Tory gloom ahead of triple by-election test

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On Thursday Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a triple by-election test, after three of his own MPs stood down. BBC political editor Chris Mason has visited each area to find out what activists and voters think of the parties' chances.

"We are going to lose them all horribly."

Political parties like to manage expectations before elections. In other words, talk down their chances. But there is no mistaking the gloom in senior Conservative circles about the three contests to become an MP in different corners of England.

Each race is fascinating because each offers an insight into the different varieties of race that will help shape the outcome of the next general election, expected next year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66231722

Bye bye Tories.

By-elections do not matter and you cannot predict anything about the subsequent general elections. Remember Corbyn mania? After all that excitement he went down in defeat that was equal parts historic, pathetic and ignominious and he was far from the first to have been convinced his success in by-elections would mean anything else. I really wish the Tory party would collapse, but I'm not excited at all by this.

There's a lot of expectations management going on. Tories are coming out everywhere to predict the losses of all three. That way if they manage to hang on to one, Selby most likely, it'll be spun as a massive win and presented as evidence that Sunak's leadership is strengthening them ahead of a GE.

Thing is, this approach backfired in the recent council elections where Tories were furiously briefing that they were going to lose 1000 seats, actually expecting to lost 5-600. They actually lost more than 1000.

So maybe they will lose all 3.

I disagree that it doesn't matter. It might not matter in terms of having much effect on the balance of the Commons, or as a predictor for a GE, but the result will have a psychological effect on all three of the main political parties and what they do between now and the GE. It may also have an effect on our media landscape. Murdoch does not like to be seen backing a loser in democratic elections, the more it looks like Labour are on course for a majority, the more we might see his papers swing behind them, as they did in 1997. So the effect is about momentum.

I don't think you can compare Corbyn and Starmer politically. Corbyn was a left wing nut job, Starmer is centerist like Blair and seems to be saying Labour will stick to Tory spending plans for the first few years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66215122

Personally I think it will be a hung parliament with Labour the largest party and a Lib/Lab coalition. I am a lib dem member as I want to see them do well in 2024.

It's not a Corbyn thing, it's a British politics thing. Doing well in by-elections then being wiped out in general elections is far from unusual. Only people really invested in politics bother to go out voting in by-elections. Their effect is often negated by the mass of more disinterested and differently swayed voters in general elections.

In very short: the ability to win a by-election says nothing about your ability to win a general election.

It's true that UK voters often use by-elections to give the ruling party a symbolic kick in the teeth. But I think this time we're also seeing the natural results of a party that has lost its mojo with the public. Partygate did them enormous damage and now they're naturally getting the blame for the cost-of-living crisis that has happened on their watch.

So they've lost 2 out of 3 seats, and they've only held onto the one by a slim margin. Boris as a right-wing populist had given them a new lease of life for a while, but eventually enough people saw through the con trick and I don't think the Tories would be able to do the same trick twice. Every time there's been a test it's shown that they're essentially a zombie government that time hasn't quite caught up with yet. I can't imagine them getting re-elected.

Yup, it was pretty bad for Tories. Losing Selby on that massive swing bodes ill for a GE - their base is sick of them.

Losing Frome to the Lib Dems is potentially the more worrying indicator for Conservatives - if the Westcountry has forgiven the Lib Dems for the Coalition years they'll be eating into the Tory vote as well as Labour.

But both wins were more about a lack of turnout among conservative voters - if you look at the actual switching votes, it's much closer. A GE will most likely see a bigger turnout and it may be the size of the turnout ends up being the most important factor.

Personally, I'm dismayed by Uxbridge remaining Conservative. Simply because it speaks to the effectiveness of anti-environmental policy campaigning. John Redwood and chums are already using this to put pressure on Sunak to row back even further on environmental policy.

I don't remember Corbyn having any good by-election results. Just checked and, yep, while Corbyn was leader Labour had nine successful defences, no gains, and one loss. The Lib Dems made two gains from the Tories in that time, both in fairly favourable seats.

Historically, by-election results have indeed proven a poor predictor of general election results. You don't have to look very hard to find examples of by-elections held shortly before a general election being won by a different party to the one that subsequently wins the general - Brecon & Radnorshire in 2019, Richmond Park in 2017, Rochester & Strood in 2015.

But there is good reason to think the next election will be bad for the Tories, and these constant unlikely defeats are part of that. They've now lost three seats (North Shropshire, Tiverton & Honiton, and Selby & Ainsty) that were among their safest in the country. They have a good chance to take them all back at the general election, and they might also retake one or both of Somerton & Frome or Chesham & Amersham... but they're 20 points behind in the polls, the economy is in the toilet, and public opinion of the government and Sunak himself is generally low.

Quite, I think people underestimate the extent to which narrative plays a compounding part too. If it's generally accepted that Labour will win the next election, that's what will most likely happen because there's an undefinable but I suspect significant proportion of voters who like to vote for 'the winner' just for the feel-good factor.

Very happy to see the Lib Dems doing well (I am a LD member). Hopefully they can get back to the level they had under Charles Kennedy (RIP).

Lib/Lab coalition next GE I hope.