Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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On 27 June 2024, 9:49 A.M., I summarized the approach to survive a very deadly disease called H5N1 Avian Flu, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. I have covered a lot of information over the past several weeks on the next potential pandemic called H5N1. I have come to realize this pandemic will primarily be transmitted by insects, primarily Mosquitoes. Mosquitoes infect humans with a blood to blood transfer between infected to uninfected birds/animals/humans.

There’s a saying that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

H5N1 has spread across many types of birds dealing wave after wave of deaths. In the last few years, it has infected over 500 different species of birds, driving some to near extinction. This virus has established its presence in 108 countries, across five continents. It even transitioned to chickens. But it is on the move and has impacted many types of animals, most recently dairy cattle. It has spread to 70 mammal species globally. It is in our homes (cats and mice). During the beginning of 2025, bird flu made the transition to sheep in the U.K. It is on the move and another species is contracting this threat. It is beginning to show up in pigs as a very deadly Swine Flu. -- Pigs are a "mixing vessels" for influenza viruses, specifically those infecting birds, humans, and other pigs. If H5N1 were to become endemic in U.S. pigs, then those viruses could undergo genetic reassortment, creating entirely novel strains, very deadly human strains.

This virus has been evolving over the past few years. It began with birds and spread to animals and humans. The disease is passing across a maze of viruses in recent years including H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, H5N5, H5N6, H5N8 and H5N9. But in my opinion the primary threat is H1N1.

H1N1 decimated the human population during the First World War. It went by many names including the Spanish Flu which killed between 50 and 100 million people during the period from 1918-1919. This plague went by many names. The Americans fell ill with "three-day fever" or "purple death." The French caught "purulent bronchitis." The Italians suffered "sand fly fever." German hospitals filled with victims of Blitzkatarrh or "Flanders fever. Sand fly fever is an arthropod-borne viral disease, also known as “Phlebotomus fever”, “mosquito fever”.

From 1918 to 1919, the Spanish flu infected an estimated 500 million people globally. This amounted to about 33% of the world's population at the time. In addition, the Spanish flu killed about 50 million people, about 6 percent of the Earth's population. Since the world population has grown around 5 times in the last 100 years. The threat might impact 2.5 billion people should it materialize today.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVpBFy_TRtA

How were the victims of H1N1 treated in front line hospitals during 1918/1919? No matter what they called it, the virus attacked everyone similarly. It started like any other influenza case, with a sore throat, chills and fever. Then came the deadly twist: the virus ravaged its victim's lungs. Sometimes within hours, patients succumbed to complete respiratory failure. Autopsies showed hard, red lungs drenched in fluid. A microscopic look at diseased lung tissue revealed that the alveoli, the lungs' normally air-filled cells, were so full of fluid that victims literally drowned. The slow suffocation began when patients presented with a unique symptom: mahogany spots over their cheekbones. Within hours these patients turned a bluish-black hue indicative of cyanosis, or lack of oxygen. When triaging scores of new patients, nurses often looked at the patients' feet first. Those with black feet were considered beyond help and were carted off to die.

In my humble opinion, these diseases are transmitted by insects. An insect bites an infected bird/animal/human and then transmitted the blood directly to another bird/ animal/human. The following is a good approach to limiting the spread in humans.

1. You can protect yourself from mosquito bites in two ways. If you spend a lot of time outdoors you can create protective clothing (boots, clothing and camping gear) that repel mosquitoes by treating them with Permethrin.

2. You can also protect yourself from mosquito bites by applying mosquito repellent on you skin. This will provide short protection (several hours) to drive away mosquitoes. There are a variety of products available. They include DEET, Picaridin, IR3535, Oil of lemon, Para-menthane-diol eucalyptus, and 2-Undecanone.

3. Another product that can help prevent mosquito bites is Metofluthrin. Metofluthrin is a pyrethroid used as an insect repellent. The vapors of metofluthrin are highly effective and capable of repelling up to 97% of mosquitoes in field tests. Metofluthrin is used in a variety of consumer products, called emanators, for indoor and outdoor use. These products produce a vapor that protects an individual or area. Effectiveness is reduced by air movement. Metofluthrin is neurotoxic, and is not meant to be applied directly to human skin.

