DeSantis, Newsom agree to debate, Hannity to host

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Last week, DeSantis accepted an invitation from California Gov. Gavin Newsom — who has for months sought to challenge DeSantis face-to-face — to participate in a debate hosted by Fox News host Sean Hannity. The event is so far framed around the many policy differences between the two governors. But with both men either actively running for president or widely viewed to someday seek the office, it’s highly likely their personal differences will be on display, too.

As political strategists on both sides of the aisle told NBC News, DeSantis’ acceptance was not coming from a place of strength; he agreed to the challenge as his poll numbers have been trailing off and he seeks to reset his campaign.

What’s more, the one-on-one showdown carries considerable risk for the Florida governor, these strategists said, should he stumble or falter in the setting. With Newsom not running for president, DeSantis is taking time to confront an opponent who isn’t actually an opponent for 2024.

But some strategists said this still is a risk worth taking for DeSantis, in no small part because of the interest a California vs. Florida contest could draw in prime time.

“It’s a decent idea because Ron DeSantis has to find a way to break through and make some news on his own that’s not about Donald Trump,” Justin Clark, Trump’s 2020 deputy campaign manager and GOP pollster with National Public Affairs, said. “This does carry some risk — it’s not a Hail Mary, but it’s going for it on 4th down late in the first half.”

While DeSantis’ campaign has signaled it will lessen its focus on Florida to emphasize a broader message, the pending debate shows Sunshine State politics remain where the candidate finds his strongest footing.

“This gimmick is a sign of internal desperation after firing one-third of the staff amid a monthlong reset,” a Republican operative working with a rival campaign said. “If DeSantis and his team finally engaging with mainstream media interviews wasn’t a sign of how tough it’s gotten for him, this sure is.”

The event is not without risk for Newsom, either. For starters, it will be moderated by a right-wing opinion host — although Newsom’s calculus is that having Hannity moderate neutralizes a leading reason for DeSantis not to participate. Should DeSantis come across well, scoring points on Newsom in the process, the California governor could inadvertently play a role in boosting DeSantis’ GOP primary campaign while harming his own prospects for higher office.

At the same time, a strong performance could help elevate the California governor in what, for now, is a shadow 2028 campaign, in which Newsom is already considered a top-tier contender alongside fellow Democratic governors like J.B. Pritzker in Illinois, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, as well as Vice President Kamala Harris.

Jared Leopold, a Democratic strategist who formerly worked at the Democratic Governors Association, said the only thing that surprised him in this process was the selection of Hannity as moderator.

It’s a big stage that will allow Newsom to tell a story about California nationally — a story he “will tell as whatever point that he runs for national office,” Leopold said.

Politics is showmanship and this is a huge opportunity to put on a good show,” Leopold added. “Having this sort of prime-time fight, like a boxing match, it’s a venue where you can reach people because people want to see that kind of battle.”

Newsom has pledged not to run for president in 2024, but he has for the past year sought to take the fight to leading Republicans, including DeSantis. He made headlines last year after joining Trump’s social media site, Truth Social, and launched ads in Florida targeting DeSantis’ positions on education and abortion rights. The two governors have also repeatedly tangled on Covid, crime, guns and immigration — including in June when Newsom told NBC News he was planning to launch an investigation into planes of migrants flown to California, which were orchestrated by DeSantis’ administration.

The Newsom/DeSantis battle began amid a wider effort by Democrats in 2022 to redefine the argument around personal “freedoms” as culture war battles championed by DeSantis dominated the midterm landscape. Though DeSantis overwhelmingly won re-election, Democrats implemented such messaging to great success, besting Republicans in a number of critical swing-state races where it was prominently featured.

For DeSantis and like-minded allies, though, the Florida vs. California debate isn’t much of a fight. DeSantis has contrasted Florida’s increasing population (which the Census Bureau projected has risen by about 700,000 from April 2020 to July 2022) with California’s decreasing population (which the Census Bureau projected has decreased by about 500,000 from April 2020 to July 2022) as evidence that his model isn’t just winning, it’s already won.

In a memo to supporters, DeSantis’ campaign argued the candidate is squaring off with Newsom “to highlight the choice facing American voters next year."

“The left wants America to follow the path of California’s decline — Ron DeSantis wants to reignite the American Dream, restore sanity, and ensure our nation’s best days are ahead,” the memo read.