Always bet on the Brits -BREXIT is happening

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No, it won't, but neither would staying in. Inside, our borders were effectively the EU's borders, if Germany decides to commit demographic suicide, they are making that choice for the whole union, those migrants will get EU citizenship one day. There is some advantage in being a first mover though, if we tank our economy first it might scare off some of the migrants back into continental Europe, especially those who came here for economic advantage, not to be British (which is unfortunately most of them). That and we can expect the country to become much less welcoming to "non-natives", a nasty thing, but it may serve a purpose in the end. If the union doesn't break up and the rest of the West continues on its current path, Britain may well end up the last "Western" nation standing albeit after a premature and bloody economic catastrophe.

I agree that it is a natural impulse for people to move to where the wealth is, but natural doesn't necessarily mean good, or that we should let it happen. Immigration could have been handled so much better that it was and as a man of history you will know there is a price to be paid when disparate cultures and tribes both feel like they own the same territory.



We can already control non-EU immigration, once we leave EU we will have legal control of all immigration, the problem is the utopians and the cynics in power do not want to control it, it suits their short term purposes, damn the consequences.The Left want it because they see it as a way to destroy any vestiges of the old culture, the so-called "Right" (economic liberals) want it because it makes them slightly richer. If the desire was there, immigration could be reduced to a trickle, which it has been for most of our history.



You can do anything you like with law, if you are serious about punishing those who break it. Mass deportation is technically genocide according to international law, so I think that's off the table.



There is a much darker side to human nature than flocking to centres of wealth. How do you think our countries became predominantly Christian and White in the first place?
Unless a visionary comes along, who wants a multiracial society and is willing to impose a stringent monoculture to make that happen, then this mess will turn racial. If no miracles occur, Britain and the rest of the West will monoracial again, only after what will be the worst wars humanity has ever participated in.

Well yes, that's kind of the point of the E.U. that I think you're missing: you can have local trade partners (this century) or you can have neighbors at war (last century). Those are the only two ways to divide goods: negotiate for them (economy) or fight for them (war). It's good to see the lesson of last century (two world wars, a depression sandwiched between, and a cold war following) lasted a healthy 25 years.

Edit: I'd also point out that the growth of the U.S. and Soviet Union, both economically and politically, in the last half of the last century was not due to either nation's virtues, merely that Europe decided to carve itself up instead, leaving a void to be filled by the US and the Soviets. The entire premise of the E.U. is to make a power block large enough to compete with the other large power blocks. Britain doesn't have the military, international political weight, nor economy to push it's way around unilaterally anymore, nor does France, nor does Germany for that matter-- not if pushing against China, the U.S. or even Russia due to the sheer size of those power blocks. The E.U., however, does have comparable power. The larger the group is the more powerful it is, that's just been a fact of life since single celled organisms.

That might have been how it started, but it's just about naked power now, you do not need political union and free movement of people to trade with one another.



It's true that France and Germany haven't been kicking each other in the balls recently, but the real conflict in both of those world wars was Germany's desire to expand eastwards, the rest of Europe took sides to either stop, or survive the expansion and inevitable German domination of Europe. What do we have now? A German dominated EU that has expanded into many former Russian(Soviet) controlled territories and destroyed Ukraine by trying to move it from neutrality to a European aligned position. Basically an EU, with US backing, on the brink of starting another World War by provoking Russia into open conflict. What lesson have they learned?



We still have NATO for military matters, I don't see how all the other fluff of the EU helps make it a power block, compared to the rest of the world it is economically stagnating. By flooding the place with migrants, you make the whole EU culturally weaker, foment internal divisions. The social policies I mentioned earlier are all backed up and codified by the Union, they all help the native birth rate plummet. If a power block is the goal, we don't see to be ruled by very intelligent people.

