Biden now has 13 point lead in latest polls

Post Reply New Topic

Could??? Trump is going to eat Biden alive in a debate. Best bet for Joe is to stay in his basement until November 3rd.

LOL,Biden's foot in mouth problem can follow him anywhere,a campaign speech at any time,I'm not sure the debates will offer opportunities to mis speak that can't be found anywhere on the campaign trail.Trump is also a debate liability too,Trump has been known to say some crazy things.A Trump-Biden debate is a festivity of mis spoken words.The media being more liberal will spin Biden's gaffs more forgivingly than they will Trump's.

I'd be hesitant to read too much into these polls, as they are measuring a different area to that which they are predicting:
My understanding is that they are reporting on overall national population voting trends, yet, as demonstrated last election, the electoral college is where the decision is made, and due to the way it is arranged can be very different in the result.

While it may be a "Warning" to one side, until they can start polling on a state-by-state basis and linking this result to the probable electoral college votes, it is of limited value with regards to predictions for the next presidential election. As it is now, a "random" selection of people could easily be "influenced" by either polling on a similar ratio to population (more people from larger states), or focussing on those in major cities over rural voters. Ideally, to get a better approximation, they would poll people by state based on a multiple of the number of electoral college votes for that state, randomly distributed across the state.

There's also the fact that a number of people would be unlikely to necessarily admit to planning on voting for Trump, purely based on how Trump voters (and conservatives in general) are treated\portrayed in the media.

If Trump loses Michigan and Florida, he’s dead meat.

He’ll lose the Electoral Vote this time.

He already lost the popular vote in 2016.

He won't loose Michigan,he is still to popular among alienated whites,he could loose Florida if he is not careful.Texas is also a swing state,parts of Texas are liberal enough now that they call Texas the purple state.

Trump will likely take Ohio and Biden may get Pennsylvania.

I think it comes down to turnout and how states allow the vote. Since Trump says the pandemic is over, his followers are more likely to go to the polls and vote if their state doesn't allow mail-in voting.

There are already many polls of states. These give Biden a very comfortable lead. For example, he is more than 7% up in Michigan.

Here’s an article from last Friday:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... for-biden/

There have been more polls since then, of course, and if anything the picture has got better since then.

If the polls are overestimating Biden by 2% then he would still be on course to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, and Arizona, which puts him on course for something like a 298-240 win. Comfortable.

If the polls are underestimating him by 2%, which is just as likely, he is on course for a 412-126 landslide.

Obviously there are still months to go, but however you look at it, it looks pretty dire for Trump.

If you’re interested in this sort of thing then start reading FiveThirtyEight regularly, their coverage is amazing. Until they launch their model then these are solid alternatives:

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presi ... -forecast/
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president

You are spot on about Texas. I live in a very deep red area in a slightly blue county.

Meanwhile in Tennessee...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/politics/tennessee-abortion-heartbeat-bill/index.html

^^ This is the top priority of the Trump era GOP in the South.