Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Even assuming that the government comes up with a perfect plan, that plan is worthless without the cooperation by the people of that government. Case in point, Iran has passed laws prohibiting people from licking religious shrines, yet the people value their beliefs more than they do their health and still continue to lick the shrines despite the laws passed.

Yes, I agree. Example: the Spanish gathering in Madrid parks after bars and cafes shut so that the government in Madrid has now had to shut parks too. Most countries don't seem to have the kinds of government which can effectively carry out the measures required ...

... though I've just read that they're bringing in the army/troops are being mobilised to "help with enforcement [ of the increasingly draconian lockdown ] where necessary" ....

Those are panic generated numbers and I suspect will have little basis when the final numbers are in. So I will take a Scientific Wild-Ass Guess (SWAG) on fatality figures for this pandemic. There are way too many variables for me to generate a realistic number so I can easily be off by an order of magnitude.

Lets begin by looking at SARS

The number of SARS deaths in North America (U.S. + Canada) = 43
The number of SARS deaths in China = 349
Divide these two numbers and you arrive at 12.7%

Now the number of COVID-19 deaths currently in China is 3185. The number of infections are wrapping downward. So let us estimate that the final numbers for China will be 4,000

Now the number of COVID-19 deaths currently in North America is 52. If it follows the same trajectory as SARS, North America might see 492 deaths.

Now there are many, many variables.

I believe that China acted very quickly and aggressively to this coronavirus. [That would push the North American numbers up]

The United States put up firewalls very early. These were geological firewalls. They tried to prevent the spread of the virus into the U.S.

But there is another type of firewall. I will call this a vulnerability firewall. Take the most vulnerable (mortality rate) and create a strong firewall around them. Let the coronavirus roar through the general population, but minimize the penetration into the vulnerable group. This coronavirus is attacking the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. Those are the ones that are at risk and need protection.

Typical flu symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches, runny or stuffy nose, fatigue and, sometimes, vomiting and diarrhea, according to the CDC. With COVID-19 reported symptoms in patients have varied from mild to severe, and can include fever, cough and shortness of breath. I believe that I even read that they symptoms in the young and healthy are even milder than the normal flu.

In China, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. No deaths in children under 9 have been reported. So if the same ratio holds true in North America, then you might cut the line at age 60 or perhaps age 50 and protect this group also adding in those with compromised immune systems. That would be a vulnerability firewall.

For those younger than the limit, there are precautions to take also. If they get sick, they should isolate themselves at home. Since their primary danger is contracting pneumonia, they should monitor their red blood cells oxygen levels using an oximeter. If it falls below a set number, perhaps 90%, they should immediately be admitted to the hospital for treatment.

Are there any signs that this vulnerability firewall may be taking shape? I think so. The VA has taken steps to restrict visitors to their nursing homes. Also visits to nursing homes nationwide will be temporarily restricted under the national emergency that President Donald Trump declared Friday to battle the novel coronavirus.

Passengers aboard cruise ships have been hit especially hard by this coronavirus. Most of the people who take cruises would fit the elderly category. For what I am observing, several cruise lines are temporarily halting cruises for awhile.

Maybe we just need to set up a quarantine on 60 year olds and older (with or without symptoms) and have them shelter in place instead of the general population.

So as a SWAG on North American fatalities, I feel 500 might be a realistic number but it might be an order of magnitude off.

Last edited by jimmy m on 14 Mar 2020, 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

@ jimmy_m. ... The number of deaths in Italy have been doubling every 2.5-3 days, and now stand at nearly 1500. They started with just 1 on the 21st February, just over 3 weeks ago. The growth rate is exponential. Nothing that they have done seems to have slowed it significantly. I don't understand why you think that the USA will escape this kind of progression. ? .... ie. nearly 5,000 dead in the USA by the 4 April, for example. Or if slightly slower, because less densely populated, doubling every 4 days, which would be 5,000 by the 11th April ... ... and 10,000 dead ( this in the USA alone ) by the 15th April.