4. Accidents can happen. What to do immediately after being bitten by a mosquito? Treat the bite with Tecnu Topical Analgesic Anti-Itch Spray (Diphenhydramine HCl 2%). There is another product that can diminish the effects of being bitten by an infected insect. It is called ChiggereX. This product contains 10% Benzocaine.

5. When people were struck with H1N1 in 1918, they entered a death spiral in less then a day after showing symptoms. Fluid had filled both lugs. They could not breath air. It was so quick and so dangerous. "People were turning dark blue from lack of oxygen". One nonprescription drug removes excess fluids from the lungs. It is called BRONKAID Max. It contains Ephedrine Sulfate 25mg Bronchodilator.

6. If you become infected with H5N1 treat the condition immediately using one of four FDA-approved antivirals for influenza: (1) Baloxavir (Xofluza), (2) Zanamivir (Relenza), (3) Peramivir (Rapivab). These are prescription drugs and will require a doctors prescription. Time is of the essence here. This condition will begin to destroy the human body and make it impossible to treat within a few days. Time is of the essence.

The latest research has shown that another drug called Oseltamivir phosphate (Tamiflu) is ineffective in treating this disease in recent cases in both humans and chickens.

7. Some people are very vulnerable to mosquito bites. These are people with open wounds. Just covering the wounded area with bandages will not protect you. Mosquitoes can smell your blood and you become a prime target. I suffered a small bleed and was attacked by around 50 mosquitoes in less then two hours outdoors. (Luckily I had protected myself with DEET before I went outside and as a result, NOT ONE MOSQUITO WAS ABLE TO BITE ME.) This may also be a problem for women who are going through their menstrual period.

8. Go on the offensive. Wage a war on mosquitoes. In general, mosquitoes live in a hot humid environment. They most commonly infest Ponds, Marshes, Swamps, and Other wetland habitats. So minimize their breeding grounds. Wage war on mosquitoes.

9. Use our friends. What, you didn't realize we have allies in our war on Mosquitoes? We have many friends. Some are birds like woodpeckers, some are other insects like dragonflies, some are fish like gambusia affinis.

10. Wastewater tracking of H5N1 can identify the specific regions in the U.S. where the outbreak is underway. One of these regions is San Francisco, California. This area could be Ground Zero of the outbreak. But we cannot monitor the threat because the funding for Wastewater tracking has been halted. But time has been wasted and H5N1 is on the move and Central Valley in California is in the epicenter.

11. Vaccinations may provide protection from a very deadly form of H5N1. A neutralizing antibody bnAb called MEDI8852, which was discovered and developed by Medimmune, now part of AstraZeneca. MEDI8852 targets a portion of a key flu protein that is less prone to change than other parts of the virus and thus is capable of conferring protection against a wide range of flu viruses. This vaccination was tested on Macaque, a species (with almost human qualities), and this vaccine provided a remarkable and measurable cure.

12. Another recent laboratory study described a vaccine that was effective in treating H1N1 in swines. The study, “Epitope-Optimized Vaccine Elicits Cross-Species Immunity Against Influenza A Virus,” describes a vaccine that protects against H1N1 swine flu and can also protect against influenza in humans and birds. Swine vaccinated with the immunogens designed in Weaver’s laboratory exhibited no signs of illness after being exposed to a commonly circulating flu strain; developed antibodies against a multitude of viruses from several decades and multiple species; and maintained their immune response throughout the six-month longitudinal study. [Pigs can act as mixing vessels in which two different viruses can reassort (i.e. swap genes) and new viruses that are a mix of pig, bird, and human viruses can emerge.]

In the historic past, migrating birds were the long distance transport agents of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1. Seasonally they would move the infectious disease between the northern and southern hemispheres as the seasons changed from summer to winter. But now as humans have developed means of rapid transport, such as jet aircraft, the speed and distance this virus can spread is rapidly accelerated.

