Lebanon will be sold by the US...again.

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I fear that Lebanon is going to be 'sold' by US....again.
After the assassination of the former prime minister Rafic el Harriri the Cedar revolution was born on 14 march and so the movement of 14th march was born . Because of this internal pressure (and by US pressure too of course) ,the syrian troops were forced to withdraw from Lebanon on 2005 after 30 years of occupation.

Two main politician alliances were born in Lebanon:
-The 14th march alliance: an alliance between many parties who are anti-syrian/iranian interference
-The 8th march alliance :an alliance between the pro-syrian and pro-iranian parties , the head of 8th alliance is Hezbollah which is the only militia party and play the role of revolutionary Iranian guards in Lebanon.

As by the fact that 8th march is supported by Syria and Iran , 14 march naturally had no choice but to make good bonds with US and France. Jacques Chirac's policy was always very supportive for 14 march because he was a personal friend with Rafic el harriri, too bad the new president of France is trying to compromise with the Syrians.

The 14 march alliance won the elections and got 72 seats out of 128 in the parliament and so they assigned Fouad el sanyoura who is close to 14th march as prime minister , it was the first time that the anti-syrian parties took the majority of the council parliament and the government , the 8th alliance refused the results calling the election as cheating and manipulated by the west. The gov accepted the UN tribunal to investigate about the assassinations(Four out of 72 14march's deputes were assassinated since the elections as well 14march supporter journalists and other vips were assassinated.) , the Hezbollah/Amal ministers refused that decision and took it as an excuse to resign from the government and to call the gov as 'illegitimate' since it doesn't represent the whole people anymore(??!).

As result the 8th march became opposition against the government for whole 1 year backed-up by Syria and Iran and the 'Lebanese' President Emile Lahoud who was brought during the Syrian occupation. After the end of the constitutional period of Lahoud's presidency , Lahoud had no choice but to leave his position at last.
The council's deputes has no the constitutional right to elect a new president but ,according to the constitution, 2/3 of the deputes must be present in the first reunion in order to start the vote for a new president , if not then only 50% of deputes are enough to be present in the second reunion and so the candidate who takes the majority of deputes' vote would be named as the new president.
The 8th march deputes are not coming to the reunion ,so the 14march alliance has the right to proceed with the presidency elections in the second reunion but Hezbollah and his allies threated to 'mess the whole situation' if the 14th march deputes dared to this step , that's why we still without president.
The 14th march were about to do the step but they were discouraged by the US and France .Knowing that Hezbollah is even stronger than the Lebanese army and nothing can stop it to start a civil war and since US and France didn't support that idea , the 14th march saw that the wisest decision is to name a neutral candidate for the presidency and this would be Michel Sleiman who is the head of the Lebanese army, a candidate who was accepted by the 8th alliance before . Now, the 8th march even refused that neutral candidate and they just want Michel Aoun who's the head of the Free Patriotic Movement , a Christian hezbollah's ally for presidency.

PS:On 6 February 2006, the Free Patriotic Movement which was a part of the March 14 Alliance signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Hezbollah and thus was considered by the March 14 Alliance as part of the March 8 Alliance, something that the Free Patriotic Movement refuses and insists that they are an independent political movement that instigated the original 14 March movement in 1989 and currently disagrees of the practices of the March 14 Alliance.

In the last few months , the US and France were not supporting the 14 march as used to and as supposed to be. In fact they are pushing the 14th toward the corner forcing them to do more compromises for the favor of 8th alliance.

With the decreasing rate of explosions in Iraq in the latest few month ...I can see clearly now what's happening:
The US knows very well that the US army can't stay so long in Iraq anymore and since the next US president would be a Democrat then the withdrawal of US army is very near.
Any military withdrawal in a such hostile environment would cost the US Army very great losses and the white house knows very well who's managing the militia's operations in Iraq : Syria mainly and then Iran.
So the US decided to make a deal with Syria and maybe even with Iran in order to avoid that


So here's the deal:
-Syria/Iran stop supporting the terrorists in Iraq so the US Army can tactically withdraw in peace from Iraq.
-In return for that , the US stops supporting the 14rh alliance in Lebanon and let Syria and Iran to have full influence over Lebanon.With the existence of the arms in the hands of Hezbollah and the absence of protective US support and so France(since Sarkuzi will probably follows US's steps) so Syria and Iran are gonna rule Lebanon through Hezbollah again. The 14th march Alliance who represents the free will in Lebanon would be lost forever.

