Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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13 Mar 2020, 7:29 am

I was discussing with my Asian friends on why all East Asian countries have been successful in containment, while all European countries have failed. Many told me: that's because the West places too much weight on personal freedom. Another one agreed and said: "Yes, when people are free, the virus is free, too." One more then said: "Not just Europe, the US, too."

This message is trending: https://www.facebook.com/cristina.higgins.7/posts/10157623212885189

Quote:

If you are in Europe or the US you are weeks away from where we are today in Italy.

I can hear you now. “It’s just a flu. It only affects old people with preconditions”

...

Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. ... What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left?

On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse.

There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there?

And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients – 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment.

This is a picture from one of the least developed countries in East Asia: Vietnam:

Vietnam is next door to China. Sure, the weather there helps, but look at its school children, too. In contrast, a Swiss congresswoman was kick out of the National Council for wearing a mask. Is there then any surprise that in the top ten list of countries (by number of cases), 7 of them are Western countries, including the USA and Switzerland?

https://www.bluewin.ch/fr/infos/suisse/le-masque-de-magdalena-martullo-blocher-363668.html

Sweden and UK both have announced they don't have enough test kits, so they will stop testing people with mild symptoms. In contrast, in Taiwan, per each confirmed case, 400 sample tests have been conducted. That means about 130 more people are tested per each confirmed case. In Taiwan, every single confirmed case has been treated in a negative-pressure isolation room. In Taiwan, not one school has been shut down. People go about their lives as usual. In Italy, people are now treated in hallways, the entire country has been locked down. Negative-pressure isolation room sounds like a utopia. Despite all its advanced technologies, the West has been brought to its knees. Why?

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Last edited by eikonabridge on 13 Mar 2020, 7:47 am, edited 4 times in total.

Sahn
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13 Mar 2020, 7:31 am

ouinon2 wrote:

There has just today been a change in the percentage of people dying relative to the numbers of recovered.

For several weeks now the percentage of people who had recovered from the virus has been 94%, and the percentage of dead has been a consistent 6%.

Now the number of cases which have had an outcome is 73,862

But only 93%, 68,898, of them have recovered/been discharged, ....

and 7%, 4,964, have now ended in death.

Is that the death rate for people admitted to hospital in a critical condition or the overall death rate?

jimmy m
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13 Mar 2020, 7:32 am

Kiprobalhato wrote:

"social distancing" at a time in your life when what you really want to do is get out of your shell and meet others.

lovely -- my life was rigged against me from the start.

This is the time for social distancing. But it will come to an end soon as the number of cases level off and decline. Probably less than 2 months. And then you can return to exercising and build your social skills.

I read an article today. Some people have a very mean evil streak. So Beware!

---------------

A Japanese woman tested positive for coronavirus earlier this week just days after being at the same pub as an infected man who told officials he wanted to “spread the virus,” according to a report.

The man, in his 50s, ignored authorities’ orders to self-quarantine after he tested positive on March 4, just hours before he came into contact with the woman in Aichi Prefecture, around 200 miles southwest of Tokyo, Kyodo News in Japan reported.

The woman, in her 30s, developed a fever four days later and now has a sore throat. Officials in Toyota in Aichi Prefecture said her condition isn’t serious but she is scheduled to be hospitalized. She lives with her family in the area.

The man reportedly went to two bars that night but only told one employee at the second location that he had the virus. The karaoke bar reported him to the police and a health care center. Police arrived in protective gear and the bar was disinfected. Officials are trying to identify who had contact with the man that night.

As of Friday there were 111 cases of coronavirus in Aichi, the second-highest number of any prefecture in Japan, Kyodo News reported.

Source: Japanese woman contracts coronavirus after contact with man who wanted to 'spread' it: report

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kraftiekortie
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13 Mar 2020, 7:47 am

In NYC:

Traffic is normal rush hour.

Trains from Queens and outer boroughs: normal rush-hour crowding.

Slightly less crowded within Manhattan.

Public schools open except isolated schools with a confirmed case of COVID-19.

Buffets still operating. Certain stores very crowded with people doing emergency shopping.

Less than 1% wear masks.

Events with crowds of over 500 banned.

Broadway closed.

Municipal services fully operational. All stores open.

