How much money should I bet?

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Friend: *sends trump reel*
Friend: ^^^I will bet you any amount you want that he wins 2024. I was right last time..

Me: He'll likely be disqualified, in jail, or both. Worst case he loses again like he did in 2020.



I didn't say anything else nor pick an amount but I'm strongly considering wagering some money on it. $100 at Least, but I think once we get up to around $1000 then things are getting a little pricey. I honestly don't think I'd lose and that I have a far greater than 50% chance of winning.. it's just that once you add another digit it starts looking risky/expensive I suppose, especially since I'm not much of a gambler. I don't buy lottery tickets or go to the casino etc, only buy some tickets on a house/car lotteries once in a blue moon.

So, anyways, whataya think.. how much should I propose we wager on this? This is one thing I'm willing to put up Some amount of money on. At LEAST $100 (that's not even a tank of gas in my little car these days so whatever), but probably not as much as $1000 -> however - it's not entirely out of the question, either. Most likely somewhere in between tho.

Don't underestimate the bad decision making of Americans who will vote for Donald Trump. He has a chance.

Your understandable bias against him might be making you think he will be less likely to win than he might be.

Not even my bias. Simple probabilities and statistics.

He'd have to survive every state level challenge to disqualify him from the ballot/have the Colorado one go to a federal decision and then have the corrupt scotus rule in his favour. Even that is unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. trumplestiltskin leading an insurrection *and then providing aid and comfort to insurrectionists* is exactly the type of event(s) that Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution was written for. If he can't be disqualified for That, then no one can ever. Even a pair of far right wing federalist society constitutional law professors have written a paper stating so. So, IMO, he has a greater than 50% chance of being disqualified from the ballot in the first place.

He's been indicted 4 times so far on 91 charges between state & federal. Feds don't bring cases they don't think they can win. That's why they have a 90% conviction rate. The probability of beating all of those cases is approaching zero. The only real risk is that he's successful in delaying them - but so far it seems some will proceed, and possibly wrap up, before the 2024 election. So, he could be convicted and in jail. Sure, he may still be technically eligible to run.. however, he would have to get enough votes to win - and that's highly improbable as his support dwindles the more his crimes come to light. His support from his lunatic base isn't enough to get him elected. He would need regular non cult member conservatives to vote for him As Well As a >50% share of Independent voters. He's losing support amongst independents as time goes on and information about his alleged crimes is more widely known. Once he's in court and more info comes out, and especially if/when he's convicted of any number of things, the probability that the vast majority of non-cult member conservatives And independents are going to vote for trump, a convicted felon, is Also approaching zero.

Plus I say he's been indicted 4 times so far because the grand jury (or special grand jury?) in DC that recommended the federal indictments is still meeting.. apparently about financial fraud, campaign finance fraud/misuse of funds, inauguration $ missteps.. and who knows, maybe emoluments clause violations up the wazoo ??? There will be more indictments coming. They're not finished yet. And the more that info comes out to all, the more sane people will drop support for him and he'll only have his most die hard cult45 members - which aren't enough votes to win a general election.

Beyond the money there may be more stolen documents at his bedminster property and another obstruction of justice charge coming with that one.

And then there are the civil suits.. he's going to have to pony up a lot more than $5M for the E. Jean Carroll rape/defamation round 2. Then the Stormy Daniels payday case and fraudulent accounting recordings. Then the NY State case seeking Minimum $250M, but likely to be multiples higher for all the banking fraud and benefits gained from it (NY State law doesn't care if you repaid the loans obtained by fraud, it cares how much financial benefit you gained From the fraud..) - which some estimate at $750M-$1B. People aren't going to take too kindly to any of this information, either. And by people I don't mean his nut swinger cult member base that will line up to fellate him during conjugal visits, I mean the sane conservatives and independents he would have to win over to get elected.

And then there's the whole abortion thing.. that's hella unpopular even amongst the red states - I can't imagine very many women/young people/people with their heads screwed on straight not voting Against trump simply to Hope that there may be a rebalancing of the scotus and things returned to sane. etc.


He has a chance alright.. but not a very good one! Me, not being much of a gambler.. I wouldn't bet any amount of money on it if I really truly didn't think that I had a far greater than 50% chance of winning. This guy is a smart guy, too.. business school instructor, but he is right smack in the middle of trump cultry. It's pretty wild. He keeps repeating the nonsense trump spews out on the internet about the indictments being a "witch hunt," and "election interference," lololol oh, honey, that's not how reality and the law work... trump is now smack in the middle of the find out portion of f**k around & find out and about to face Actual consequences for his crime spree. And I'm gonna take his cult member money -> better me than it going to trump's "election integrity defence fund campaign funding Not for personal lawyers that I don't want to pay for because I'm a cash strapped fake billionaire," grift-o-rama, IMO.

So...this guy you're making the bet with is himself a Trump supporter? Who lives in Trump country?

Sounds like his judgement is clouded by his own, and his neighbors' biases. In rural areas, even in blue states, you see Trump-Pence billboards on every barn. So its probably easy for the locals to become lulled into thinking that Trump has universal support because "everyone I know voted for him".

Trump will likely get the nomination, but loose in the general.

His indictments make his followers fewer, but also make the remaining supporters ever MORE fanatical because they buy into him being a martyr. So...maybe it cancels out, or maybe not.

And as you said...that one issue of abortion (Trump himself is a good marketer who warned the GOP to go easy on the issue for this very reason) is driving even red staters into the arms of the Dems in droves.

On balance I agree that even a Trump supporter should be objective enough to realize that the odds are somewhat against Trump. But if you're anti Trump you have to keep in mind that he has been counted out before.

So if I were you I would bet against Trump. Not sure how much though.

No, he's a local and lives 25mins from me here on the West Coast of Canada. ~38/39yo, went to public school together but he's a year or 2 younger than me. My aunt used to babysit him and his brother when they were little.

I still haven't replied with an amount.. I'm thinking about asking him how much he wants to lose and see what he says.. if it's between $100-1000 I'll simply reply "bet." If it's some BS like $50 then I'll have to do some thinkin'.. maybe reply with 10x or something. Heh.

Candy. Baby. Mine!