The real problem with the media
People complain about political bias of the media. Liberals complain about Fox News and conservative bias. Conservatives will point out that news reporters overwhelming identify as Democrat or independent instead of Republican. The real problem of the media is not one of political bias. It is one of an anti-reality bias.
The real problem with the media can be summed up in the old news maxim "Do not write about dog bites man that is not news. Instead write about man bites dog as that is news." This is a fundamentally reality distorting viewpoint. If you were to strictly get your information from the news, you would think that men biting dogs was more common than dogs biting men. Now most people know this is not the case for dogs biting men or men biting dogs, but it becomes problematic when you apply it to the modern day news bombardment.
There is another saying that "if you repeat a lie often enough and loud enough" it becomes the truth. People are susceptible to repeatable messaging even when they know it is false. The news is not outright reporting falsehoods (most of the time) but it is presenting the outlier cases in society. However, repeating the outlier cases often enough and loud enough has people believing these are more common than they actually are.
I'll take an historic example to avoid modern sticky subjects. In the 1970s Ford made a car called the Ford Pinto. The Ford Pinto had a design flaw where rarely it would explode resulting in the fiery death of its owners. In the 1970s death by driving a motor vehicle was commonplace. In 1975, 44,525 died in car accidents which is more than today despite a much lower population. People drive cars they get in accidents, they die: dog bites man. The Ford Pinto though on occasion exploded resulting in the deaths of 27-180 people: man bites dog. In fact this rate was so low that the Ford Pinto was statistically no more dangerous than any other comparable car of the era. Yet the perception was driven by the news coverage of these spectacular tank fires. The Pinto is still known today as an exceptionally dangerous vehicle. Reality distorted because tank fires were newsworthy but commonplace car deaths were not.
Sources:
Auto deaths 1975: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_veh ... S._by_year
Ford Pinto deaths: https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a ... uel-tanks/
Equivalency to other vehicles: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015 ... ers-lament
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"Ignorance may be bliss, but knowledge is power."
Very timely. We’re constantly being told about the number of cases of coronavirus and the death toll, but never about the cases and deaths from this year’s flu.
Other structural issues in the media include poor scientific reporting, and “false balance” - showing two equal sides to every story, even when there’s only one sensible side, or when there is three or more.
The percentage of people dying from the Coronavirus is much higher than with regular flu. 2-3%, vs 0.1% for the regular flu.
Still, like regular flu, the vast majority of deaths (especially outside China) occur with immunocompromised people.
It is a relatively serious illness due to its “novelty.”
Teach51
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I'm of two minds with regards to the Coronavirus and its news coverage. One it is obviously a serious new disease that at this point has broken containment. Two while we have a whopping 400 cases in the US multiple major universities have shut down and in the local Home Depot there was a woman shopping in a full gown and mask. The panic has spread far faster than the virus.
I think the Coronavirus death toll must be lower than 1-2%. The reason the virus has broken containment is milder cases go unreported. The virus also appears to either disproportionately be present in the elderly population, or disproportionately reported in the elderly population. We know the death rate is disproportionate in the elderly.
In my opinion the Coronavirus is likely similar in severity to the 2009 H1N1 flu. I'm trying to remember if panic was this bad in 2009?
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"Ignorance may be bliss, but knowledge is power."
To refocus on the media coverage aspect.
Let's say the Coronavirus has a 1% death rate. Seasonal flu has a death rate 0.1%. This makes Coronavirus 10x as deadly as the flu.
Seasonal flu cases in the U.S. number 50 million/year. Coronavirus cases number ~400 (let's call it 500). This means there are 10,000x as many cases as flu as Coronavirus.
If Coronavirus received 10x as much coverage as flu we would barely hear about it. If it received 10,000x less coverage we wouldn't know it existed. Fundamentally the news distorts reality.
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"Ignorance may be bliss, but knowledge is power."
Let's say the Coronavirus has a 1% death rate. Seasonal flu has a death rate 0.1%. This makes Coronavirus 10x as deadly as the flu.
Seasonal flu cases in the U.S. number 50 million/year. Coronavirus cases number ~400 (let's call it 500). This means there are 10,000x as many cases as flu as Coronavirus.
If Coronavirus received 10x as much coverage as flu we would barely hear about it. If it received 10,000x less coverage we wouldn't know it existed. Fundamentally the news distorts reality.
How so?
Coronovirus wont stop at 500. Its obviously going to infect millions. Which means there is every reason to think that it will kill thousands.
How so?
Coronovirus wont stop at 500. Its obviously going to infect millions. Which means there is every reason to think that it will kill thousands.
Presuming you're correct, seasonal flu cases in the US are 30-50 million per year with 30-50,000 deaths. Yet seasonal flu receives relatively little coverage.
If we were to assume Coronavirus will infect 30-50 million people in the US this year (it won't), and the death rate remains ~1% we could expect 300,000 to 500,000 deaths.
Honestly, that's a worst case scenario. 10x worse than what we experience every single year. Now think about how much media coverage seasonal flu gets in a normal year. If we expected news coverage to reflect reality, news coverage of the Coronavirus would be at most 10x what flu gets in a normal year. We're way beyond that.
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"Ignorance may be bliss, but knowledge is power."
I agree with the OP's point about the media.
But in regards to the coronavirus, the situation is a bit trickier because no one knows much about it yet. Right now, this instant, it would appear that most people have not been exposed to the virus. So the sane public health intervention is to try to stop the spread of the virus.
We may already be too late to contain the virus, but it is worth the attempt still at this point. If the outbreak can be contained, scientists have more time to develop a vaccine and maximize treatment options.
No one alive today remembers to spread of diphtheria and the quarantines that took place during an outbreak and the number of broken-hearted parents who watched all of their children die of it. We live in an age when few in the first world are exposed to serious contagious infection. So it is easy to think that the panic is baseless.
Panic is not useful. But an appreciation of the risk is.
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The river is the melody
And sky is the refrain - Gordon Lightfoot
But in regards to the coronavirus, the situation is a bit trickier because no one knows much about it yet. Right now, this instant, it would appear that most people have not been exposed to the virus. So the sane public health intervention is to try to stop the spread of the virus.
We may already be too late to contain the virus, but it is worth the attempt still at this point. If the outbreak can be contained, scientists have more time to develop a vaccine and maximize treatment options.
No one alive today remembers to spread of diphtheria and the quarantines that took place during an outbreak and the number of broken-hearted parents who watched all of their children die of it. We live in an age when few in the first world are exposed to serious contagious infection. So it is easy to think that the panic is baseless.
Panic is not useful. But an appreciation of the risk is.
^ I agree with this and the fact that the world knows so little about this virus. At face value, it seems this virus isn't as lethal or as high risk as many other diseases that have already been perennial for centuries (e.g. influenza). However...we don't know at this point. We don't have data. There are so many "what ifs". What if there is little to no immunity and a person can keep getting reinfected in rapid succession and be ravaged worse each time until they're killed by the virus? We just don't know yet.
Teach51
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Joined: 28 Jan 2019
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Posts: 2,808
Location: Where angels do not fear to tread.
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