Bird Flu has been moving across various species and inching its way closer and closer to humans. One of the ways we protect ourselves from dangerous diseases is vaccination. One of the approaches that could be used to diminish the spread of diseases is Vaccinate Animals.

As Bird Flu Spreads, Vaccine Shows Promise for Protecting Cattle

New research, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, found that calves administered an experimental bird flu vaccine made protective antibodies. When later fed milk from infected cattle, the vaccinated calves showed lower levels of the virus than unvaccinated calves.

Animal health body says vaccines needed to protect humans and trade

Vaccinating animals more widely could help stop the spread of deadly diseases, protect public health and keep global trade flowing, the head of the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) said.

While most countries rely on culling policies and movement restrictions, the WOAH said vaccination could help reduce outbreaks while preserving trade. If properly implemented, vaccination limits virus spread, protects animal health, and lowers the risk of human infection.

In France, a nationwide duck vaccination effort helped cut bird flu outbreaks from over 300 to just 10 within a year. The United States and Canada eased their ban on French poultry imports in January, citing good traceability and monitoring.

Vaccination has helped eliminate or control other animal diseases, including rinderpest in 2011, the first animal disease ever eradicated globally, and only the second of any kind eradicated after smallpox in humans, WOAH said in its report.

I had described an important observation about treating H5N1 / H1N1 pandemic. In the 12 step approach, item 6 noted:

The latest research has shown that another drug called Oseltamivir phosphate (Tamiflu) is ineffective in treating this disease in recent cases in both humans and chickens.

A recent webinar describes this important finding at 17 minutes into the talk.



Confers strong resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir (Tamiflu)

Herd Immunity - means "enough people in a group or area have achieved immunity against a virus or other infectious diseases to make it very difficult for the infection to spread. Can humans and other animals develop a herd immunity to H5N1? This seems like an appropriate question to ask as H5N1 is passing quickly from one species to another to another at breakneck speed.

One region in Canada experienced an outbreak of deadly H5N1 in Ostriches.



Sixty-nine of the flock died of avian flu in December and January, but the owners of Universal Ostrich Farms say the remaining 400 or so birds are healthy and have acquired herd immunity, making them valuable scientific subjects.

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency says it will go ahead with a cull of ostriches from a farm in Edgewood, B.C. Dozens of protesters gathered at the farm to try to prevent the cull ordered by federal authorities. Some remain camped at the farm, and have been calling for more to join them.

CFIA says B.C. ostrich cull will go ahead

Perhaps the Canadian Government is missing a opportunity to learn more about this deadly disease and how to survive this growing and evolving pandemic.

Canada has given the death sentence to 400 living and well ostriches.

There’s grief, anger, but also relief mixed into the range of emotions following a recent British Columbia court ruling that meant a death sentence for 400 ostriches.

In a 137-page ruling, the Federal Court justice hearing the case made a heart-wrenching decision, while expressing sympathy for a family devastated by the pending destruction of these birds under order from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

Their owners, Universal Ostrich Farm near Edgewood, B.C., have vigorously campaigned to block last December’s directive to cull the whole flock after tests confirmed 69 sick and dying birds were infected with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza.

Court made a tough but necessary call in B.C. ostrich cull due to avian flu

So far this bird flu disease has continued to explode throughout North and South America from one species to another to another during the past few years. What efforts have governments tried to halt the spread other then kill, kill, kill.

As a wave of Bird Flu passes through different bird and animal species, it moves very rapidly. Within days, huge kill events happen and the bodies lie decaying on the ground. Consider the ostriches. A wave of death struck a herd and many died. But some lived. Months have passed and they still live. So did they develop a natural immunity? That is a good question and it needs an answer. It is not that these birds had a natural immunity but rather did they develop a natural immunity.

When a severe virus strikes humans, some humans will survive as their bodies create an immunity to the disease. This happened during the First World War when H1N1 raced across the world, killing between 50 and 100 million people during the period from 1918-1919. But many people survived after becoming infected and were able to build up an immunity to the plague.

