, the establishment man for 2012 is looking like Rick Perry who can also attract social conservatives.

Ron Paul would beat Obama because he would actually hold Obama accountable for his actions instead of the whole fake left/right dichotomy. Everything Obama runs on is a lie or misrepresentation. Who knows, maybe you're right, we could see the unholy marriage of the Trotskyite neoconservatives and the "new left" of Democratic party. As if they're any different but at least would send the neocons back from whence they came. Maybe I just overestimate people, most are too stupid to pay attention to anything beyond the letter which comes after their name.

If progressives had actually paid attention to Ron Paul's positions on abortion and Church/State seperation he'd have had close to NONE of their support he had in 2008. It's a great shame that so may anti-war leftists were swindled by the false promises of Ron Paul in 2008 (Paul's as good as Obama at being all things to all people).