Canadian travel policy, some irony

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As anybody in Canada knows, residents of the US are not generally allowed into Canada because they (the Ottawa government) believe the risk of new COVID-19 infections being introduced from there is unacceptable. OTOH residents of France are apparently not subject to any restriction that I know of (a lady in Paris whom I follow on Instagram seemed to have no trouble going to visit her father in Montreal).

As you know, Montreal is in Quebec and 4 US states lie across the border from Quebec. I will consider 3 of those (New Hampshire shares the shortest border with Quebec but mostly I got tired of crunching numbers, something I'm not very good at). I have compared those 3 other states with France and you can see that allowing in residents of any of those 3 states is actually less risky than allowing French people in. I looked at the 2 numbers that some states such as NY use to decide which states' residents must undergo testing and quarantine if they want to visit. BTW my state (Maryland) is borderline in this regard. The 2 numbers are testing positivity rate and daily new cases per 100,000 population:

Jurisdiction Positivity cases/day rate
France 20.37% 4,711/day* 7.2/100,000
Vermont 0.42% 6/day 1.0/100,000
New York 0.79% 653/day 3.3/100,000
Maine 0.90% 24/day 1.8/100,000

*French cases per day from https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/france-covid-19-new-cases-post-lockdown-daily-record-13039582

I am not questioning Canada's policy, when the US as a whole is considered, I just happen to find this ironic. However I give Canadian WPers full permission to troll this thread should they wish.

USA as a whole: 66.8 new cases per 100,000, positivity rate 6.94% hence Canadian policy.

BTW I specifically mention Quebec because I have relatives in Montreal with whom I spoke for an hour last Sunday (I may post about this elsewhere on WP), so I have a particular interest in Montreal plus I spent a fair amount of time there when I was younger.

Other URLs:

https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases
https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity

MODs I posted this in PP&R because I thought that a good match (it addresses Canadian policy vis-à-vis the US which has proven controversial in the past). Please move it should you deem it necessary.

One additional thing to consider is that US states don't have restricted travel between states. So if one land border were to open, many people from states outside of the ones you mentioned would cross through. So the calculations would have to account for that factor as well. This would add many unknown variables.

What if Canada decides to build a wall to keep American refugees out?

I think the issue is about entry points. You can't drive from France and there are far few airports than border crossings. To man those crossings and monitor the health of people coming across is very complex. The other problem is that communities straddle the border. An increase in one community in COVID infections can lead to increases in the other. This is very different from transient ports of entry like airports.

I am also sure there are complex international agreements that effect this dynamic.

Well there are interstate restrictions. From my state, we would have to meet quarantine restrictions to visit NY, NJ, or CT. We are just shy of the criteria for not being restricted (very few states meet those criteria) but it's my understanding they are actively enforcing that, and people really have been fined for violating the order.

I think a bigger concern though is that unrestricted travel from the US would result in very large numbers of Americans crossing over. Even if France (along with some other large European countries) has questionable control over the pandemic at the moment, the number of French people actually arriving is going to be a tiny fraction of the number of Americans who would cross, even if limited to the 3 states I identified.

Oh that won't be a problem. Trump will pay for it!

EDIT however I was talking about tourists, not refugees!

Oh just wait and see.

How are they enforcing interstate restrictions?

I don't have a direct citation, but I've heard they are pulling out-of-staters over at tunnel entrances, Thruway toll plazas, etc., questioning them, and somehow making them prove they plan to quarantine. I think they may also be asked to show evidence of a recent test result. Otherwise I suppose you'll have to ask Dr. Google. But I think they're fairly serious and they are enforcing the policy, however I'm certain many have gotten away with not honoring it.

Americans are..rapists, murderers, and drug smugglers, on top of being disease ridden. And some of them, I am sure, are fine folks!

I said this back in 2017 or something when I read that Americans were fleeing to Canada to get away from Trump. I wrote "they should build a wall to keep out Americans" and I was joking of course when I wrote it.

How tragically funny. It feels like we are falling through the looking glass.

I've actually seen a lot of people make that joke on the internet. Pretty ironic to think that in Trump's quest to shut immigrants out of our country the other countries like Canada, Europe, and even Mexico are shutting us Americans out of there's.

Interesting. There is in fact some overlap when US states and Canadian provinces are considered separately. The situation in the US is more complicated than most people appreciate. The pandemic would seem to be under worse control in BC than in 2 US states.

What I don't like about this is that it's a single-day snapshot (this past Friday). I wish they had used 7-day rolling averages.