Ostriches facing cull at Canada farm find unexpected allies

An ostrich farm in Canada's British Columbia that is fighting to save almost 400 birds from a cull has caught the attention of Trump administration health officials Robert F Kennedy Jr and Dr Mehmet Oz.

The farm had confirmed cases of the avian flu in December and January, though it said there have been no instances of the virus since.

This month a Canadian court upheld the cull decision by the nation's food inspection agency, which said killing the birds was necessary to prevent the virus from mutating and to stop its spread.

On Friday, Kennedy appealed directly to Canadian officials, urging them instead to consider studying the ostriches for bird flu antibodies.

In a letter to Paul MacKinnon, president of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), posted to X, the US health secretary also offered full support for the National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drugs Administration's diagnostic testing and research efforts.

"The indiscriminate destruction of entire flocks without up-to-date testing and evaluation can have significant consequences, including the loss of valuable genetic stock that may help explain risk factors for H5N1 mortality," he said.

Kennedy's letter was co-signed by Jay Bhattacharya and Martin Makary, heads of the two US agencies. Most recently, Dr Oz, the administrator for the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, offered to re-home the birds on his Florida ranch, a spokeswoman for the farm told CBC News. The farm rejected his proposal. Katie Pasitney, the daughter of one the farm's owners told the BBC they turned down the offer because of Canadian quarantine orders but would reconsider if it was the only way to save the ostriches. She urged President Donald Trump and Elon Musk intervene.

Court records show Universal Ostrich Farms, based in the community of Edgewood, raises the birds for their meat and eggs and for antibody research. The farm said 398 ostriches face being killed. Ms Pasitney said the birds have been kept exclusively for research since 2020. The outbreak began on the farm last December and killed about 70 ostriches over two months, according to court records.

This mass die off occurred in December and January. Many months have passed but the deaths stopped. Since that time the rest of the flock have been healthy. So an intelligent person would want to know if these rare birds built up a natural immunity to the diseases.

So if Canada agrees to allow the U.S. to take these ostriches from the Universal Ostrich Farm where could the U.S. house these birds?

If it was me, I would move them to an island that the U.S. government controls and label the island as a restricted research zone. Then let the non flying birds roam free.

I understand that Plum Island is no longer in use.

According to WikipediA, "Plum Island is an island in the town of Southold in Suffolk County, New York. The island is situated in Gardiners Bay, east of Orient Point, off the eastern end of the North Fork coast of Long Island. It is about 3 miles (4.8 km) long and 1 mile (1.6 km) wide at its widest point."

The U.S. has many remote island locations that could provide a safe area for sheltering these very rare 398 ostriches from Canada that survived H5N1.

I think I remembered something. I had to go way back to page 24 of this thread. There were at the time only two known cases of the deadly form of Bird Flu that has occurred in the North America. One was an elderly man in the U.S. and he died and the other was a young girl from Canada and she barely survived. The girl in the last video MAY BE THAT GIRL.

On page 24 of this thread on 20 Jan 2025, 11:03 AM, I wrote:

In most cases, symptoms were mild. On January 6, 2025, however, a Louisiana resident died from their infection marking the first H5N1 bird flu death of the current outbreak in the United States. The wild bird H5N1 genotype was found in both the Louisiana patient who died after exposure to a sick backyard poultry flock, and a Canadian teen who was hospitalized in November. It appears that this genotype could be more hazardous to humans and is also dangerous to other animals.

So the girl who survived the deadly form of H5N1 may be the girl in this YouTube video.

We are definitely on the cusp of another pandemic. It has been setting my anxiety and threat senses off in a big way I haven't felt since mid to late 2019. It may already well be epidemic in various parts of the world; US medical professionals and institutions are still limited with what they can report, and if you don't know what you're looking for, you won't find accurate reports, numbers and information being divulged about the newest "razor blade throat" strain, or the continuing debacle with avian influenza.

