The Trade Wars are coming

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I heard talk on the news the other day of countries gearing up for trade wars. Blah blah blah...I thought.

Then I wondered if this could be in the pipeline. I went right off the deep end and imagined that in order to get the western world out of recession another big war may be necessary.

Does anyone think our leaders would work together to stage a global war over trade? Remember that for our leaders and ruling elite wars serve a great purpose. Wars can motivate people. Wars allow certain new laws and customs to be put in place over night. Wars produce new resources (for the winners).

You know that "trade wars" aren't literal wars, but rather instances when various countries close their markets off to foreign imports in retaliation to other countries closing off their markets to foreign imports, right?

Yeah but it is those things that do eventually lead to war. Proactive wars are always economical.

+`1

it's really scary how we're repeating the same mistakes that lead to World War II

Yeah its like AS people do not learn from social mistakes or experiences. But humanity as a whole doesn't seem to learn from the way it interacts with itself.

Robdemanc posted: I heard talk on the news the other day of countries gearing up for trade wars. Blah blah blah...I thought. Then I wondered if this could be in the pipeline. I went right off the deep end and imagined that in order to get the western world out of recession another big war may be necessary. Does anyone think our leaders would work together to stage a global war over trade? Remember that for our leaders and ruling elite wars serve a great purpose. Wars can motivate people. Wars allow certain new laws and customs to be put in place over night. Wars produce new resources (for the winners).
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Does anyone think our leaders would work together to stage a global war over trade? Simplest answer: no. My personal view is that there is likely one or two politicians who could think momentarily in those terms, however, the notion of a global war (WWIII) is so distasteful that there has got to be a better way. At its worst, a nuclear WWIII could dramatically change who owns what country and where. At the same time, the disadvantages so outweigh the advantages of a nuclear war (my view) that a global war over trade is not an option. Too many politicians would die in a nuclear exchange and their goal is to live and enjoy life. WWIII is not a logical choice for politicians worldwide. Nuclear war would lead to lawlessness (my view). The UN is currently being used to avoid wars when possible and there is some evidence that here and there the UN has succeeded.

There might be war with Iran, but I cannot see any plausible situation in which WWIII would occur.

The phrase "trade war" does not mean a litereal shooting war.
It has to do with tarriffs- those taxes a country puts on imports ( and other govermental incentives and disincentives ) that make imports more expensive so the nations consumers will buy domestic.

If other countries retaliate with their own tarriffs you have a "trade war".

But even though the phrase doesnt mean armies are fixing to shoot each it IS a very serious matter if you're hearing that a "trade war" is coming over the horizon.

That is because that is exactly what happened on the eve of the Great Depression of the Nineteen Thirties, and what seems to have been the immeadiate cause of the Depression.

America's stock market collapsed in 1929. The economy sputtered. Unemployment sky rocketed.

President Hoover and his best advisers were at a lose as to what to do about it.
One remedy they tried was protectionism- setting up tariffs- to keep European goods out of America so Americans would be forced to buy American- and generate jobs here in America! Which in effect would also mean EXPORTing unemployment to Europe.
It had both effects.

Guess what.
Surprise. Surprise.
European governments retaliated. ( Duh!) And..we .. and still other governments retaliated against that retaliation.. and so on.. and so on...
The result was a barroom brawl of tarrifs- a "trade war"- the result of which was a collapse of international trade that nosedived America even deeper into the Depression-taking much of the world with us!

Once again our economy is on thin ice. So talk of a trade war is just about as alarming as a news of pending litereal shooting war!

The trade war may have already started, with the Fed's planned purchase of $600,000,000,000 in additional treasury bonds. The planning alone has already pushed the dollar down 10% against the euro and other currencies over the last 3 months. The devaluation of the dollar has the same effect as tariffs, since it makes imports from the rest of the world 10% more expensive, and also makes our exports 10% cheaper over there. As naturalplastic says, the effect will be to export some of our unemployment overseas.

Most overseas countries are already objecting:

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,6194162,00.html
http://www.salon.com/technology/how_the ... _the_world

We haven't seen retaliation yet, but if the U.S. stays on the track it's on, we'll probably see it within the next year.

If a decade of growing isolationism passes before we get to war with Iran, they may well have puppet governments installed in Iraq, Afghanistan, and possibly Pakistan. They'll also likely have nuclear ICBMs by then, the way things are going. A war with Iran could then be nuclear, and it could drag in India, China, and Arabia. That would pretty much be WWIII, and I don't think that scenario is so implausible.