Trump Gets Convention Bounce, Drawing Polls To Dead Heat

Post Reply New Topic

Clinton's wicked past is catching up with her.

Here is how Nate Silver's "now cast" system predicts the election outcome, if voting happened today ...



http://www.salon.com/2016/07/25/shock_p ... p_winning/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... dead-heat/

Let's see what happens come November.

Frankly, anything can happen.

Even if he is elected (and fascists have been already been through the world at present and historically)... I really hope the International Criminal Court keeps an eye on him and prosecutes him like any African dictator if he commits similar acts of carnage... and if ex postfacto the worst (in neo-Nazi ideals) is realized then an equivalent of the Nuremberg trials should be set up once again and I hope any of his cronies who indulge in their sadism are hunted down like Nazis were in Argentina...

Jeez, the Democratic Convention isn't even over. T-man got a bounce from Putin and his convention. Hilldog will come back, the Bernie supporters will see reason.

I have amended the title, which was incorrect, and replaced it with the title of the article.

As the article makes clear, the "now cast" is essentially useless, because the election isn't held immediately after the Republican convention. Silver's best guess - the "polls plus" forecast - still gives Clinton a 59.2% chance of winning the election despite poor polling in the last week. Even the "now cast" has shrunk Trump's advantage in the past few hours.

Come back if Clinton isn't leading after the Democratic convention.

The convention has been a unmitigated disaster for the Democrats, there isn't going to be a bump!

More than just these conventions are happening, trying to forecast around their historical trends really is pointless. You have the events in France, in Turkey, in Germany, in Dallas, in Baton Rogue, very turbulent times. These leaks are entirely separate from the convention where Hillary/Kaine are getting boo'd by the Bernie bros. Hillary is gonna go down down down!

How is the Democratic convention a "unmitigated disaster?"

Sounds like you're being a bit partisan.

Your nominee for president and vice president being boo'd on the convention floor is disaster, the whole deal with the leaks and DWS has been just terrible! You have to be a real partisan to spin this convention into a positive, I don't think having the mothers of Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown wail about gun control is going to win any votes. The DNC does not have a clue!

Whaddaya expect? LOL

Let the games begin!

Every candidate has gotten a bump following either convention. Clinton will get hers, too.

Six of one; half-dozen of the other.

I'm not a Democrat, but the 2nd night caught my attention.

Then I caught up with the Flash/Savage thing.