Poplulation and poverty perception vs reality.

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0_equals_true
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23 Oct 2015, 4:44 pm

For those in the UK if you haven't seen these excellent talks by Professor Hans Rosling:

Don't Panic - The Truth About Population
Don't Panic - How to End Poverty in 15 Years

Sorry if you can view these, I suggest you obtain them somehow.

It just interest me how different peoples perceptions of the world are to the reality. This is not to say that everything perfect, we are just getting the wrong picture.

It so often to hear about decline.

There is also an excellent TED lecture on violence:

The surprising decline in violence

I have a couple of theories as to why these perceptions are pervasive:

1. We have much higher standards than ever before, so are more likely to react an be dissatisfied with the status quo.
2. The politic of fear is effective, and we are suggestible.



LoveNotHate
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23 Oct 2015, 7:50 pm

Your links say "UK Only".

Here are the videos on youtube:

Don't Panic The Truth About Global Population Growth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBYCLzY8IqU

Don't Panic - How to End Poverty in 15 Years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JiYcV_mg6A

I will watch them, and maybe comment.



0_equals_true
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24 Oct 2015, 5:23 am

Definitely worth a watch, it is an eye opener.



0_equals_true
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24 Oct 2015, 5:26 am

LoveNotHate wrote:
Don't Panic - How to End Poverty in 15 Years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JiYcV_mg6A


You second link is wrong try

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2AWVE_ESsY



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24 Oct 2015, 9:14 am

Yeah, I watched the full hour program on poverty and I'm familiar with the study on current levels of violence.

One of the things that's changed me most in my transformation toward social worker/scientist is the emphasis on "evidenced based practice."

So many people shape their world view based on plausible, 'just so' stories rather than actual, objective evidence. This is just something that humans do. It was a huge problem with the ancient Greeks. Just think how much more they could have advanced if they had developed the scientific method!

Anyways, this charactaristic of human psychology is pandered to by news outlets that provide news and affirmation rather than informantion.

I think we could overcome this problem a bit if we would encourage critical thinking in early education. The UK is doing this somewhat by teaching philosophy in grade school. I wish the US would try this, BUT the last thing American parents want is children who think critically.

:?


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0_equals_true
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24 Oct 2015, 1:33 pm

GoonSquad wrote:
I think we could overcome this problem a bit if we would encourage critical thinking in early education. The UK is doing tAhis somewhat by teaching philosophy in grade school. I wish the US would try this, BUT the last thing American parents want is children who think critically. :?


Have you seen this:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/an-unlikely ... 1442616928

Anyone do formal debating in school? I did.

It is one way to develop critical thinking. Especially if you have to defend positions you don't normally hold.

There is more to critical thinking and deductive reasoning than that, but would certainly help alot with the youth.

In the poverty video it points out that educated people if anything are slightly more prone tot hos common misconceptions (as mentioned). So it is question of approach.

Education has been a massive political football and it has become harder for teacher to actually use their initiative. So those types are no longer interested in becoming teachers. There is an obsession with some "Atlantis" of national curriculum, which basically means teacher are just concerned with getting their student through the examinations.



Last edited by 0_equals_true on 24 Oct 2015, 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

0_equals_true
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24 Oct 2015, 1:50 pm

One the issues I've found is some people don't understand the differnce between morality (personal and societal) and the study of ethics.

So if you have a discussion about ethics in a subject that is taboo, steam comes out their ears, becuase they know it is a proscribed subject. You are supposed to give definitive answers and not well qualified ones to satisfy their moral compass. This is hard for analytical types myself.

It is like the thunderf00t debarckle on Youtube right now. He was libeled by opponents and they tried to get him fired, called the police on him, generally harassed him, etc. Not simply becuase they disagreed with him, but becuase they couldn't understand what he was saying, and took the subject and assumed the worst (as they already though the worst of him).

It has totally blown up in their faces. The only sympathy they get from me, is my theory that their lack of reasoning skills has got the better of them.



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24 Oct 2015, 2:11 pm

^^^ Yeah, that was posted on a sociology blog I read.

Philosophy and debate are great tools to promote non-black/white thinking and a respect for objective facts.

But, like you say, there's too much politics in education and as a result, we cannot agree on what to teach beyond the bare basics.


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0_equals_true
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24 Oct 2015, 2:28 pm

It is funny that autistics are often thought of as exhibiting black an white thinking. I have never really bought into this idea.

Perhaps it is more a case that people are less aware of the area that they are black and white, but at the same time they see it in others in areas they are not.



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25 Oct 2015, 12:59 am

I think humans will keep populating until the resources are spread so thin, that the majority are in poverty. We see this in third world countries where people endure while eeking out a minimal existence.

Hans Rosling does not mention that we are near a growth explosion point in the below chart if we follow the red line. The UN predicts the world population to add 1.2 billion people in the next fifteen years. 1.2 billion more living people in just fifteen years.

UN projects world population to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, driven by growth in developing countries
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?N ... ixt5fmrSCg

Here is the UN world population projections (red=high estimate, yellow=medium estimate, green=low estimate)
Image
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projectio ... ion_growth



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25 Oct 2015, 9:36 am

^^^ Just another reason to eliminate poverty.

High birth rates in the 3rd world are a reaction to high infant mortality and lack of access to contraceptives.

Reducing poverty will help reduce population as well.


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29 Oct 2015, 5:01 pm

0_equals_true wrote:
For those in the UK if you haven't seen these excellent talks by Professor Hans Rosling:

Don't Panic - The Truth About Population
Don't Panic - How to End Poverty in 15 Years

Sorry if you can view these, I suggest you obtain them somehow.

It just interest me how different peoples perceptions of the world are to the reality. This is not to say that everything perfect, we are just getting the wrong picture.