How big is Britain's economy? Not near what the E.U. is as a whole (hell not even close to Germany itself). By bundling it all up as one unit and operating as such, it allows all member nations to benefit in the form of negotiation: the key to trade. Let's put it this way, when you come to negotiate a free trade deal with my country you're going to offer all Britain's economy, which is a substantial pie. Then the E.U. is going to make a counter deal with a much larger pie that Britain cannot match. History is history, human instinct will win out and we'll side with the E.U. because more pie is just plain more pie and we don't really give a s**t about what our ancestors did with yours because they're not here and all you guys are offering us is a small ass pie compared to our other suitor.

Ever seen a movie where a guy's in a relationship, loses his job, and then his girlfriend dumps him for a better looking, richer dude? Yeah, it's not just a 2nd rate rom-com, it's also going to be the long term result of Brexit-- you quit your job (wreck your economy) don't expect your girlfriend clean up the mess.

edit-- for the TL:DR version: the E.U. power block is important because of the only thing that matters, leverage.

^ The EU's price for that is nationhood itself and everything that goes with it. If the EU were an economic entity only, as it was originally sold to us, I'd have no problem with it.



What if the price of free trade with us was freedom of movement with some very poor former Soviet countries and Turkey and another entity's Law and Courts become supreme to your own. You'd rightly tell us to get bent.



...If it survives it's mismanagement and idealogical doggedness. Besides you don't really need to take sides in this one, you can trade with both of us, I heard today a bilateral trade deal with the UK is already being drafted and fast tracked, contrary to Obama's back of the queue threat.

I would say you're being exceptionally naive on this one. The E.U. will make a trade retaliation, they HAVE to punish to maintain control, it's a function of power. We have much more to lose by the E.U. leaving our trade bloc than Britain leaving our trade bloc-- again, it's wealthier and has more to offer.

You will get a deal with the U.S., but it won't be a great one, it will be one you'll have to live with. Our historic ties and military alliance aren't for nothing, but they won't be a big point when our diplomats sit down and talk brass tacks-- economy. Remember, you're going to be coming to us, we're not going to you-- we have leverage, you do not. The same way the E.U. has leverage with us that you do not-- they're another shark like us, why risk it all to fight another shark when we could both split an easy grouper instead? Furthermore, take the credit down ratings, economic uncertainty, and the destabilization of the markets-- these are all indicators of how foreigners "feel" about the direction of your country. It's going to be very hard to convince those people to jump on board with what they're signalling to you is a sinking ship.

As for the E.U. collapsing, very doubtful, the other nations understand the economic stake at hand, hence the reason none of them have made moves. True the E.U. is unpopular in France, and the Netherlands at the moment, but there are also no major elections for over a year in either country to make leaving the E.U. a platform. A year of Britain swirling in economic misery is probably more than enough to give voters in those countries second thoughts.

Immigration is a legitimate issue I get it, we deal with it in this country, but the response isn't to act like a toddler and start breaking your toys.

I think you are being a bit naive when it comes to the state of the EU right now. While the UK may be a joke internationally, inside the EU it's a very important export market, punishing the UK excessively also punishes the rest of EU, whose economies remember are in a fairly precarious situation. There's a reason the European markets have been hit worse than the UK's. If they give us a relatively good deal, other countries will want out too because why should they put up with all this crap when they can still trade with a "UK deal". If they try to bone us with a punishment deal, it puts the entire eurozone into recession at the worst possible time, while the UK can try to make up the difference by trading globally, this state of affairs will only increase the power of populist independence movements.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/br ... s-economy/

I think you underestimate how much panic there is in the corridors of the EU, the UK may be a relatively small player on the larger map, but we have put the entire project between a rock and a hard place. The longer we wait to make a move, the worse it gets for Europe. Rumours are that they are going to double down on their project, bringing forward plans, going full federalist, washing away the last vestiges of nation states, making huge power grabs as soon as they can. Steaming ahead like this with a pissed off European population may not end well.



Like I said, they are swirling with us. Italian banks are screwed, George Soros, the man who bet against the pound in the 90s is betting against the Deutsch bank.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/6 ... zone-storm

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/684 ... dum-Brexit

Now maybe, they'll pull it off, and Britain will be exiled to mid level nation state of medium wealth, on the outskirts of the world. I'd happily pay that price, it will be worth the economic hit, if we can survive as a culture and a nation.


