Gaffes notwithstanding, the momentum appears clearly to be with Trudeau.
Mulcair's challenge is that he has three completely different caucuses: Organized labour, western farmers and Quebec nationalists. In the third of these, he is woefully vulnerable. Quebec dumped the Bloc and went for Jack--but the <<NPD>> has failed to deliver the goods. Given the likelihood of a Provincial election, Marois' strategy on the Secular Charter and Mulcair's failure to engage with nationalists in a meaningful way, I suspect his seat count in Quebec will evaporate. But if he works hard to court the nationalists, then he will lose the West and Ontario. He's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. He will keep his own seat, of course, perhaps one or two more in the East End of Montreal, and possibly one or two in the townships, but the rest will go.
The $64,000 question is where they will go. My current prediction is that a lot of nationalists will sit on their hands this time. Given that the Prime Minister is persona non grata in Quebec, I see the Liberals climbing to between 40 and 50 seats in Quebec: Fortress Montreal should be good for about 20, Gatineau, the Monteregie and the Townships for another 15, and five scattered in unexpected places. The Bloc will recapture a few, but not many--their time is passed, so they will have a bulwark in Quebec City and the lower north shore. The NDP and the Conservatives will split what's left.
Ontario is trending strongly to the Liberals. The 416 area code looks like a lock on just about everything. The 905 belt will be a bloodbath, and the Conservatives will hold a lot there. But farther out, there is a growing sentiment that 9 years and three elections is long enough for this government, and Mulcair simply doesn't have the draw that Jack did. Even traditionally Orange seats around Oshawa and Windsor could become vulnerable. Kathleen Wynne isn't helping matters, to be sure, but that's never stopped Ontario voters before.
The byelections in Manitoba suggested that even in the heartland, the NDP is challenged to get the vote out. The disappointing NDP finishes there suggest to me that the Liberals have a half a dozen or so pickups in the West, and the Lower Mainland in BC should be good for as many as half a dozen more.
Meanwhile, Atlantic Canada looks poised to swing. The NDP loss in Nova Scotia, and the Liberal resurgency in New Brunswick both suggest that of the 25 seats for grab in the Maritimes, the NDP will likely only find joy in two or three (two in Halifax, plus the Mirimachi). The Conservatives likely have only half a dozen holds. Throw in a solid red vote in Newfoundland, and the Atlantic is starting to look like it did in the 90's.
None of this adds up to a majority, of course. I suspect when the seat counting is done, the Liberals will have a small plurality and will have to depend on Conservative implosion to keep themselves alive for a couple of budget cycles. At that point Justin will have to sink or swim. And either is a distinct possibility.
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--James
14 Feb 2014, 12:58 am
