Sweden the only country with Correct Approach to CVD-19

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cyberdad
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04 Jul 2020, 12:52 am

goldfish21 wrote:

I still don’t think almost anyone else is going to agree that this is the best option. Or they’d be doing it instead of trying to avoid getting the virus while treatments/vaccines are developed.

goldfish21
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04 Jul 2020, 1:16 am

We know there’s no guarantee. But that doesn’t mean we should just give up hope and say f**k it and get sick w/ a chance of dying or having lifelong health issues with multiple organs. Most people are still going to agree that it’s way better to avoid getting it at all.

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kraftiekortie
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04 Jul 2020, 1:19 am

COVID is not chickenpox.

ASPartOfMe
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04 Jul 2020, 6:18 am

Sweden's prime minister orders an inquiry into the failure of the country's no-lockdown coronavirus strategy

Quote:

Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.

"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.

"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."

Unlike most other European countries, including its closest neighbours, Sweden did not implement strict, wholesale lockdown measures in response to the pandemic. Instead, the country has largely allowed businesses and hospitality to remain open and students to attend school.

In May, Sweden's state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, justified this response by saying that countries that imposed strict lockdowns would likely suffer large second waves later in the year, whereas Sweden's would be smaller.

"In the autumn there will be a second wave," Tegnell told the Financial Times. "Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low."

However, the strategy appears to have failed, with recent data suggesting the virus has spread faster in Sweden since Tegnell's remarks two months ago, while failing to stimulate sufficient antibodies in the community to prevent a second wave.

A study published in May suggested that a small number of people in Stockholm, 7.3%, had developed coronavirus antibodies, casting doubt over whether Sweden could achieve herd immunity in the near future.

Sweden's capital Stockholm has also failed to avert the same sort of economic downturn seen in other parts of Europe.

The country has in the last week recorded daily new cases of well over 1,000, up from fewer than 500 in mid-May.

5,370 people in Sweden had died after testing positive for the COVID-19 virus as of Thursday morning, putting it among the worst-affected countries in the world in terms of deaths per capita. Meanwhile, its Scandinavian neighbours have recorded much fewer deaths. Denmark has the second-highest death toll in the region with just 606 fatalities as of this morning.

As well as opting against a strict lockdown, Sweden has taken a more relaxed approach to testing than most other countries, focusing mainly on healthcare workers and people who are hospitalized and not the wider population.

The inquiry announced by Lofven will first consider why approximately half of Sweden's deaths have taken place in its care homes, The Times of London reported.

"We did not manage to protect the most vulnerable, the elderly, despite our best intentions," the prime minister said.

The Swedish government has previously said it is not aiming only for herd immunity, in which 60% of a population catches the virus, but that it could slow the spread of the virus enough to ensure that the capacity of its health service is not breached.

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goldfish21
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04 Jul 2020, 9:53 am

^see, cyberdad, I told ya a better metric was people not dying.

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PhosphorusDecree
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04 Jul 2020, 10:49 am

I'm more interested in what a) South Korea and b) Greece did. South Korea because they contained the disease well despite been a very densely populated country and having very little warning; Greece because they achieved a very low death toll despite an under-funded health service and an extremely high number of people crossing the borders. Both countries are far closer to returning to normal than the UK or USA.

Both acted very promptly, which the UK and USA definitely did not. Which is a useful lesson, but only for next time. South Korea didn't actually have much of a "lockdown," beyond closing schools and other high-risk areas. Instead, they had an aggressive program of testing and contact-tracing in the general population, which was already up to 20,000 tests a day in early March- exactly the time when the UK government decided not to bother testing except in hospital intensive care units. The track-and trace program is working, full stop. They have now carried out around 1.25 million tests. Latest statistics I could find: 12,800 cases, 282 deaths.

Greece, meanwhile, took the disease seriously because they knew their healthcare infrastructure couldn't cope with a major outbreak. They closed down public events in February, long before their first death. They then closed down schools and restaurants, and started full lockdown on March 23. This is the same day as the UK, but here, schools were open and major public events still on right up until that date. By that point, there had been 15 deaths in Greece but more than 300 in the UK. 3486 cases, 192 deaths in Greece so far.

For comparison,
UK: 284276 cases, 44131 deaths.
657.7 deaths per one million population.
Sweden: 71419 cases, 5420 deaths
523.71 deaths per one million population.
USA: 2,903,991cases, 132,145 deaths
388.93 deaths per one million population.
Greece: 3486 cases, 192 deaths.
17.9 deaths per one million population.
South Korea: 12,800 cases, 282 deaths.
5.46 deaths per one million population.

Yes, the death toll in the UK is more than one hundred times as bad as in South Korea. Sweden is not much better.