In my humble opinion the coronavirus penetrated the geological firewall of Italy awhile ago. They had many infections and many deaths attributed to the normal flu before they became aware of the problem. Now there is a surge and the numbers are playing catch up. They are implementing mitigation strategies and I expect their numbers will begin to level off shortly. Italy also has a much larger portion of their population in the vulnerability group.

The United States is in a similar situation in that our test kits were not available. Our infections number will show a steep rise over the next few weeks. We basically had major infected hot spots and didn't really know it. Now our infection numbers will begin to match reality.

I hope you are right.

But the doubling frequency, ( I've just rechecked it ), has varied between 3 days and 6 days since the first US death on 29 February, and been more and more steadily at 4 days. And according to many various epidemiologists the most likely situation is that there are already at least 10,000 cases in the USA ... as yet undetected and/or so far asymptomatic, and infecting even more people.

NB. I have remembered why SARS1 was so much easier to contain/control, it's because it was much more visible, it's symptoms much more easily identifiable, and quicker to manifest. Also very little transmission occurred before symptoms emerged.

A virologist friend of a friend described this coronavirus as the most frightening that they had seen in their working life. It's sneaky, looks relatively inoffensive, etc but!

Last edited by ouinon2 on 14 Mar 2020, 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Are virus screening clinics free in America?

I'm picturing that lots of people think they have a cold and they aren't able to afford going to a doctor to have it checked.

I hope they'd self-quarantine, but the people who can't afford doctors are likely the same people who can't afford to miss work if they think they just have a cough.

I have heard of the possibility of drive through testing sites for free on covid-19. But I have also heard on the local news in my area that testing is a run around with a lot of finger pointing to being someone else's job.

But, is it free?

I am pretty sure the proposed drive through testing is free, but not certain. I do know however that it is free to listen to local health officials say "That's not my job, you need to ask this other guy across town from me."

The numbers in America are rising fast as well. It's 2726 cases already. Neither the USA nor Europe are like China where you can tell all people to stay at home for several weeks. I guess most people on this planet will get the virus either and about 1 percent will die.
I'm afraid that my parents will get it and not survive that sh*t ...

Last edited by quite an extreme on 14 Mar 2020, 6:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Well, I have a sore throat and a raging headache. I've been taking my temperature regularly and I have no fever thankfully. Think it's just a cold, but I'm gonna work from home next week just in case.

I've had to cancel my Holiday as well. The country I was going to has closed all public places. I managed to get a refund for my excursions and accommodation. Hoping the airline cancels my flight and I can get a refund.

Thought this video was very informative

Here's a recipe for home made sanitizer

https://www.wired.com/story/how-to-make-hand-sanitizer/

Mix 3 parts isopropyl alcohol to 1 part aloe vera gel. Add a few drops of tea tree oil

Also .75 rubbing alcohol, .25 distilled water, and 20 drops of Thieves essential oil (a recipe since the middle ages)




It's far more effective than commercial sanitisers and you can mix it into your own spray bottle. It will last forever.

I have it in my handbag and at my front door. You can spray surfaces, spray your hands, or even put it in a diffuser for the room. It will kill any germ and also rid the dead germs from your hands (Purell doesn't rid them).

You won't even feel it on your hands because it's not sticky and gross like the other products. It's a light mist.

And yet there are still hundreds of thousands of deaths due to influenza even though there is a vaccine.



Straw man argument. I never said measures shouldn't be taken.
I myself have been taking precaution. You would have seen that if you have been following my posts.

I am saying that the panic in evidence, through such things as toilet paper hoarding is nutz, and I will reiterate:
Some people are acting in a hysterical way about the coronavirus but seem to ignore the influenza virus.
I.E. Selective hysteria.



The same psychological mechanism involved in the hysteria of coronavirus can be seen in other areas.


I am not mocking the pandemic.
I am pointing out how irrational some people have become.



Personally, I think that being hysterical is not a good thing.
I am happy to point that out.

Some people ignore my posts.
The best way to manage this situation, if you don't like my contribution is:
Go to: "My accounts"
Select: "Friends & Foes"
Select: "Manage foes"
Add my handle to the "foe" list.