One of my go to phrases at the moment is "nothing exists in a vacuum", and while I'm reading and posting in these forums, you'll probably see me reiterate and emphasise phenomenon such as cascade failure and positive feedback loops. I may be overthinking these things, but any time I've been reading books and watching studies and documentaries into the related subjects, my concerns are being validated by the evidence and repeating patterns emerging, so if you feel bad about others dismissing you as being pessimistic or worrying too much, try not to be. You are simply reacting to things that should be taken more seriously.

Editing here: One key factor that has a force multiplying effect for the spread of disease, especially respiratory illnesses, is climate change. 5 years may not be a long period of time, but that's consistent record breaking climate change related events and temperatures year on year, and virtually anybody with an interest or who works in meteorology and related fields will tell you that there is a compounding effect building up the entire time, causing more systemic cascading failure related incidents.

The best possible thing we can for ourselves and for others is to be prepared. Keep up vigilant hygiene practices, wear a mask if you can, encourage others to as well but don't push it on them as they're scared and worried deep down just like we are, and do what you can to improve air filtration and quality around you at home, school, work, wherever.

Yep. But that doesn't tell you anything.

What is important is that it was the site of a major veterinary facility with limited access for doing veterinary research on some of the diseases that were most easily spread if the animal subjects were to escape. The idea was that if the animals escaped the facility and tried to swim across to the mainland, they would most likely drown before they got there.

For example, if I remember correctly, it used to be the only place in the US for doing research on things like Hoof and Mouth Disease.

Nobody lived there. All employees would travel back and forth to the island by a very restricted ferry boat.

For bird flu, it would have additional problems in that wild birds could visit the site and carry bird flu to the mainland. So it would hardly fix the problem. Not only that, the farmer would have to pay for the care and feeding of the ostriches and that would get real expensive.

Like it or not, if bird flu is found in a pen of domesticated birds, there is good reason to cull all the birds to try to limit the spread.

By the way, the owners have turned down an offer of assistance to move the ostriches.

From https://www.ctvnews.ca/vancouver/article/dr-oz-offers-to-relocate-bc-ostriches-facing-cull-but-owners-decline-help/:

I wouldn't think that the birds would even be allowed to be brought into the US. Someone should not be able to skirt the rules simply because they have political pull.

Talking about Plum Island, it might be a good location primarily because ostriches are a bird that doesn't fly.

I would probably be inclined to pick an area that is a little more distant from a major population center. A little extra caution is good.

The Canadian government has said, “Research documentation was not provided during the review of their request for exemption from the disposal order based on unique genetics or during the judicial review process. Further, the current physical facilities at their location are not suitable for controlled research activities or trials.”

Source: Ostriches at B.C. farm have version of avian flu not seen elsewhere in Canada: CFIA

If that is the case, I think the U.S. government could find an appropriate location to conduct research studies of this very deadly form of H5N1 in non-flying ostriches. We could provide a suitable location for controlled research activities or trials.

Another recent article discusses a joint U.S. and Canadian approach to creating a pathway to halting the growing H5N1 multi-species pandemic.

Source: Moderna loses $700M for mRNA avian flu vaccine as U.S. eyes Canadian ostriches for alternative

Co-owner of the Edgewood farm (Universal Ostrich Farm near Edgewood, B.C.), Dave Bilinski, is unsurprised by the U.S. government's decision to pull the plug on Moderna’s mRNA avian flu research while exploring alternatives like his farm’s natural antibody production.

“We’re not relying on the antibodies being produced in a lab in this case,” he said. “We have a natural solution, and the research we’re doing is finding the best way to use the antibodies for natural healthy diagnostics, therapeutics, and filters.”

“Regarding the H5N1 strain that visited his farm," Bilinski says, “it was delivered here naturally. And if the migratory birds visit us again and give us a new variant of the avian flu, because they already have the previous antibodies, the birds won’t get sick. Their antibodies will naturally evolve to that variant.”

“It’s like a natural booster,” he added, before stating, "The stamping out policy is not working and has not been working."

