trump has 91% chance of winning 2nd term professor says

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https://news.yahoo.com/trump-91-chance- ... 13320.html

This professor guy’s model sure does think Americans are stupid. I mean, who would look at the mess he’s made of the country, trade, international relations, the environment, gutting healthcare coverage and other social programs, immigration, skyrocketing national debt etc - everything - AND the more than 130,000 dead Americans from COVID and the lies he keeps telling and actions he’s taking that will all but certainly ensure that the death toll exceeds 200,000 and keeps climbing come Election Day and then still vote for him thinking he’s done such a bang up job he really ought to be granted another 4 years to just keep making America great?! Wow. Are enough people really that stupid for this to be able to happen?

Obviously only time will tell. I certainly hope that enough voters aren’t that stupid.

Professor Allan Lichtman -- a different professor -- was right in 2016.



HOWEVER, NOW HIS "KEY MODEL" shows TRUMP LOSING in 2020.


TRUMP is losing in 2020, based on this model because ...
-MAJOR SCANDAL
-NO MAJOR DOMESTIC OR INTERNATIONAL ACCOMPLISHMENT
-REPUBLICANS LOST SEATS IN BOTH CHAMBERS OF CONGRESS
-RECESSION
-LOW PER CAPITA ECONOMIC GROWTH
https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny- ... story.html

The thing is: When you sit in an echo chamber, ignoring anything from outside which doesn't match your beliefs\expectations, these things can sneak up on you...

Maybe it's time that you "got out" and actually made an effort to understand the people who live outside your bubble, instead of criticising\abusing them all the time? I'm sure they aren't as deplorable as you make them out to be.

Looking at the model, it makes sense why Trump is trying to get the economy open, as it would assist (potentially) in clearing the last 2 areas, and possibly the second as well.

Of course, there's still plenty of time (and 3 debates) for either side to use to help (or hinder) their chances.

Right.

It's weird, like a hidden pattern of reality.

One other point which I haven't seen addressed is a comparison of the public "support" (or otherwise) for each of the nominees.

In general, people will be more likely to go out to vote for someone who they support, rather than to vote against someone who they don't like, so the nominee with the most "enthusiastic" supporters has an advantage. While I have seen that Mr Trump has a large section of enthusiastic supporters (as did Mr Sanders), I haven't seen much indication of Mr Biden having this - whether because the news doesn't show\report on it, or because it doesn't exist - and so I'm curious as to whether this could also become a factor in the election results.

Lol wow have you even been following the orange guy for the last 4 years? He’s garbage.

Besides, I don’t even live in the USA. I think I’ve met 4 or 5 trump supporters here in real life. People here aren’t that stupid.

I’m ready for him to just catch corona and die already so I can focus my time on anything else.

the dynamics of the thing here [our national dysfunction] are that for a democrat to win, historically, he either has to cheat [mob helping JFK], or follow a widely observed outright crook [carter, following nixon, and ford for pardoning nixon], or be so daggone good that he knocks it out of the park [clinton/obama]. for a GOPer to win, he just has to be ambulatory [absent the other democratic conditions]. amuuuuricans have not proven to be the sharpest pencils in the box. plus amuuurica's worst mistake since electing woodrow wilson, has normalized and indeed glorified all manner of criminality in high places.

Considering the way you react to mention of Mr Trump on this site, I'm surprised even those 4 or 5 supporters let you know about that suppport...Maybe you have indeed met more, but they wisely didn't let on to you about that support?

too many amuuuricans will just stay home, 'cept for the highly disciplined GOP who ALWAYS vote lockstep. it is not enough that biden is not The Dotard, people don't really like him and they won't vote for him, the polls are way off here. the polls mainly measure how unpopular trumpy is but not how unattractive a candidate biden is. hate has more power than love in the land of the unfree, home of the wage slave.

I live on the West Coast of Canada and hangout with a bunch of naked hippies smoking weed and drinking beer at the beach. Almost everyone I know can’t stand trump.

Echo chamber confirmed, then.

That was the problem I was referring to earlier...
You will get a high % of those who "love" a candidate to go out to vote for them.
You will get a moderate % of those who "prefer" a candidate to go out to vote for them.
You will get a low % of those who dislike a candidate to go out to vote against them.

From what I have seen, Mr Biden is lacking in numbers of those who "love" him (Had Mr Sanders been the nominee, things would likely look much better for the Democrats, based on what I saw during the primaries), and so will need to rely on having a much higher number of "neutral" supporters and a huge number of those who dislike Mr. Trump, without which he starts with a large disadvantage (Things are different down here, with compulsary voting).

Of course, this only really matters in "swing" states, as quite a few states seem to vote for party rather than policy\personality, making it harder for a popular nominee to win in them when they are of a different party to the states traditional leaning.

That would certainly explain your disbelief\incomprehension with people having differing views of the world to yours...Maybe it's time the fishtank was cleaned a little, or some fresher water added to allow for the opportunity to see how things look on the outside (but only gently, as I believe goldfish can react badly to sudden changes in their environment)?

if only the GOP would stop hating on the poor/POC/gay/foreign.

I'm not sure that it is hate: just a different understanding of what is best for people\the country.

From what I have seen, the Democrats seem to believe the best thing for the poor is to give them money\services, whereas the Republicans see that as making them dependant on those "gifts" and would rather try to help them get into a position where they can support themselves.

This leads to the Democrats trying to help everyone (including those who lack a lawful reason to be in the country), whereas the Republicans try to help those poor who are legally in the country by removing the competition they face for jobs\income\etc. that comes from the people who are in the country illegally.