I predict Trump will be re-elected in 2020 !

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LoveNotHate
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20 Dec 2017, 2:36 am

Kraichgauer wrote:

LoveNotHate wrote:

Shahunshah wrote:

Trump's disapproval rating is hovering around 60%. Around 40% of the American public is strongly opposed to him.

Half the people don't vote; so it's not as meaningful as it seems.

Young people and minorities are the least likely to vote.

They certainly did in Alabama this last time.

Only like 1.4 Million people voted out of population of 4.8 million adults.

Looks like 30% voted.

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Shahunshah
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20 Dec 2017, 4:41 am

LoveNotHate wrote:

Kraichgauer wrote:

LoveNotHate wrote:

Shahunshah wrote:

Trump's disapproval rating is hovering around 60%. Around 40% of the American public is strongly opposed to him.

Half the people don't vote; so it's not as meaningful as it seems.

Young people and minorities are the least likely to vote.

They certainly did in Alabama this last time.

Only like 1.4 Million people voted out of population of 4.8 million adults.

Looks like 30% voted.

They did in Alabama most certainly. 93% who voted for Clinton showed up for Jones compared to less than half who supported Trump voting for Moore. There is no other way to put it. There was a big surge. African Americans voted beyond their dempgraphic number, look at the results yourself.

EzraS
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20 Dec 2017, 8:43 am

A thing with polls and approval ratings is Trump was shown as way below Hillary. Most everyone expected a Clinton victory to be absolutely certain. With Trump, Stephen Colbert was actually begging him to run because there was no way he was going to win. Obama predicted his loss on national TV. And so on. So really what's needed is for Mueller's highly biased team to cook up some changes and make them stick to teflon man.

ASPartOfMe
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20 Dec 2017, 11:36 am

EzraS wrote:

That is because the data was misread not so much the data itself. The meta pools right before the election had her winning by 3 or 4 percentage point she won the popular voter by around 2 percent well within the margin of error.

It Wasn't the Polls That Missed, It Was the Pundits

Quote:

There is a fast-building meme that Donald Trump’s surprising win on Tuesday reflected a failure of the polls. This is wrong. The story of 2016 is not one of poll failure. It is a story of interpretive failure and a media environment that made it almost taboo to even suggest that Donald Trump had a real chance to win the election.

In fact, despite the hue and cry, the national polls were actually a touch better in 2016 than in 2012. Four years ago, the final RCP National Average gave President Obama a 0.7-point lead; he won by 3.9 points, for an error of 3.2 points. The final RCP Four-Way National Poll Average showed Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3 points.

What about the swing state polls? Again, a close look shows that the 2016 polls performed just as well as they did in 2012 – no better and no worse. You can see this by calculating the “mean absolute error,” which measures how far away the polls were from the actual result, regardless of in which direction they were wrong.

So if Hillary Clinton won a state by one percentage point, a poll average that showed the state tied would have the same error as a poll average that showed Clinton winning by two. To put it simply, it is the size of the miss that’s important. The mean absolute error is calculated by taking an average of the misses. This gives you a sense of how far away the polls were from the actual results.

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rvacountrysinger
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20 Dec 2017, 8:06 pm

League_Girl wrote:

I would be shocked if he were reelected. Lot of people didn't even vote for him and even Republicans don't like him. Only way for him to be reelected is if someone else was running for president in 2019 and they are even worse than Trump. Some people voted for Clinton because they didn't like Trump even though they also didn't like Clinton either.

Trump's victory in 2016 was actually prophesied. And they also have a word of knowledge that he will win again in 2020. It will be a great era of prosperity for America. Except for his dissenters, which are really agents of Satan anyway, and they will not know what to do with themselves.

Kraichgauer
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20 Dec 2017, 8:10 pm

EzraS wrote:

Trump did lose - - with the popular vote. It was assumed the Electoral vote would sensibly follow the popular vote.

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Kiprobalhato
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20 Dec 2017, 8:47 pm

rvacountrysinger wrote:

League_Girl wrote:

poe's law has been evoked, it seems.

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kokopelli
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20 Dec 2017, 9:11 pm

Kraichgauer wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Trump did lose - - with the popular vote. It was assumed the Electoral vote would sensibly follow the popular vote.

Thank God that we have the Electoral College. Without it, the population of the big cities would have far greater influence over the government. The Electoral College helps to balance out the competing rural and urban needs.

kokopelli
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20 Dec 2017, 9:12 pm

rvacountrysinger wrote:

League_Girl wrote:

It's starting to get really bizarre around here.

auntblabby
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20 Dec 2017, 9:13 pm

more likely, it [electoral college] just keeps us backwards. and it is getting more than bizarre, downright obnoxious if you ask me.

kokopelli
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20 Dec 2017, 9:21 pm

auntblabby wrote:

more likely, it [electoral college] just keeps us backwards. and it is getting more than bizarre, downright obnoxious if you ask me.

A century ago, when so much of the population lived on farms, the Electoral College benefited the more populated states with big cities. It worked well then and it continues to work well today.

To me, the greatest advantage to the Electoral College is that Presidential candidates have to take every state seriously. If we did away with the Electoral College, then many of the smaller states would hardly count at all.

If you are a Democrat, then what would you say if we abolished the Electoral College before the next election (we can't do that anywhere near that quickly, but for the sake of argument, assume that we did) and the Democratic Opponent loses the popular vote in spite of having enough to have won the Electoral College if we still had it?

auntblabby
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20 Dec 2017, 9:25 pm

kokopelli wrote:

If you are a Democrat, then what would you say if we abolished the Electoral College before the next election (we can't do that anywhere near that quickly, but for the sake of argument, assume that we did) and the Democratic Opponent loses the popular vote in spite of having enough to have won the Electoral College if we still had it?

not that likely as cities/urban complexes are generally more liberal than the rest of the country.

kokopelli
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20 Dec 2017, 9:40 pm

auntblabby wrote:

kokopelli wrote:

not that likely as cities/urban complexes are generally more liberal than the rest of the country.

With the right candidate, it could happen.

auntblabby
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20 Dec 2017, 9:43 pm

kokopelli wrote:

auntblabby wrote:

kokopelli wrote:

not that likely as cities/urban complexes are generally more liberal than the rest of the country.

With the right candidate, it could happen.

with somebody like Reagan, perhaps. or a combination of a right-emulating democrat and a slightly lefty GOPer [basically extinct these days, William Weld was about the last one].

Marknis
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20 Dec 2017, 9:51 pm

rvacountrysinger wrote:

League_Girl wrote:

Oh, you are bound to get people to like you with this post. :roll:

Why isn't God blessing Armenia? They've been a Christian nation long before the US was even a thought. Why not Uganda? Argentina? Denmark? You really should come up in the world.

Misslizard
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21 Dec 2017, 10:03 am

Agents of Satan?Like Jesus would hang around Trump.
According to the bible Jesus was offered control of all world powers when he was tempted by the devil in the desert.Jesus turned it down.So who had control of those governments?The devil,or he couldn't have offered then up.
The Jesus that ran the tax collectors out of the temple would do the same to Trump.
So if there was any Satanic crap going down,it would be more likely that Trump was an agent of Satan.
Anyway,sounds like cloudcukkooland to me.

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