Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

Post Reply New Topic

The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) reports that a third possible human case of bird flu has been identified in California. The case was identified in a Central Valley individual who had contact with infected dairy cattle. Specimens are being sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to undergo confirmatory testing.

There is no known link or contact between this and the first two cases reported [earlier], suggesting only animal-to-human spread of the virus in California. All three individuals had contact with animals at three different farms. Like the first two cases, this individual also experienced mild symptoms, including eye redness or discharge (conjunctivitis).

Source: Third Possible Human Case of Bird Flu Detected in California

A third farmworker has tested positive for bird flu in California, according to the state’s health department. If confirmed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this would be the 17th human case of H5N1 flu in the US since March, when the virus was first detected in cows.

It comes as farmers and veterinarians in California are warning that the infection seems to be striking herds more severely than it has in other states, leading to higher percentages of sick and dead cows in impacted herds.

Source: As bird flu outbreak expands in California, dairy farms report it’s worse than they expected

This is a report summary from China that covers the various types of Avian Influenza outbreaks in humans including H5N1 globally from 2003 to present.

Avian Influenza Report

Here’s the biggest problem. The current general H5N1 status of U.S. dairy cows, beef cattle, swine or humans is unknown because no valid national testing surveillance has occurred.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the CDC are set up to find infections when they cause illness – not to do a broad sweep to catch and identify the less dramatic extent of mild, asymptomatic or hidden penetration of the virus throughout the country.

As bird flu infects people, cows in Central Valley, our health officials can’t let post-COVID guard down

In other words we are operating in the blind.
H5N1 is a very different virus then COVID. It is a hundred times more dangerous. Instead of killing the elderly and most vulnerable, it strikes the strong and healthy. These are adults between age 20 and 40. And it strikes so fast, so utterly fast.

When a variant behaves in a very new way, scientists refer to it as a new strain. And although H5N1 has grabbed headlines throughout 2024, the current variant actually emerged in Europe four years ago. It didn’t really become a big global threat until late 2021.

Since then, though, it’s thought to have killed millions of wild birds.

In Peru alone, more than 100,000 wild birds have died. Russia and Canada have documented tens of thousands more bird deaths. In the United States, roughly 10,000 wild birds have tested positive for avian flu. And in October 2023, H5N1 arrived in the Antarctic region for the first time. It killed a type of seabird — skuas — in the Falkland Islands there, as well as albatrosses and gentoo penguins.

Beyond birds, a polar bear on the North Slope of Alaska, way above the Arctic Circle, died from this flu late in 2023. Last December, the state’s veterinarian confirmed it had H5N1.

That same month, news came of a devastating die-off of southern elephant seal pups in Argentina. Researchers had collected data on three beaches where the seals haul out to calve. Most of the babies died from bird flu. Indeed, by the end of November 2023, only five in every 100 pups were still alive.

If this same rate of losses from H5N1 happened throughout the regional population last year, the researchers noted, “it is estimated that more than 17,400 [pups] may have died in this epidemic.”

Since then, H5N1 infections have been hitting poultry farms, dairy cattle — and the occasional farmer. And then there’s felines. Cats big and small have sometimes died. For instance, the virus has killed at least 22 mountain lions. It also sickened at least 10 bobcats, killing at least seven of them. Other big cats to die of this virus: a captive leopard in New York and a captive tiger in Nebraska.

Still, “most people have no idea that we are in the middle of a wildlife emergency — an animal pandemic.”

In 2024, bird flu posed big risks ­— and to far more than birds

It's weird how this flu is killing all sorts of non-humans but doesn't appear to have become a major problem for us, at least not yet.

In a way it is effecting us. Millions of chickens have died or been killed which has raised the price of eggs. Many cows have become sick which has affected the supply of milk. Many animals have been effected almost to the point of extinction. As the virus changes and becomes more lethal, it might actually become extremely dangerous to humans and hundreds of millions of people may die very quickly. STAY ALERT, STAY ALIVE.

As a rapidly increasing number of California dairy farms suffer outbreaks of H5N1 bird flu, industry experts say it remains unclear just how the disease may affect the nation’s milk supply or pricing. As of Oct. 9, the nation’s largest milk producing state had reported 93 H5N1 outbreaks in dairy herds — nearly doubling in the span of a week. The Los Angeles Times reports there have also been three confirmed and two presumptive cases of human infection. All five cases were among Central Valley dairy workers who had no known connection. Dairy farmers and veterinarians are reporting far greater rates of mortality among infected herds than anticipated and steep drops in the rate of milk production among recovered cows.

Source: H5N1 on the Rise in California Dairy Herds

The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) reports that a fourth human case of bird flu has been confirmed in California. All four individuals had contact with infected animals at four separate farms.

Source: Fourth Human Bird Flu Case Confirmed in California

Last edited by jimmy m on 11 Oct 2024, 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

Autumn migration threatens to trigger bird flu outbreaks

As autumn approaches, the migration of wild birds poses a significant threat to the spread of avian influenza, particularly the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus. This seasonal movement of birds can exacerbate outbreaks, impacting both wild and domestic bird populations globally.

Wild birds, especially waterfowl, are natural reservoirs for avian influenza viruses. During migration, these birds travel long distances, often crossing continents, and can carry the virus to new regions.

