Tropical system Michael
ASPartOfMe
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Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL142018
623 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 /523 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/
This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
**HURRICANE MICHAEL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. THIS WILL BE AN
UNPRECEDENTED EVENT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.**
Hurricane Michael is now a category 4 hurricane! Catastrophic storm
surge and winds are expected today. Michael is expected to make
landfall as a category 4 along the Florida Panhandle Coast or Big Bend
late this morning or early afternoon. This is an unprecedented event
as there are no Category 4 storms on record to have made landfall
along the Florida Panhandle coast. There is an increasing threat for
tornadoes this morning as rain bands are already moving onshore.
Michael is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge, widespread
power outages that will last days to even more than a week in some
areas, downed trees that will block access to roads and endanger
individuals, structural damage to homes and businesses, isolated flash
flooding and the potential for tornadoes. Trees falling on homes will
become a dangerous and potentially deadly situation. The time for
preparations is quickly ending.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastline. These impacts include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.
* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW Georgia and SE Alabama.
Remain well sheltered from life-threatening wind having devastating
impacts. These impacts include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW Georgia and SE Alabama.
If realized, these impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
* TORNADOES:
Potential for tornadoes across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend and SW
Georgia. Remain well braced against a dangerous tornado event having
significant impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions and
evacuations. Conditions will deteriorate this morning and the time
to evacuate is quickly ending. Remain in a safe place and do not
return until county officials say it is safe.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.
Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.
If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.
If an Extreme Wind Warning is issued for your area, move to the
safest place within your shelter. Take the same life-saving actions
as if it were a violent tornado.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
This is an extremely dangerous hurricane. It is a Cat 4 hurricane, with winds of 145 mph and is producing 31-foot waves out at sea. It is estimated this will be the most powerful storm to hit the Florida Panhandle in 100 years. So if you are in the affected area give very, very serious consideration to evacuating the area before this one hits.
If you don't, then make sure your have several days of food and water. Make sure your cell phones are fully charged. Use the 9-1-1 phone calls are for dire emergencies only. Be prepared for power and communication outages. Generally text messages can get out when voice communications are overloaded on cell phones. This is the Big One.
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A very unique plan. As Dr. Paul Thompson wrote, "This is the very best paper on the virus I have ever seen."
ASPartOfMe
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1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge
is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base
and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible.
2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage
where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the
Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and
Panama City.
3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland
later today and this evening.
4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.
5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.
People in the path of the eye of Hurricane Michael should expect tornado-like conditions.
As of 11:00 AM ET/10:00 AM CT, the center of Hurricane Michael was located 60 miles south-southwest of Panama City, moving north at 15 mph. Top winds were 145 mph. The pressure is dropping indicating that it could get stronger.
Everyone in the storm’s path must take every precaution possible, including getting mattresses off the beds and turning an interior closet or hallway into a bunker with as much shelter as possible. Take everything you need into the bunker including chairs, blankets, rain gear, flashlights, batteries, phones and chargers, food, water, etc. There will come a time this afternoon that it will not be safe to leave the bunker. Use the mattresses to block doorways to exterior rooms.
Michael will make landfall over or near Panama City this afternoon. Destructive winds will impact most of the Panama City area, and only slowly wind down as it heads across the Panhandle into southern Georgia. Hurricane force winds will extend more than 100 miles inland. Winds will continue to be strong enough to damage buildings, bring down trees, and knock out power as Michael speeds across the Georgia into the Carolinas.
Water is rising and covering coastal roads in Apalachicola and areas east of Panama City. Near total destruction is anticipated on the coast east of Panama City Beach around the Big Bend in the Florida coastline as the water is pushed 10 to 15 feet over normally dry land and 10 to 20 miles inland. On Panama City Beach and west to about Destin, Gulf water 6-9 feet above the normal high-tide level will push in. The storm surge along this entire coastline will be unsurvivable. It is critical to get away from any body of water. Even inland bays.
The wind will be strong enough to challenge even the strongest building in the corridor of strongest winds. Interior hallways, small bathrooms, closets, and under stairwells are normally the safest places in homes. Stairwells and interior hallways on low floors, but above the water, are normally safest in high rises.
Flash flooding and tornadoes will also be a threat along the storm track.
We can only hope everyone is ready. This will likely be the worst storm people in its path will ever experience.
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
ASPartOfMe
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.41 INCHES
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
I was just watching some live coverage on ABC -- pretty nasty stuff! The weather reporter is advising people to "hunker down." Sound advice indeed! I know when they issue tornado warnings in my area, and I wonder what I should do, I immediately dismiss the idea of going out to fly a kite! I KNOW I need to hunker the f**k down!
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ASPartOfMe
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ASPartOfMe
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ASPartOfMe
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Age: 68
Gender: Male
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Location: Long Island, New York
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018
...CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest
winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the
Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-
tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight or early Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A coastal marine
observing site at Folly Island, South Carolina recently reported a
sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently observed in Charleston,
South Carolina.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck...2-4 ft
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
eastern and southeastern Georgia and South Carolina. These
conditions will spread northward across central and eastern portions
of North Carolina today.
Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic
states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
coastal southern New England. Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches
are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could
lead to life-threatening flash floods.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and
southeast Virginia.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
_________________
“Self Acceptance is a process not a performance”
“You are autistic enough. And you always have been”
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity.
ASPartOfMe
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