Seems like a normal Friday for the most part.

eikonabridge
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13 Mar 2020, 7:51 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

In NYC:
Traffic is normal rush hour.
...
Municipal services fully operational. All stores open.
Seems like a normal Friday for the most part.

Are you continuing with your "Not One Single Confirmed Case in NYC, which has Five Chinatowns"?

Some people just never learns, sigh...

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eikonabridge
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13 Mar 2020, 7:59 am

eikonabridge wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

In NYC:
Traffic is normal rush hour.
...
Municipal services fully operational. All stores open.
Seems like a normal Friday for the most part.

Are you continuing with your "Not One Single Confirmed Case in NYC, which has Five Chinatowns"?

Some people just never learns, sigh...

The thing is, with that kind of comment, what you lose is credibility. And when a country doesn't have credibility as a deterrence, we all know what happens next. The West has now shown how vulnerable it is to a virus attack.

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eikonabridge
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13 Mar 2020, 8:42 am

Case #50 in Taiwan just happened. And there is no surprise that it was an American (working in Taiwan). The patient recently had 4 other Americans (two couples) as visitors, coming from the USA. Those visitors have since returned to the USA. One is now a confirmed case, another couple have confirmed cases in immediate families in the USA.

Yep, the onslaught of the second wave is happening. And this time it is coming from Europe and the USA. Israel has been polite to quarantine all arriving passengers, but the real target is actually people coming from the USA.

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kraftiekortie
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13 Mar 2020, 8:55 am

What are you talking about, Eikonabridge? Stop with the abusive posts towards me. YOU lack credibility when you just make negative comments. If we were in a situation where we'd have to work together, I wouldn't want to work with you unless you change your attitude.

If you want credibility, you have to show that you are willing to work with people, rather than just dismiss them out of hand. That's a part of intelligence----the ability to convey knowledge in a way in which the recipient benefits. Otherwise, you are just blowing hot air.

You made some points about the spread of the Coronavirus. Much of that has come true, unfortunately.

I'm talking about what's actually going on in NYC. Drastic things are occurring, especially as to events which require crowds of more than 250-500 people. Broadway is closed. Many events are canceled---like the St Patrick's Day Parade. I am acutely aware of what is going on here. There could be more closures as this Coronavirus thing proceeds. What I'm talking about is the situation NOW.

But, the reality is: people are just going about their lives, but with a little more caution. They have to. Otherwise, they'll get no income, they'll fall behind in their bills, they'll just become apathetic and give up.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 13 Mar 2020, 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

ouinon2
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13 Mar 2020, 8:57 am

domineekee wrote:

ouinon2 wrote:

Is that the death rate for people admitted to hospital in a critical condition or the overall death rate?

That is the number and percentage of deaths out of all confirmed/officially diagnosed cases for which there has been an outcome.

( The percentage of deaths out of just the critically ill would of course be a much much higher figure, perhaps over 30%, because for weeks now the average percentage of people on the severely/critical illness list has been below 20% of the total cases, ( and is now at just 10%). )

Last edited by ouinon2 on 13 Mar 2020, 9:16 am, edited 2 times in total.

kraftiekortie
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13 Mar 2020, 9:00 am

Any time one is critically ill, this one stands a much better chance of death than someone in stable condition.

QuantumChemist
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13 Mar 2020, 9:33 am

My university is in the process of going totally online in a very short period of time. It can be done with lecture classes, but chemistry labs are much harder to do correctly. I am a bit stressed out over the amount of work that has to be done before each “experiment” online. The learning is just not the same as a real hands-on lab session. I feel guilty that this happened this way, as we are not giving the students fully what they paid for. It just feels dirty to me.

One thing I do fear is that the administration will think that the university should stay as an online only existence. If that does happen, I predict that many professors will leave the profession entirely. Maybe this will jump start the building of a teaching college without administration that can function for the students, instead of a bottom line.

Last edited by QuantumChemist on 13 Mar 2020, 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

ouinon2
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13 Mar 2020, 9:35 am

ouinon2 wrote:

Kiprobalhato wrote:

ouinon2 wrote:

There has just today been a change in the percentage of people dying relative to the numbers of recovered. For several weeks now the percentage of people who had recovered from the virus has been 94%, and the percentage of dead has been a consistent 6%.

Now the number of cases which have had an outcome is 73,862, but only 93%, 68,898, of them have recovered/been discharged .... and 7%, 4,964, have now ended in death.

