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ASPartOfMe
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22 Jan 2018, 11:56 am

No doubt we are in one, it is not just Wall Street, consumer confidence and business and probably full employment also. We have had tax cuts before but companies were not rushing out to publically hire people.

The boom makes little sense, it seems to me like one big Ponzi scheme. Spending is up but wages not so much, most jobs have little or no benefits, the tax cuts are going to explode the deficit(deficit hawks, does anybody remember them?) and most importantly the “too big to fail” situation that caused the recent depression was not only not fixed those criminals were are are being rewarded.


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The_Walrus
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22 Jan 2018, 12:57 pm

The difficulty is probably going to be consumer credit. There are a lot of unsecured car loans floating around which are likely to be defaulted on. I also think a lot depends on the Brexit deal. A poor deal, or no deal, will not only effect the EU and Britain generally (and therefore the world), but probably have a serious impact upon the City of London. Finally, there's going to be a crypto crash in the next two years, probably sooner. I would have hoped all financial professionals were properly hedged against that, but all it takes is one badly-placed idiot...

Important to remember that this is a global boom. There are some signs for positivity, including a general push towards free trade. Even Britain is talking about free trade. There are some major trade deals due to go through in the next few years, potentially including a resurrected TTP and even the original TTIP (due to Angela Merkel telling Trump he could have a bilateral trade deal with the EU :lol:). If Britain remains in the Single Market and party to the EU's FTAs then Brexit will have very little impact upon the global economy.



LoveNotHate
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23 Jan 2018, 7:32 am

The_Walrus wrote:
I would have hoped all financial professionals were properly hedged against that, but all it takes is one badly-placed idiot...

"A recent poll shows that nearly one-fifth of all Bitcoin buyers are using credit cards to fund their investments"
http://fortune.com/2018/01/13/credit-ca ... y-bitcoin/


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LoveNotHate
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23 Jan 2018, 7:43 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Spending is up but wages not so much, most jobs have little or no benefits, the tax cuts are going to explode the deficit(deficit hawks, does anybody remember them?) and most importantly the “too big to fail” situation that caused the recent depression was not only not fixed those criminals were are are being rewarded.

Corporate earnings are very good now.

However ....

-"S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index" (inflation-adjusted) is higher than in the "housing bubble"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

-"Shiller PE Ratio" is higher than 1920s "Black Tuesday" crash (and 2nd highest in history)
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

It's AMAZING how much "wealth" is being generated now.


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GCAspies
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29 Jan 2018, 11:04 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
No doubt we are in one, it is not just Wall Street, consumer confidence and business and probably full employment also. We have had tax cuts before but companies were not rushing out to publically hire people.

The boom makes little sense, it seems to me like one big Ponzi scheme. Spending is up but wages not so much, most jobs have little or no benefits, the tax cuts are going to explode the deficit(deficit hawks, does anybody remember them?) and most importantly the “too big to fail” situation that caused the recent depression was not only not fixed those criminals were are are being rewarded.

Spot on that the "economic boom" makes little sense because it is like a big Ponzi scheme. It only benefits a small percentage of the overall U.S. population (the extremely wealthy, Wall Street, Corporate America, etc.). Other than hearing how some people will benefit $40 a year on their tax return, how come we don't hear anything else about for the middle and low-income classes? Because they're the ones who are stuck with everything in the end. Besides, the "tax cut" will cause a $1.5 billion tax debt as a result of the GOP passing this legislation.

It is all about the current administration and GOP Congress fleecing the American public, making this supposed "economic boom" one big Ponzi scheme. And... the current administration and GOP Congress will continue fleecing the American public for as long as they are in office. The supposed "tax cuts" is only the tip of the iceberg. Wait to see what comes next.


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29 Jan 2018, 11:07 am

LoveNotHate wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
Spending is up but wages not so much, most jobs have little or no benefits, the tax cuts are going to explode the deficit(deficit hawks, does anybody remember them?) and most importantly the “too big to fail” situation that caused the recent depression was not only not fixed those criminals were are are being rewarded.

Corporate earnings are very good now.

However ....

-"S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index" (inflation-adjusted) is higher than in the "housing bubble"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

-"Shiller PE Ratio" is higher than 1920s "Black Tuesday" crash (and 2nd highest in history)
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

It's AMAZING how much "wealth" is being generated now.

The current "bubble" will be bursting at some point and people who have money in equities and in the stock market are gonna be hurting. The Bull Market will end and another Bear Market will start. Bonds will become a more favorable investment when the Bears arrive.


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"Empowering the lives of autistic adults and young adults and their parents/caregivers by serving as a resource center to provide mutual support, information, and activities" in the Southeast USA
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2nd Annual Southeast Adult Autism Symposium
- Early Bird online registration starts in late March 2018
- More information can be found at http://www.gcaspies.org/symposiumhomepage


kraftiekortie
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29 Jan 2018, 1:31 pm

From the viewpoint of recent college graduates, and many others, this country is not in a "boom" at all.

The unemployment rate is relatively low, not doubt. The question is: what sorts of jobs were gained since the Great Recession of 2007-2010?

There are many discontented people around, and some people who have given up searching for jobs.



hobojungle
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29 Jan 2018, 3:21 pm

According to Google, on average economic booms last 38.7 months & busts last 17.5 months.



kraftiekortie
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29 Jan 2018, 7:32 pm

I feel that this present "boom" is really not a "boom" in the sense that the 2002-2007 "boom" was a "boom."

Many people are being left behind.



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03 Feb 2018, 7:05 pm

worst dow-jones crash in a decade... so... I guess: until today...?


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Tollorin
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03 Feb 2018, 7:18 pm

shlaifu wrote:
worst dow-jones crash in a decade... so... I guess: until today...?

Where did you see that? I don't see it on the informations sites I'm checking.


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kraftiekortie
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03 Feb 2018, 7:50 pm

It might just be a "correction." The DOW dropped 666 points.

We'll have to see how the NYSE responds to this big loss. It's possible the 666 points might be regained rapidly.



ASPartOfMe
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05 Feb 2018, 4:49 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
It might just be a "correction." The DOW dropped 666 points.

We'll have to see how the NYSE responds to this big loss. It's possible the 666 points might be regained rapidly.

Dow down 1,175 today biggest one day point drop ever. Today's 4.6 percent drop is not the biggest one day percentage drop.


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GCAspies
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05 Feb 2018, 5:17 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
It might just be a "correction." The DOW dropped 666 points.

We'll have to see how the NYSE responds to this big loss. It's possible the 666 points might be regained rapidly.

Dow down 1,175 today biggest one day point drop ever. Today's 4.6 percent drop is not the biggest one day percentage drop.

I am looking at this market and thinking it hasn't dropped enough. I sense the market is overinflated from the "tax bill" that passed and produced excessive wealth for the top 1% and then some, only to recently ask for a $1 billion USD loan in return to cover up the minimum $1 billion increase in the rising debt.

Just my take.


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Tollorin
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05 Feb 2018, 5:56 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
It might just be a "correction." The DOW dropped 666 points.

We'll have to see how the NYSE responds to this big loss. It's possible the 666 points might be regained rapidly.

Dow down 1,175 today biggest one day point drop ever. Today's 4.6 percent drop is not the biggest one day percentage drop.

Guess the "666" points drop is bad omen. :lol:


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kraftiekortie
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05 Feb 2018, 6:34 pm

In 1987, the Dow dropped about 23 percent in one day.

A recession didn't result, surprisingly.