The growing Russian-Chinese alliance vs reeling America

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ASPartOfMe
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07 Feb 2022, 9:04 am

Russia and China Unveil a Pact Against America and the West

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In their matching mauve ties, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping last week declared a “new era” in the global order and, at least in the short term, endorsed their respective territorial ambitions in Ukraine and Taiwan. The world’s two most powerful autocrats unveiled a sweeping long-term agreement that also challenges the United States as a global power, nato as a cornerstone of international security, and liberal democracy as a model for the world. “Friendship between the two States has no limits,” they vowed in the communiqué, released after the two leaders met on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics. “There are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation

Agreements between Moscow and Beijing, including the Treaty of Friendship of 2001, have traditionally been laden with lofty, if vague, rhetoric that faded into forgotten history. But the new and detailed five-thousand-word agreement is more than a collection of the usual tropes, Robert Daly, the director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, at the Wilson Center, in Washington, told me. Although it falls short of a formal alliance, like nato, the agreement reflects a more elaborate show of solidarity than anytime in the past. “This is a pledge to stand shoulder to shoulder against America and the West, ideologically as well as militarily,” Daly said. “This statement might be looked back on as the beginning of Cold War Two.” The timing and clarity of the communiqué—amid tensions on Russia’s border with Europe and China’s aggression around Taiwan—will “give historians the kind of specific event that they often focus on.”

Beyond security, the declaration also pledged collaboration on space, climate change, the Internet, and artificial intelligence. Politically, the document claimed that there is “no one-size-fits-all” type of democracy, and heralded both forms of authoritarian rule in Moscow and Beijing as successful democracies. “It’s a pretty striking step closer to an alliance and shows that they’re very much aligned in their vision of the world order in the twenty-first century,” Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, told me. Putin described the broader strategic partnership with China as “unprecedented.” Xi said that their joint strategy would have a “far-reaching influence on China, Russia, and the world.”

U.S. experts described the lengthy statement, which was riddled with false and accusatory language, as startling. “I’ve never seen a joint statement from both leaders using this kind of language. They’ve joined forces,” Angela Stent, a Russia expert who served at the National Intelligence Council and wrote “Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest,” told me. She described the communiqué as “quite Orwellian” and called it an “inflection point” in which Russia and China are challenging the balance of power that has defined the global order since the Cold War ended, three decades ago. “We could be at the beginning of a new era as the Russian relationship with the West deteriorates and China’s does as well.” The agreement puts Washington and its key allies “in a terrible bind,” she added. “The fact is, whatever we do to counter what Russia is doing only reinforces its reliance on China.”

The joint statement is, at least for the moment, a diplomatic boon for Putin amid his showdown with the United States and Europe over Ukraine. For the first time in any of Russia’s recent aggressions, Putin has won the open support of China’s leader. China did not back Russia’s war in Georgia in 2008, or its invasion of Ukraine in 2014, nor has it recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Now Moscow and Beijing, which both have the ability to veto any resolution at the United Nations, have declared their opposition to further enlargement of nato and to the formation of other regional security alliances. “Russia and China stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions, intend to counter interference by outside forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext, oppose colour revolutions, and will increase cooperation,” the often unwieldy statement declared. “This is where they pledge their troth,” Daly said.

Andrew Weiss, a former National Security Council official who is currently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me. “Russia now has China as an endorser of the egregious and inflammatory position that Putin has staked out on Ukraine.”

In the new agreement, Russia, in turn, reaffirmed its support for Beijing’s One China policy that Taiwan is “an inalienable part of China, and opposes any forms of independence.” The joint communiqué also supported Beijing’s ruthless crackdown on dissidents in Hong Kong in the past two years. The bold assertions in the joint statement follow deepening military ties between the two nations in the past decade, Weiss noted. Russia and China have conducted dozens of joint exercises and war games that have involved as many as ten thousand troops to hone tactical and operational capabilities. Russian officials have boasted that the growing defense partnership was designed to warn the United States and nato not to pressure Moscow. The naval operations have included mock seizures of islands, patrols by long-range bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, and surface-to-air missile targeting. Last summer, Putin and Xi both witnessed military exercises in China. In October, they held joint naval exercises off Russia’s far-eastern coast. “The frequency, complexity, and geographic scope has steadily increased, reflecting the growth in the overall bilateral defense relationship,” the U.S. Naval Institute reported last year.

The joint announcement reflects a shift in the balance of power between Russia and China as well. “The Russians for the longest time were condescending in their view of China as an uninteresting rural society,” Weiss said. “Now China looks at Russia and says, ‘What are you good for?’ China’s ambitions do not run through Moscow.” China has become “canny” in exploiting Russia’s neediness, he said. “It uses Russia as a cat’s paw to disrupt the U.S. pivot to Asia. The fact that we have to keep coming back to Putin, as the neighborhood bully, is beneficial to China

Putin was the highest-profile leader to show up for the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing.

The question now is how far Russia and China will take their agreement.


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carlos55
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07 Feb 2022, 1:48 pm

They are basically trying to create a trade alliance free of US control for many countries of Asia and elsewhere in the world.

This will be dangerous for US as it means they are frozen out. The latest country to turn to China & Russia is Argentina.

Listen to the youtube clip the Argentinian president doesnt pull any punches

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NahTy6cQs5w


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The_Walrus
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07 Feb 2022, 4:12 pm

carlos55 wrote:
They are basically trying to create a trade alliance free of US control for many countries of Asia and elsewhere in the world.

This will be dangerous for US as it means they are frozen out. The latest country to turn to China & Russia is Argentina.

Listen to the youtube clip the Argentinian president doesnt pull any punches

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NahTy6cQs5w

I think that misses the mark entirely. China is pursuing trade policy largely independently of Russia, which frankly is not relevant to the South Pacific - most Russians live in Europe, after all. RCEP does not include Russia, as one illustration. The US’s decision to withdraw from TPP was a major blunder, although I am sure most of the nations would have been equally happy to join RCEP all the same.

This deal is about other concerns - the sorts of concerns that ASEAN are very deliberately staying out of. China basically doesn’t have any militarily-significant allies, other than perhaps North Korea. Their relationship with Pakistan is not nearly as close as the NATO relationship for example, and nobody in Europe is scared of Belarus. This is also excellent “red meat” for their domestic audience.

Fernandez is a windbag who is plainly speaking for domestic political audiences. While there are other dumb leaders of Latin American countries (Uruguay is a perennial one, and Brazil right now obviously, and potentially Bolivia and Venezuela form a group of their own), the Pacific nations are most relevant to Chinese interests, and they’re all in CPTPP or seeking to join. Argentina is literally as far from Russia as it is possible to get. They’re not going to benefit substantially from any cooperation with Russia.