Is 51.9% larger than 67.2%? Why one referendum, not another?

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Mootoo
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17 Aug 2016, 7:23 pm

51.9% is the amount of people who voted to leave the EU in the last referendum, with 67.2% voting to remain in the previous one... 8,908,508 was the difference in the first one, 1,269,501 in the second... that is nearly eight million voting in favour in the first one, though that was when it was simply the EEC. Still, what about the numbers? Are we supposed to assume 51.9% is somehow a majority when it was nearly 70% in the past? And, why would we automatically apply the most recent result when, at the very least, it's a tie if anyone even remembers the other vote? (And despite the Brexit camp having all sorts of mathematical incorrectness and not even preparing an iota for their own desired outcome, the figures above haven't been plucked out of thin air...)



Last edited by Mootoo on 17 Aug 2016, 7:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.

naturalplastic
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17 Aug 2016, 7:31 pm

Am an American who is not up on Brit politics. So you will have to walk me through this.

The term "EEC" was used back in the Seventies. So are you saying that they had a referendum back in the 70's before they had this one that was in the news recently?



Mootoo
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17 Aug 2016, 7:33 pm

Sure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki ... ndum,_1975
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki ... ndum,_2016

...I don't think the fact there was so much time between them matters either, as people are fickle day-to-day, nor is the gap between both similar...



QuillAlba
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17 Aug 2016, 7:34 pm

People who want out of Europe are [redacted]
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Last edited by Adamantium on 18 Aug 2016, 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.: PPR guideline violation removed

kraftiekortie
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17 Aug 2016, 7:38 pm

The EEC was, in the vernacular, known as the "Common Market" in the 1970s.

I forget what year....but sometime in the 1970s, there was a referendum where the 67% voted to stay in the "Common Market."

I also remember, in about 1971, when the US got off the "gold standard," and the UK adopted their present currency system--100 pence to the Pound, based on the decimal system. Before then, it was Pence, Shillings, and Pounds. 12 Pence to the Shilling, 20 Shillings to the Pound. 240 Pence to the Pound.



naturalplastic
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17 Aug 2016, 7:57 pm

Now that you have explained it...I don't see your logic.

It doesn't matter how folks voted in 1975 (almost two generations ago). It matters what the voters want now.

Am not taking sides. Just don't see your logic. Its like you're saying "Americans should bring back burning witches at the stake because our colonial ancestors voted to uphold the practice of witch burning in the Salem Massachusettes colonial referendum of 1648".



Mootoo
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17 Aug 2016, 8:53 pm

That is hundreds of years ago... this is not even half a century, not comparable... ultimately, it's still only two referenda people ever participated in, so that is like a 1:1 ratio.



naturalplastic
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17 Aug 2016, 9:10 pm

Mootoo wrote:
That is hundreds of years ago... this is not even half a century, not comparable... ultimately, it's still only two referenda people ever participated in, so that is like a 1:1 ratio.


No. Your logic is exactly the same as my example. you're saying a forty year old election should be taken as representing voter sentiment for all eternity.

The earlier referendum was 40 years ago so it doesn't have anything to do with the current voter sentiment. End of story.

Not saying you have to support Brexit, but you cant use the results of the 40 year old referendum as an argument against it. Maybe voter sentiment has changed since then.



Mootoo
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17 Aug 2016, 9:32 pm

It would change even if one was conducted today and one tomorrow... point is, what is a majority? 8 million vs. 1 million?



adifferentname
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17 Aug 2016, 9:40 pm

QuillAlba wrote:
People who want out of Europe are short-sighted narrow-minded feckwits.


The sky is falling!

Mootoo wrote:
That is hundreds of years ago... this is not even half a century, not comparable... ultimately, it's still only two referenda people ever participated in, so that is like a 1:1 ratio.


They all go in, but they never, never come out again.

Mootoo wrote:
what is a majority?


http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/majority



UnturnedStone
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17 Aug 2016, 11:37 pm

Mootoo wrote:
It would change even if one was conducted today and one tomorrow... point is, what is a majority? 8 million vs. 1 million?


Even with an example of 4,499,999 vs 450,00,01. 450,00,01 is still the majority and 4,499,999 is still the minority.



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18 Aug 2016, 3:04 am

Somewhere in the world, Twitter's Godfrey_Elfwick is thanking WrongPlanet for writing him new material.


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18 Aug 2016, 3:13 am

TheSpectrum wrote:
Somewhere in the world, Twitter's Godfrey_Elfwick is thanking WrongPlanet for writing him new material.


:mrgreen:


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naturalplastic
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18 Aug 2016, 3:37 am

Interesting how the geographic distribution of the same two opposing opinions differed in the two elections.

In 1975 the farther from Europe the more voters wanted to leave Europe, and the closer to Europe the more they wanted to stay: south east England, and the London area wanted to stay. Northern Ireland, and Scotland, and to some degree Wales were lukewarm. And the islands of northern Scotland were hotbeds of leave sentiment.

In the recent election it was almost the opposite. Scotland wants to stay so much its threatening to leave England to rejoin Europe (kinda like West Virginia left the Southern Confederacy to rejoin the Northern Union during our civil war). The islands of the north are with the rest of Scotland in that. Leave sentiment centers in various areas of England (the extreme south, and northern England. Though the London area voted to stay).



Mootoo
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18 Aug 2016, 9:18 am

Yeah, Scotland and Gibraltar in particular have the worst deal, not only because of that but the fact they didn't vote for the party currently in government by a huge majority (just have one token MP up there), with 36.1% of the rest of the country only voting for them, with this referendum a result specifically of their election... so, one can see the democratic deficit (and pure insanity when it comes to Gib considering it's part of Spain which is still in the EU... same situation with Ireland but at least that is nearby, though it voted to remain too). In a few years it will be the disunited kingdom in all probability, with Scotland likely to vote again to leave just so it could stay in the EU and possibly northern Ireland too.



BaalChatzaf
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18 Aug 2016, 10:13 am

QuillAlba wrote:
People who want out of Europe are short-sighted narrow-minded feckwits.


Really? My ancestors wanted out of Europe back at the end of the 19 th century. They got tired of being ridden down and raped by the Cossacks.


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