Do you think that is because of its spread in areas with higher populations of elderly (like italy, the west) or because...people are getting reinfected and it is killing them the second time around? Keep us posted

I don't know. But this amazing and brilliant blog post on Medium, which presents the data and a hopefully galvanising comprehensive analysis of the situation, might be helpful!! !

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

The take home message is "Act now!". Self-isolate or enable/encourage/impose serious social distancing NOW!

The opening paragraphs from this thoughtful, very well researched and illustrated piece;

Tomas_Pueyo wrote:

With everything that’s happening about the Coronavirus, it might be very hard to make a decision of what to do today. Should you wait for more information? Do something today? What?

Here’s what I’m going to cover in this article, with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:

How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area?
What will happen when these cases materialize?
What should you do?
When?

When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:

The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.

As a politician, community leader or business leader, you have the power and the responsibility to prevent this.

You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won’t it be better to wait for others to take steps first? .... But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.

Another take home from the blog is that every day matters, every little reduction in social contact/exposure by every single person matters, may make a difference to thousands, because the virus' spread and effects are exponential. Our every individual action matters, because further along/up the exponential line it may mean significantly less load or exposure or more protection for someone old/weak/ill/poor/unable to self-isolate.

So today for the first time in my whole life I washed my hands immediately on getting back from shopping for essentials, and I'm going to carry on only going out for the absolute essentials, once a week or so, when can, which have been doing for a while now, because I'm lucky enough to be able to self-isolate like this.

Last edited by ouinon2 on 13 Mar 2020, 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

IsabellaLinton
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13 Mar 2020, 9:40 am

ouinon2 wrote:

Our every individual action matters, because further along/up the exponential line it may mean significantly less load or exposure or more protection for someone old/weak/ill/poor/unable to self-isolate.

Exactly. We need to protect those who can't protect themselves. Every precaution counts.

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13 Mar 2020, 9:54 am

QuantumChemist wrote:

If a freshman chemistry student performs a lab experiment as predicted, the blast should be evident all across an area the size of Los Angeles with no need for even a camera.

ouinon2
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13 Mar 2020, 10:00 am

ouinon2 wrote:

An amazing and brilliant blog post, which presents the data and a hopefully galvanising comprehensive analysis of the situation ...

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

The take home message is "Act now!". Self-isolate or enable/encourage/impose serious social distancing NOW!

The opening paragraph from this thoughtful, very well researched and illustrated piece;

Tomas_Pueyo wrote:

With everything that’s happening about the Coronavirus, it might be very hard to make a decision of what to do today. Should you wait for more information? Do something today? What?

Here’s what I’m going to cover in this article, with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:

How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area?
What will happen when these cases materialize?
What should you do?
When?

When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:

The coronavirus is coming to you.
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways.
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies.
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today.
That means keeping as many people home as possible, starting now.

... .... You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won’t it be better to wait for others to take steps first?

The section on how to estimate actual/"true" case numbers is very good, but the next section, on death/fatality rates, is particularly interesting. A small quote from that :

Tomas_Pueyo wrote:

This is what you can conclude:

Countries that are *prepared* will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).

Countries that are *overwhelmed* [ unprepared ] will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the [ number of ] cases overall.

This virus has no fixed inherent predetermined unavoidable fatality rate. It may kill as relatively few as 0.5% to 0.9% of infected, still more than annual flu, or it may kill as many as 5%, like the Spanish flu, or worse. It depends entirely on how countries and societies react. And, as Pueyo's figures show very clearly, the west generally is not doing very well ( so far ).

Social distancing, as much as one can manage, seems to be something that every person can do without waiting for governments to tell them. And spreading the word, sharing the data, so that others distance themselves too. And doing everything one can to help others, weaker/older etc, to self-isolate. And handwashing.

And hope that governments do the right thing by the old ill weaker people and decide to guarantee sick pay/paid leave to all, whether gig workers, the self-employed, people working in retail and the food industries, plus free child care to all parents working in the front line health and care services, ( as Belgium has just done ).

Last edited by ouinon2 on 13 Mar 2020, 10:26 am, edited 2 times in total.

kraftiekortie
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13 Mar 2020, 10:21 am

I've seen fatality rates of below 0.1% for "regular" flu.

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