And this is how Lebanon will be sold to Syria again as a piece of coin for a very dirty political deal.

Regards,

*bump*

No need to bump this LePetitPrince, It's simply too good of a topic not to get noticed sooner or later.

All I can say for right now is that I sincerely hope you're wrong about what's happening. Lebanon needs to stand as a stong Democracy in the middle east. Trading it away for short term political gain in the US would be the dumbest thing we could do.

I've always viewed the "War on Terror" to be a modern Peloponnesian war. The secular governments have no choice but to defeat the theocracies. If we fail, It could mean the comming of a second dark age.

Yeah, its a sad thing that Democracy was lost there to begin with - things really went sideways back in the 70's and 80's. Lebanon used to be referred to once as the Paris of the Middle-east, despite other connotations that may bring to mind I'd still like to see the gist of that returned; a thriving intellectual and artistic hot spot.




The hardest thing about that as well, the secular governments and their general populace don't have as strong of a mindset as the religious radicals - some people are willing to fight for their individual autonomy (and especially in regards to spirituality and way of life), other don't believe its even real but rather a contrived concoction of corrupt democracies, while people at the other end know what they mean and see it as this grand cosmic war between good and evil. I just really hope people can get their heads on straight and take a decisive stance - I especially hope the people of the middle east are able to throw the yoke of that sort of thing off because they're at the very front of it and suffering the most from the fall out (whether its sectarian violence, insurgent violence, or governments carpet-bombing infrastructure just to try to shut despots down - meanwhile it all has to be rebuilt in the end and costs all involved billions of dollars).

Thought-provoking post! A few questions:

1) You are suggesting that the Bush administration has abandoned their plan for remaking the Middle East (as outlined by the Project for a New American Century, complete with the 'Axis of Evil" list of countries to topple), and that they are in a secret retreat?

2) No mention of Israel in this thread yet. Given that a) Israel is a major regional military power next to Lebanon, and b) the relationship between the Bush Administration and Israel, I am wondering if: 1) Israel was consulted?, and 2) What is in this deal for them? They certainly are not going to like the idea of Hezbollah having any increase in support.

1) Bush administration knows very well that the Democrats will be the next rulers , so everything will be changed toward Iraq and Middle East. I can't 100% be sure that the Bush administration will retreat from Iraq or they are just expecting the retreat during the next Democrat era but what is sure that Bush admin is having great pressure from their people to retreat or to decrease the Amry's losses at least thus the deal with Syria.

2) Do you really believe that they would consult Israel about everything? You are giving Israel too much importance. The US will seek its benefits before Israel's benefits after all. Still this is a good question but ,as you know, Hezbollah get their ammo from Iran, so maybe Syria would stop helping Hezbollah according to this deal ....after all what matters most for Bachar el Assad is to protect his own regime and to get economical benefits from Lebanon. Besides,don't forget that the UN forces are on the frontier so Hezbollah are no threat for Israel for the time being unless if the UN forces leave Lebanon or if Hezbollah wants to suicide by starting a war against the UN,so against the world.

In case the UN leaves lebanon after the deal, Hezbollah and 8th march would take over Lebanon and if Hezbollah makes the same 'mistake' by launching operations against Israel(this is depending on the Iran-US relations in the future) , then the US will give the green light to Israel for a the largest carpet-bombing in Lebanon's history to destroy Hezbollah once and for all ...Thousands of Lebanese citizens would die and Israel may take heavy losses... but who cares?

All possibilities are beneficial for the US.

true

**bump**

this long thread is too young to die already

**b....u...mp** zzzzzZZZ

you got that right brah