Note that the article said that those ostriches are the only animals in Canada known to have that strain. It went on to say that the strain was seen elsewhere. It is quite possible that studying the ostriches will not tell us much we don't already know. In the meantime, there is a potential for those ostriches to spread the strain elsewhere since some of the ostriches having it does not mean that all of the ostriches had it.

The family that operates a British Columbia ostrich farm facing a federal cull says it may look into the process of moving the birds to the United States as a “last resort.”

Katie Pasitney, whose parents own Universal Ostrich Farm in Edgewood, B.C., says the family is also urging the Canadian Food Inspection Agency to consider the proposals by U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to save the ostriches for research rather than culling them.

Source: B.C. ostrich farm facing cull ponders moving birds to U.S. as ‘last resort’

She says the family is open to starting the process of testing the birds to see if relocation is possible “as a last resort.”

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Source: How the fate of a herd of ostriches on a small B.C. farm caught the attention of the Trump administration

Edgewood, B.C. isn't usually the sort of place that would be on the radar of high-ranking White House officials.

On the west shore of Lower Arrow Lake and surrounded by the Monashee Mountains, it's a roughly 200-kilometre drive from Kelowna, B.C., on a winding road. An unincorporated community, the latest census put it at a population of 235 people working in farming, forestry and tourism.

But since December 2024, it's been making international headlines over the fate of a group of ostriches living on one particular farm near the end of a rural road: Universal Ostrich, owned by Karen Espersen and Dave Bilinski and whose spokesperson is Katie Pasitney, Espersen's daughter.

In December, Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) officials were tipped off that some of the large birds on the farm had died, with tests confirming the presence of avian flu. That resulted in a cull order, which the farm has fought, picking up high-profile allies along the way and a court ruling allowing the cull to move forward.

Among the farm's supporters are U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., former TV host and current administrator for the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Dr. Mehmet Oz, and U.S. billionaire John Catsimatidis, all of whom who have now publicly urged Canadian officials to allow the ostriches to live.

The article then goes on to say:

The first human case of H5N1 contracted in Canada was reported in B.C. in November 2024.

This Canadian girl was the first person in Canada to contract the deadly strain of H5N1. She barely survived and even to this day is working hard to recover. And if I am correct, it seems the media has missed the point, that this lone Canadian survivor was at this Universal Ostrich farm asking the Canadian government to allow these animals to live. I even showed the video of the girl here on this site.

Herd Immunity

'Herd immunity', also known as 'population immunity', is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection.

In a way, I developed herd immunity to COVID. I was exposed to almost every version of COVID but I never got the disease. This is despite the fact that I was exposed continuously to the disease. It wasn't that I was immune from COVID. It was that I knew how to protect myself. So during 2020 before there was a vaccine, I was up and about, living my normal life, but I implemented safeguards to protect me from getting the disease. The three variables that I had to control were - indoor humidity levels, air purification, safe distance. The main reason why so many people became infected, some were infected multiple times, was that they picked the safe distance out of thin air. They said 3 feet or 6 feet, where early data available by the end of March 2020 showed the actual number was 50 feet. The main reason why so many people became infected is because they were lied to.

Now we are at the cusp of another pandemic. This one is far, far worse then COVID. This one is H5N1 which will transition into H1N1. It has the potential to kill a hundred times more people then COVID ever did. And it is fast, very fast. Once you begin to show symptoms within 24 hours a person can reach the point of no return, where death is at the doorstep.

Whereas H1N5 primarily effects the elderly and those with preexisting medical conditions or those whose bodies are being treated with radiation theory,
H1N1 strikes the teenagers and healthy adults. This is most of the population. And past experience from the pandemic of 1918 shows how quickly the spread takes place.

So if I am able to avoid getting COVID along with my family and their families by limiting my exposure, then perhaps it is possible to apply the same approach to H5N1/H1N1. But this is a very different disease and a very different set of controls are required.

The reason why the ostrich in Canada have survived H5N1 is because they became infected but survived. They have herd immunity. Their bodies developed this immunity by surviving a very limited exposure. If we can explore these birds, we can learn how to protect ourselves before the next extremely deadly plague, H1N1, grips the world in chaos.