(edited for clarity)

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cyberdad
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04 Jul 2020, 8:47 pm

I am only vindicated in that I have an Oxford professor who agrees that Sweden's approach seems to have the best long term outcome, For countries that don't have herd immunity each time they ease restrictions they kill people and go back to lockdown. This is slowly strangling their economy.

All this lockdown pivots on a vaccine or effective treatment neither of which is yet on the horizon.

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04 Jul 2020, 9:35 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:

COVID is not chickenpox.

It's not the black death either.
The steps we take to fight a disease, must not be more harmful than the disease itself.

SpiceWolf
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04 Jul 2020, 10:10 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:

In May, Sweden's state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, justified this response by saying that countries that imposed strict lockdowns would likely suffer large second waves later in the year, whereas Sweden's would be smaller.

"In the autumn there will be a second wave," Tegnell told the Financial Times. "Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low."

However, the strategy appears to have failed, with recent data suggesting the virus has spread faster in Sweden since Tegnell's remarks two months ago, while failing to stimulate sufficient antibodies in the community to prevent a second wave.

That is based on a misunderstanding.
The Karolinska institute has found that most people seem to form T-cell mediated immunity to COVID, rather than B-cell mediated immunity.

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19 ... have-shown
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200 ... ID-19.aspx
and
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 9.174888v1
For people with a health/science background.

goldfish21
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05 Jul 2020, 12:22 am

SpiceWolf wrote:

ASPartOfMe wrote:

That is based on a misunderstanding.
The Karolinska institute has found that most people seem to form T-cell mediated immunity to COVID, rather than B-cell mediated immunity.

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19 ... have-shown
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200 ... ID-19.aspx
and
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 9.174888v1
For people with a health/science background.

What does this mean and what are the implications of it? Does it mean we Can or Cannot likely develop herd immunity either by exposure or vaccine?

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SpiceWolf
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05 Jul 2020, 5:19 am

Still working through it myself, but, in a nutshell.

The Good.

Immunity?
This is very good news, it means many more people are immune than we previously thought.
What is especially good news is that you can get immunity without getting sick, asymptomatic immunity is occurring.
It means Herd immunity will eventually win even if we are unable to stop the virus by other means.

It also means that the reports that only a few people developed lasting immunity were wrong.

The Bad.
Vaccine?
As far as I know, most vaccines are based around Antibody production (B cell mediated immunity).

The Ugly.
I have no idea how this will effect antibody based tests.
Without knowing specifically how the tests work, I can't tell how bad this news is for testing.

kraftiekortie
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05 Jul 2020, 6:40 am

What is the name of the immunity to measles after one case of it

What is the name of the partial immunity to flu strains after exposure?

I believe COVID 19 is more the latter than the former. I hope it’s a strong form of the latter.

goldfish21
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05 Jul 2020, 2:40 pm

SpiceWolf wrote:

Interesting. Makes me wonder if any T-cell mediated vaccines exist Or if it’s possible to create one.

I suppose the small bright side of this info is that there may eventually be herd immunity after many years of this virus cycling through the population.. but like everyone else I’d much prefer a faster better solution. *fingers crossed*

Def appreciate any further info & updates you come across.

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SpiceWolf
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05 Jul 2020, 11:58 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:

What is the name of the immunity to measles after one case of it

That's called "IgG immunity" or sometimes "persistent immunity".
It's a subset of B cell mediated immunity which is itself a subset of adaptive immunity.

The body produces two main types of antibody(and a host of niche function ones)
The two main types are IgG and IgM.

IgM are the antibodies that are produced while you have an active viral infection.
They are designed to be force multipliers and have 10 binding sites so they are basically virus inactivating sponges. But they only have a lifespan of a few weeks to a few months.

IgG are the same antibodies, but designed to be small, very durable and very cheap for the body to make.
But they only have two binding sites, so they aren't super good at mopping up virus, but their job isn't to do that, it's to just sit around waiting for a virus to mistake it for a cell.
At that point, the IgG antibody flags down the nearest white cell and says "Weeee've gotta prooooblem, look what I caught!! !!"

So IgM are the warfighting antibodies, and IgG are the long term "sentinel" antibodies.

Last edited by SpiceWolf on 06 Jul 2020, 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

SpiceWolf
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06 Jul 2020, 12:02 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

What is the name of the partial immunity to flu strains after exposure?

As I understand it, that's a common misconception.
To the best of my knowledge immunity to influenza is as persistent as other types of diseases.

It's not that the human body forgets what influenza looks like, rather it's that Influenza regularly changes it's face over time, so that it no longer matches the bodies "mugshots".

SpiceWolf
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06 Jul 2020, 12:20 am

goldfish21 wrote:

Interesting. Makes me wonder if any T-cell mediated vaccines exist Or if it’s possible to create one.

I'm aware of a few T cell based vaccines but they are for completely different kinds of diseases.(i.e non-viral diseases)
I'm sure that it's "laws of physics" possible to make one, but I would not expect it to happen quickly.

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