Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

Post Reply New Topic

Some people in Baton Rouge are acting like a major hurricane is about to hit us. Went to the grocery store last night to get things after hearing there was an out the door line at a Sam's Club, and there was a guy loading the bed of his truck down with cases of water.

I think that the hurricane preparation mentality is everywhere, not just along the coastal areas.

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/1 ... =emaildkre

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/1 ... =emaildkre

Observations from the SARS and MERS coronavirus.
The drawdown of cases in China.
Understanding the relationship of infection rate with humidity.
Weather
Exceptional Pattern Matching Ability

Part of the problem is that we live in a country where one can get most needed things if they go to a store. That causes people to always expect that said items will be available to them at any time. But that is just not the case. My grandparents who lived through the Great Depression learned to be frugal with what they had and to always have a stockpile of supplies on hand. Some would call that hoarding, some would call it good planning.

What I hate is those who buy up the needed supplies only to make a profit off of another who needed it more. There was a story on the radio earlier this week that someone was selling cans of Lysol cleaner for $150/can over the internet. For something that is normally $3/can? I hope that the seller later needs something and they get took for a higher amount.

Situation summary @ Saturday 14 March

It spreads exponentially, which makes for some stunning growths in numbers ( see grain of rice on chess board phenomenon, one on first square, two on second, four on third ... more rice than grown in whole kingdom by last square ... ) and the frequency of doubling of fatality numbers in most European countries at the moment is around 2.5 - 3 days ...

But in the UK ( where I live, and where the Boris government has until now more or less just told people to wash their hands, not much else ) the number of deaths just doubled in under 2 days/little more than 24 hours ... as if the social distancing measures taken in other countries might actually really make a difference duh

Numbers of deaths that double just every 3 days would mean 174 million dead globally by the 3 May. And doubling every *2* days ... or 24 hours ... ... ... ! ! ? ! !

Its fatality rate seems to be significantly determined by how a country reacts to it, currently from 0.6% - 0.9% ( already much more than seasonal influenza ) in South Korea, to 2% - 3% in several European countries and the USA through to 5% in Iran and 7% in Italy.

And yet the percentage rate of deaths in cases that have had an outcome, ( which is about half of all cases so far ), is currently 7%, after standing at 6% for weeks. This is very close to the percentage of ( still active ) cases currently classed as severe/critical, which is 8% ....

... Almost as if most people that catch it badly enough to need intensive care die of it ... whatever the level of health care provision.

And it's causing stock markets to plunge and economies to teeter/topple/shake. And highlighting or exposing even more idiocies and incompetencies than usual. It's the best kind of reality TV! ... Disclaimer: I have an old parent and an existing health condition etc, so not invulnerable, nor totally uncaring.

Self-isolate, practice social distancing as much as you can. Stock up on enough protein-rich low-carb food for 2 - 3 months. And wash your hands.

Last edited by ouinon2 on 14 Mar 2020, 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Y2K was not fake news...the world really did end after the 1990s.


this is hell. right now.

Most of my predictions are fairly accurate. I correctly forecasted the intensity of the Atlantic Hurricane season in 4 out of 5 years. I do not think anyone has ever done that before.

I tried calling the CDC but don't know if the person I spoke with really grasped the subject.

Interesting. I suspect you may be right, if the majority of the world carry on behaving as they have done until now.

That's because if the number of deaths globally continues to double every 3 days there will be 174 million deaths by 3 May, and that represents 2.5% of the world's population, which is the average expected death rate, ( WHO says 3.4% and other scientists estimate between 1% - 2% ), and there would be no one else left to newly infect and kill by mid May.

That is if no more measures are taken than have on the whole been taken until now, with the exceptions of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and South Korea.

If more widespread, consistent and overarching social distancing measures were carried out, with massive lock downs, curfews, etc, then the virus might spread much much more slowly, and this could go on for somewhat longer, another couple of months perhaps until it stopped, and all cases were eradicated ( recovered/discharged or dead ), and all environments disinfected to prevent resurgence.

PS. French medics say Do NOT use anti-inflammatories like Nurofen or Ibuprofen or cortisones!! ! If you have to use painkillers choose paracetomol..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -infection

You think it's possible that Covid-19 could be eradicated?

Eradicated on what scale? I lack optimism based on a few things I see happening globally.

I think that it would, with the right actions by governments, be possible to "eradicate" all *cases* of it, through recovery by the infected ( approx 95% - 98% of them ) or death ( 2% - 5% ), *if* the simultaneous containment/social distancing, testing, contact tracing and treatment was efficient and global enough ... more or less the same way as SARS1 was "suffocated", brought under control. But I doubt that enough countries will be able to do this.

I think it's going to rage mostly unchecked, or ineffectually so, through populations, leaving a lot of dead in its wake, ( the number depending on how the health services are managing and how good the public services' "resilience" advice is, etc ), and come back 6 months later and do it again because there still won't be a vaccine and the immunity it conferred first time around will have worn off, but at least there won't be quite so many vulnerable subjects to infect ... ?

But maybe enough countries/governments and people will get enough of a grip to achieve the Wuhan success, and stop it in its tracks ... who knows!

Last edited by ouinon2 on 14 Mar 2020, 3:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.

There is a vaccine for influenza.

We're not "nutz" for taking measures to save people's lives.

Also, this thread is not about climate change, please stay on topic.

If you're going to continue mocking the pandemic, can you please post it in another thread?

Some aspies on this forum have friends or family members who are sick from the virus. Many of us are coming to this thread for useful information posted by jimmy m and others, and it would be easier to find that if we didn't have to wade through mocking/ cynical posts.

Thank you.