It so often to hear about decline.

There is also an excellent TED lecture on violence:

The surprising decline in violence


The message of most TED lectures I've seen or heard about seems to be "the future's going to be just swell, and it's mainly because of the wisdom and generosity of fine people like you who watch TED lectures!"

I'm guessing these are similar.

0_equals_true wrote:
I have a couple of theories as to why these perceptions are pervasive:

1. We have much higher standards than ever before, so are more likely to react an be dissatisfied with the status quo.
2. The politic of fear is effective, and we are suggestible.


Possibly, but I don't find that overwhelmingly convincing. Surely it's just as logical to suggest that material prosperity creates unfounded optimism by blinding people to how cruel the world can be and how easily things can turn, and by allowing people to confuse technological progress with social and moral progress.



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29 Oct 2015, 5:17 pm

Rollo wrote:
Possibly, but I don't find that overwhelmingly convincing. Surely it's just as logical to suggest that material prosperity creates unfounded optimism by blinding people to how cruel the world can be and how easily things can turn, and by allowing people to confuse technological progress with social and moral progress.


The talks don't cover morality.

It also doesn't give credit merely mapping what the situation is, in terms of technology it talks mostly of basics things like electricity, medicine, housing materials, transport, etc. However it more in the perspective of acquiring them rather then attributing them. It doesn't often say this happened becuase of x.

I suggest you watch them.

It is not that the world isn't cruel to today it is, simply that it is indisputable that infant mortality, life expectancy, life prospects have improved over the centuries, even since ww2

People have very short memories, but is a matter of historic record.



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29 Oct 2015, 8:35 pm

Thanks for these!

My first comment is now I feel like seeing if there's a 'bikes for Africa' charity and donating when I get a job again.

The other thing about education in the West, I think it's getting really hazardous. One one level yes, it seems like it's more dogmatized and less for critical thinking (a bit like it's an assembly line) but I also have to say there's another issue right along side that; particularly in the urban and suburban areas its a kind of divorce from the land, divorce from food source, and in a way it divorces people from the fundamental realities.

In some ways it's almost inspiring to look back at the seven liberal arts as they were once taught or the collections of eclectic philosophy, rhetoric, logic, leadership, farming, etc. info that kings and leaders were supposed to study. If things get too much more mechanical and stripped-down in mainstream education I think what we'll see in the west are more specialty and online schools to pick up the difference. Something will have to happen because we'll be drifting off course and not giving enough mental nutrition to bring about balanced and circumspect adults.


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29 Oct 2015, 10:34 pm

The whole reality, we will retire from our progress. We have done many good things at the cost of burning coal, clear cutting, strip mining, and exploiting soil fertility. Life in the ocean is not 10% of what it was a hundred years ago, and birds, butterflies are in decline.

It was worth it to raise the Earth out of poverty. 10% poverty may be like unemployment, some will always exist because humans.

We are at a point where protecting nature pays better than looting it.

In everyone's favorite State of Insanity, Florida, fishing with nets was abolished. The result was rapid increase in fish, and in Sport Fishing, hook and line, with boat rentals, hotels, meals, bringing in ten times as much money. Non fishing, reef diving, snorkeling, increased, and supported related business.

Humans do drive climate change, cutting old growth forests, plowing up sod, paving everything. Cow farts are minor.
Humans can drive climate change in the other direction, like the CCC and WPA that did soil reclamation, planted trees, built water control structures, irrigation works, that increased life.

Clean water and air, eating all the time, education and health clinics, a bicycle and a comfortable hut, life is good. It is even better with a washing machine, an electric grain grinder, and a big flat screen with WiFi.

This level of living is available for all without destroying the planet of the future.

Back to tradition, after serving twenty years in the Roman Army, men were given two acres. It was enough to raise a family. From the video about Africa, the man's maize patch, and the yield shown, was less than half an acre. Maybe less than a quarter. He was making it work, and with an irrigated acre he would be rich.

There is enough land and water, population will top out, one way or another, so our issue is the quality of water, air, earth. Bicycles, washing machines, grain mills, water supplies, are low tech industry. Education and health care are mostly knowledge based. The world does need WiFi, flat screens, power generation, medical supplies, satellite's, but that is a small demand per person.

There is enough for everyone, and the faster we spread it the quicker population declines. Also, I noticed how healthy the African people were. We do not look so good, we would do better with their diet and exercise.

The ideal life is somewhere between our over consuming ways, and Africa struggling to survive.

The main factors of increased population are people live longer, lower childhood mortality, and those are good things. At 2.5 children per couple population will decline, because not everyone has children, or has less than 2.5.

We are there, we can start on building Earth 2.0. Everyone eats all the time, has access to education, and health care. This will prevent as many as a billion people a decade from being born, so population decline starts from our current seven billion.

The second part is to plant forests, develop water supplies, and increase soil fertility.

I also think something can be done to locate bicycle production in Africa. Worldwide, three wheelers, two in back, or in front, or as a side car, or the same tech making the same for a small motorbike. Very light cargo vehicles get a lot of use.

Bike parts get cheap in India and China, hubs, wheels, tires, seats, and the rest is bending tubing and welding. It is all standard parts and low industry with a direct application.

Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, the Wright Brothers, all started in a bicycle shop.



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30 Oct 2015, 3:31 pm

Interesting. I think anytime someone trys to figure it all out so many things can skew the perception, with all this worry it makes it hard for a person to even cope, yet live.

I have adopted the motto of just live. If I starve, I do so. If the planet get ruined so be it, if I never complete the things I had set out for myself as goals then ok. If politicians run amuck who cares, For me anyways I'm done trying to figure it all out, I'm living with no regrets.

Because, it just doesn't matter.

*kicks feet back & enjoys the view* 8)


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