Louisiana and Arizona will beat New York and New Jersey

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Still, however, as of today, the doubling time for New York is a year while the average doubling time across the US is a month. So New York might be densely populated, but something *else* must be stopping the desease from spreading (whatever that "something else" might be).

But are they actually conservative?

Humans are evolving, they might not be one anymore because their beliefs had been updated. I don't think my in laws are anymore because they are not racist, not against immigration, don't like Trump and will vote against him, not anti welfare. Maybe back then they were conservative but because of human evolution, they are no longer considered conservative.

By conservatives we mean by today's standards. The way I define it is that conservative is whoever votes republican. Since around 50% vote republican, yet the percentage of racists is far less than 50%, I would assume there are plenty of conservatives that aren't racist.

As far as Trump goes its a bit more interesting. Most republicans do vote for Trump yet the three *notable* republicans, Bush, McCain and Romney are not. So why would Republican former presidents and Republican former presidential candidates oppose Trump when majority of Republicans support him? Perhaps the Republican party line have shifted just to accommodate him?

Admittedly, being conservative in the Spokane area where I live looks pretty moderate when compared to other parts of the country.

But the OP is right. Its spreading like a brush fire from the original hot spots to previously unscorched areas. And they seemed to be successful at "stomping down the embers" in New York City now, while these new places get burned, and other early hotspots are getting flair ups.

For the whole globe it's similar.

For weeks and weeks the US number of cases was almost exactly one third of the entire world's cases. But now...whoopie...we have dropped to "only" one fourth of the world's cases. But not because were slowing down, because its getting worse here, but because places like Russia, India, and especially Brazil are catching up to us!


Brazil is the number two country, and could over take us for the HONOR being number one soon!

In New York it is actually slowing down. The fact that they double in a year means that it will take a year for them to produce the number of cases they currently have. Well, in order to produce these cases the first time it took a lot less than a year. So that means they are slowing down.

Other states in the US are speeding up though. An average state doubles in a month, so it means it will take a month to produce the cases that they currently have -- even though it took a lot more than a month to produce them the first time. So that means that the rest of the states in the US are speeding up.

The good news however is that in the beginning they used to double every two days. So the fact that its a month rather than two days is good. But what that means is that it is slower than exponential, but it can still be faster than linear. It could be something like quadratic. New York on the other hand is slower than linear (see above) so New York is probably like square root or something.



I haven't checked it recently, but when I checked it few months ago I saw that -- as far as per capita goes -- US is *not* number one. For one thing, Italy was far ahead of the US per capita, along with some other countries. The reason US is ahead of Italy as far as total number of cases is because US population is a lot larger than the population of Italy.

However, since US had a third of worlds cases while US population is far less than a third, US per capita has to be"close" to top. But "close" to top doesn't imply "the" top. Countries like Italy can keep the US from being "the" top while still allowing it to have the third of worlds cases, as long as populations of Italy and other such countries are tiny.

Last edited by QFT on 17 Jul 2020, 2:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

Yeah in covid cases....

UPDATE: Today, Arizona has beaten the New Jersey when it comes to cases per capita:

New York: 2,094
Arizona: 1,995
New Jersey: 1,992
Louisiana: 1,973

As far as the total cases, the fact that New Jersey was beaten by California, Florida and Texas is older news (it was the case even at the time when I started the OP). But, just for record's sake, here are the total cases today:

New York: 407,326
California: 386,960
Florida: 360,394
Texas: 336,301
New Jersey: 176,963

So New Jersey gave up its long-standing number 2 status both in total cases and in cases per capita.

New York is still number 1 in both regards. But it won't be long until New York gives up its number 1 status too. I anticipate it would probably take less than a week from now.

I anticipate that the states that will beat New York in total cases and cases per capita are the same respective states that have beaten New Jersey.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Now Louisiana cought up, and beat New Jersey as well. Now New Jersey is number 4 when it comes to per capita:

New York: 2,094
Louisiana: 2,041
Arizona: 1,995
New Jersey: 1,992

A REAL IMPORTANT UPDATE: NEW YORK IS NO LONGER NUMBER ONE, neither in total cases nor per capita!! ! As far as "total cases" it was beaten by California, as far as per capita it was beaten by Louisiana.

TOTAL CASES:

California: 409,598
New York: 408,886
Florida: 379,619
Texas: 353,091
New Jersey: 177,645

PER CAPITA:

Louisiana: 2,137
New York: 2,102
Arizona: 2,043
New Jersey: 2,000

I am sure Arizona will beat New York by tomorrow, it just wasn't updated yet or something.

Apparently a few did -- both in row numbers and per capita.

Row numbers:

California: 549,967
Florida: 526,577
Texas: 496,558
New York: 420,345

Per capita

Louisiana: 2,769
Arizona: 2,557
Florida: 2,452
Mississippi: 2,239
New York: 2,161

Incidentally, Florida simultaneously beat New York in both ways.

I really was thinking of “deaths” at the time I said that—in all honesty.

But you win in this case. I concede and bow to you.

Thats not what you said though. Although even in deaths, the New Jersey beat New York when it comes to per capita:

New Jersey: 179
New York: 168

In terms of total number of deaths New York is still number 1 though and has twice more deaths than New Jersey:

New York: 32,768
New Jersey: 15,869

But its true though that every single state "other than" New Jersey is far behind New York both in numbers of deaths and per capita.

I have few theories of why that could be the case:

a) It takes few months for people to die, so deaths reflect more the past than the present

b) Whether or not the cases die depends on whether there are sufficient rooms in the hospitals to take care of them. So if Florida has similar number of cases as New York, but Florida accummulated them over time while New York had them all at the same time, then in New York they would have had harder time taking care of all of them, hence more deaths

c) Perhaps the COVID virus keeps mutating so in some places its more lethal than in the other ones

d) Other

What do you think?

I believe it’s because more younger people are engaging in reckless behavior, and acquiring the virus. Inevitably, less deaths will occur within a COVID context when the median age of those who test positive is younger.

The median age for those who tested positive was the 50s early on. Now, the median age seems to be the 30s.

So then the implication is that New York is where people really couldn't help it, while other states is where they got it through recklessness.



So basically during the first stage people couldn't help the spread, while right now things spread through recklessness.

I don't know about others, but as far as me its true that I am less careful now than I was when it first hit. At first I was scared as hell, but as months went by and I weren't catchign it, I became more relaxed about it.

So does the decrease in median age indicates that -- if people didn't let their guard down -- the COVID might have ended by now? And thats why people that are catching it now are the reckless kind (that is, the youth)?

There was a lack of knowledge of how COVID spread internationally, at first. It was assumed that China was the only epicenter of it in January.

It wasn’t known at the time how fast it spread in places like Italy to places like NYC—it wasn’t known that Iran and Italy would soon show that COVID was spreading from more than one “front,” more than one epicenter.

There were no real measures taken in the US until at least two months after it started to spread from China, and at least 1.5 months after it started to spread from Europe/Iran.