In the United States, the autumn migration coincides with increased risks of infection in poultry farms. The 2022-2024 outbreaks led to the culling of over 100 million chickens and turkeys, causing significant economic losses.

H5N1 is still dramatically raising the price of eggs in the U.S. California is feeling even greater damage because they have forced the state to only sell Cage Free eggs. It seems that greater outdoor exposure for chickens means higher death rates among chickens.

Source: Eggs Are Pricey Again. Bird Flu Is Taking a Toll.

The bird flu outbreak began in the U.S. in 2022, first in wild birds and then in domestic poultry. It spread to dairy cattle early this year, and has since sickened at least 17 people, most of them farmworkers. Because of the rapidity with which the virus, known as H5N1, can spread through a flock, and the extremely high death rates among infected chickens, farmers are required to cull all of their birds if they find just a single confirmed case of the virus.

The USDA has reported a particular squeeze in the cage-free market, which adds to the pressure in states such as California, which require all eggs to be laid by cage-free hens.

A vaccination campaign targeting ducks, the farm birds most at risk of getting and spreading bird flu, succeeded in greatly reducing outbreaks of the virus on poultry farms in France

France slashed bird flu outbreaks by vaccinating ducks

Bird Flu has also been exploding in South Africa. This outbreak seems to be concentrated in Benin, Guinea, and Nigeria.

South Africa reports progress on recovery after avian flu outbreaks

At the end of September, the national veterinary authority declared to the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) that a series of outbreaks linked to the H5N1 variant had been “resolved” earlier in the same month.

Between April of 2023 and mid-September, domestic birds (poultry and ostriches) tested positive for this virus at 29 commercial premises spread across most of the country’s provinces. Directly impacted were close to 1.85 million birds in total.

So far, the number of the nation’s poultry affected by this virus variant has passed 11.9 million at a total of 116 commercial premises. Majority of the outbreaks occurred in Gauteng, although cases were confirmed in seven other provinces.

I consider West Nile Virus to be like a twin disease to H5N1. So tracking WNV in the U.S. is worth doing. The following link provides the latest information on WNV in the U.S.

West Nile Virus

The number of cases in the U.S. has been growing dramatically this year.

On 8 October, they just reported "Nationally, 976 cases diagnosed in 46 different states".
On 1 October, I reported "Nationally, 880 cases have been diagnosed in 46 different states".
On 17 September, I reported "Nationally, 491 cases have been diagnosed in 39 different states".
On 9 September, I reported "Nationally, 377 cases have been diagnosed in 35 different states".

Europe has reported:

Since the beginning of 2024, and as of 9 October 2024, 19 countries in Europe reported human cases of West Nile virus infection: Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Türkiye.

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: Surveillance of West Nile Virus infections in humans
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: Surveillance of West Nile Virus infections in humans

H5N1 is exploding in California.

California reported its first outbreak in dairy cattle in the Central Valley in late August, but the state—the nation’s largest dairy producer—has quickly become the hardest hit. So far, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has confirmed 100 H5N1 cases in dairy herds.

If the CDC confirms California's five probable cases, the state’s number of infections in dairy workers would rise to 11.

Source: California reports 4 more probable H5 cases in dairy workers

I began this thread over 5 months ago. I was exploring the growth of H5N1 from birds and chickens to cows and goats. At the time the advice on how to protect yourself from getting the disease was minimal. They said drinking milk was O.K. because it was pasteurized. I interrupted and said not all milk is pasteurized. Some people drink raw milk. I also said that some people eat cheese that uses unpasteurized milk. I began this thread looking outside the box. Well I came across an article today that goes into a deeper discussion of potential dangers in consumption of drinks and foods.

Ex-FDA food chief issues 'do not eat warning' over breakfast foods potentially infected with H5N1

A former FDA food safety expert is urging Americans to change their cooking and grocery habits amid a growing bird flu outbreak on U.S. dairy farms. In light of this, ex-government food tester Dr Darin Detwiler told DailyMail.com people should begin making some dietary changes.

He said raw eggs pose the biggest risk, so popular breakfast items like soft-boiled eggs, poached eggs, or dishes like eggs Benedict should be avoided all together. This is because the eggs 'may not reach a temperature high enough to kill any viruses.'

The food safety advisor recommends also ditching egg-based condiments such as mayonnaise and aioli in the run up to Christmas, while desserts such as mousse and tiramisu also require raw eggs for some recipes.

Salad dressings are also a risk so if you are ordering out, the safest options are a simple olive oil or vinaigrette.

He explains: 'Caesar salad dressings, hollandaise sauce, and other similar products often contain raw eggs, which may pose a risk if not properly pasteurized.'

--------------------------------------------

Many foods and drinks may be a transition agent for Bird Flu. But perhaps humans have a bit of a safety net. The foods we eat pass through our stomach which is highly acidic. So I wonder if these acids provide a degree of protection. It that is the case then perhaps there is another threat to be considered. Some people have ulcers.

Peptic ulcers happen when acid in the organs that food travels through, called the digestive tract, eats away at the inner surface of the stomach or small intestine. The acid can create a painful open sore that may bleed.

So I wonder is peptic ulcers will make humans more vulnerable to H5N1.

Last edited by jimmy m on 16 Oct 2024, 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Avoiding a small risk of bird flu at the cost of a 100% chance of ruined eggs doesn't seem like a good cost/benefit trade-off.