Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis? Who will be the nominee?

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Who do you think will be the 2024 US republican presidential nominee?

DeSatan is tanking in the polls. Trump is leading, but where his campaign goes hinges on whether or not he ends up in prison (which could be for life given the charges against him).

I would endorse Will Hurd, and would have considered Doug Burgum if he hadn't gone hard right on most social issues (he's probably the only one who acknowledges that climate change is real, though)

Of the higher-profile candidates, I would endorse Chris Christie.

In the general, I will likely vote for Biden.

Feels very likely to be Trump. DeSantis is proving to be a "the more they see of him, the less they like him" candidate and nobody else is even coming close.

My impression is that enough primary voters are loyal enough to Trump that he'll get the nomination no matter what. I mean, unless he's literally dead.

They don't usually choose someone who already lost an election to be the nominee.

Yes, but it has happened before.

Unless Trump slips on a banana peel and breaks his neck and dies he will be the GOP nominee. Even if he is in prison.

Whether he wins in the general is another question.

I generally agree with The Walrus's and naturalplastic's thinking on this question.

Where I do disagree is about Trump croaking. They will vote for the dead man because that would be the ultimate "piss off the snowflakes"/"own the libs" move.

Biden is a weak candidate. He'll get the anti-Trump votes but he doesn't have a popular following like Trump does. So probably he'll (Trump) regain the White House and punish those who supported filing criminal charges against him.

The economy is doing quite good now. And Biden did some popular things like cancel student debt. So he is actually a strong candidate though he lacks charisma and lacks a cult following. But the last is actually a selling point.

If there were a sudden recession, or a war broke out THEN Biden would get the blame, and then yes...Trump would regain the Oval Office. But if that doesnt happen then the odds are against Trump in the General even though he will be GOP candidate.

The GOP wouldnt nominate a dead man. But some folks would write in his name for that reason. But not enough to elect him president.

I would like to think you're right.

I was thinking of him croaking after he was nominated. The following was written in 2020 in response to Trump contracting COVID.
What happens to the U.S. presidential election if a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated?

Let’s say they do have time. In a sane country it would be automatically be assumed that the party would name a replacement for the deceased. We are not that country. These would be the reasons the Republicans would still nominate corpse Trump. They would believe that any replacement would get less votes then the late Donald Trump. The Republicans main goal is to own the libs or replace the Republic with authoritarian rule. The chaos and destabilization that would follow the election of corpse Trump would serve those interests.

But...the candidate picks his running mate right at the convention ...right on the heels of being nominated. So if any candidate chokes to death on a pop tart at his/her party convention the running mate automatically runs in his stead in the General..I would assume. So in effect it could be viewed either way..the running mate as candidate, or the dead man running via his surrogate whom the dead man endorsed as his surrogate.

Assuming is especially problematic when it comes to MAGA's. People have been assuming that this is the thing that will finally destroy Trump politically for eight years now. Why should I assume his dying would be the thing to do it? Yes, I think it is a real possibility that we are that f****d up.

True.

Trump himself says "I could shoot someone to death in Times Square and not lose any votes" (or however he says it), and thats the truth.

So yes...his own death might not even reduce his "popularity". But then if a dead Trump won then...we would have a dead man as POTUS. So how would that even work? His veep would have to be acting president, and probably would serve out his entire four year term. That unless congress was moved to do some emergency contingency like have a second election. But just letting his running mate serve as POTUS for the entire four years that the deceased Donald ran for would not be an insane or illegal thing to do. So thats the likely scenario IMHO.

And presumably the running mate would be viewed as having the blessing of the beloved but departed Trump.

Trouble is...it would not be QUITE the same as most running mates of most presidents. The elder George Bush had Reagan's blessings, and both secy of state Hillary, and veep Joe, had Obama's blessings as candidates for POTUS. But EVERYONE hired in government by Trump ended up being branded by Trump as being either an "idiot" or "spineless" or a "traitor". And Trump inspired his supporters to attempt to string up an actually MURDER his own vice president Pence.

So...just because you're Trump's running mate doesnt guarantee that Trump would not have turned on you...so the Trump faithful wouldnt necessarily view you as his stand in either.

Trump running mate? President RFK?