It could be that, or maybe it's the toddler pointing out the Emperor has no clothes.

I do not know and hope history does not repeat itself but after. WWII America made the UK pay back war debts leading to peroid of Austerity where shortages and rationing were more severe then during the war itself

With all due respect to autonomy and sovereignty, didn't it bother anyone else, that BRICS is not de-industrializing.

I'm not calling NATO, infallible. I don't want to be answerable to the UK (on Independence Day). It just seems like we're losing social support.

I have been following the Brit newspapers in the wake of Brexit, and whole dialogue from the vote leave camp about "it's not racist, we are just wanting our country back". Members of the Polish community and others have been singled out for abuse, according to reports, presumably because they were not born in the UK.

A lot of New Zealanders and Australians work and live in the UK, and possibly Canadians too (I speculate). So far there have been no reports here or in the Brit papers of the same "get out" hostility being aimed at these groups.

I suppose you could try to explain this on the basis that a lot of people from those Commonwealth countries have British ancestry - certainly not all though - and other historical ties like fighting Hitler (but so did the Poles).

What is driving the hate speech that's being reported? It's hard to see it as "just wanting our country back" when this seems to be so differentially targeted.

The second issue I've noticed is that countries including New Zealand and Australia are being cited by some media as possible "new trading links" to make up for those lost to Brexit. This is very misleading, as Australia and Britain have always traded with the UK and still do - this didn't stop when Britain entered the EEC, though the volumes changed.
What could be re-negotiated is the terms and volumes of trade, though New Zealand's main offshore markets are in Asia
now - China, Japan - and because of the huge volumes and export income, New Zealand won't agree to anything that would jeopardise those markets first and foremost, which it developed as a response to the UK opting out of many of the agreements with New Zealand (and suddenly) in the 1970s. These memories have not receded over time (at least not here) and the new terms of trade would have to be very favourable for New Zealand to return to exporting pre-EU levels to the UK.

The overall situation seems to be far more complex than many of the once-over-lightly versions in the UK press at the moment.

I work in the shipping business and I don't understand the Leave supporters claims that we can trade more with the
Commonwealth instead of the EU.Most of the Commonwealth countries are at least 30 days transit by sea apart from
Canada (and they've just completed a preferential trade deal with the EU which they won't want to jeopardise) whereas the EU is on our doorstep and has a much larger population.We are already trading as much as we can with non-EU countries and don't have the manufacturing industries to support a great increase.
As far as the immigration issue goes,part of the problem is that England is very densely populated and the infrastructure
is under pressure.People have legitimate concerns of overcrowding.On the other hand Scotland is underpopulated and thus more inclined to welcome incomers.Unfortunately a small minority,even in Scotland,have used the Brexit vote as an excuse to exhibit racism or target immigrants as being the problem.

the EU is bluffing about locking the UK out of Europe or any type of threat like that

the UK is also probably a lot more likely to work out it's own trade deal with the US rather than the whole of the EU, how good or bad that is for our countries I don't know. Trump values 'the special relationship' far more than Obama who is more committed to his globalist ideas and has a specific distaste for the British Empire.

All this soiree political bile, has left a deep foreign mistrust and distaste in my mouth.
I didn't know that Scottish nationals and expats were now cross channel swimmers.
I say burn Scottish independence now, for our island futures sake.

On a lighter footing.. we should keep Larry sweet, for 'Auld Lang's Syne.

To give you an idea of the power dynamic (and to highlight my newfound BBcode mastery):

(font size 50%, 1/6th the size of the current E.U.) U.K.: I hate these bloody immigrants, they'e constantly ruining my tea hour! It's the fault of those meddling krauts in the E.U., supported by their frog relatives. The gall, to think they can do that to the Great British Empire. By God's grace and blessing of the Queen, I shall show them all. I will take my ball, go home, and smite them into oblivion. Them and their bloody immigrants.

(font size 250%, 5/6th the size of the current E.U.) E.U.: Yeah, whatever dude. Have fun with that..