Former Australian prime-minister predicts Taiwan invasion

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SkinnedWolf
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25 Mar 2022, 9:01 am

and. The use of "force" to unify Taiwan is considered the worst policy in China (officially and privately).
China is also not currently ready to accept Taiwan's population and industry.
Unless there is some new world upheaval. The Chinese official's handling of Taiwan, either way, will not happen in the near future. This has no obvious benefit in terms of revenue.


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Fnord
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25 Mar 2022, 9:07 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
and. The use of "force" to unify Taiwan is considered the worst policy in China (officially and privately).  China is also not currently ready to accept Taiwan's population and industry.  Unless there is some new world upheaval. The Chinese official's handling of Taiwan, either way, will not happen in the near future. This has no obvious benefit in terms of revenue.
你这么说是因为你相信这是真的,还是因为你被告知要这么说?



Pepe
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25 Mar 2022, 9:11 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
Pepe wrote:
The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
And the world will not be able to punish and sanction China as it did with Russia.


I disagree, my beluved.
While China has been working towards economic independence, it still depends greatly on world consumers.
I think economic sanctions are a major concern/deterrent for the CCP.


This is very reasonable.

The CCP has recently responded to propaganda about forced Uyghur labor 1 in the Western world. This reaction outweighed the response to general publicity, which affected textile exports in the form of economic sanctions.
China's economy has benefited a lot from globalization.
1 As a minority, I think this is ridiculous. If they really care about Chinese human rights, they should pay attention to China's labor laws.


Although I have many political differences with the Chinese government, I have to admit:
China and the Chinese will be seriously threatened by economic sanctions.


It is good having someone on the "inside" give their point of view.



SkinnedWolf
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25 Mar 2022, 9:18 am

Fnord wrote:
SkinnedWolf wrote:
and. The use of "force" to unify Taiwan is considered the worst policy in China (officially and privately).  China is also not currently ready to accept Taiwan's population and industry.  Unless there is some new world upheaval. The Chinese official's handling of Taiwan, either way, will not happen in the near future. This has no obvious benefit in terms of revenue.
你这么说是因为你相信这是真的,还是因为你被告知要这么说?


My point of view. Based on my observations of Chinese politics.
No one recommended me to say anything.
In fact, I will expose the problems of Chinese officials on a lot of issues, in this forum.


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SkinnedWolf
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25 Mar 2022, 9:23 am

I think it's a fairly obvious fact:
China has spent a lot of money to help some industries in Taiwan.
Taiwanese, for whatever reason, currently surpass mainland China's living standards on average.
If it is "unified", whether it will give preferential treatment to Taiwanese or allow them to have the same standard of living as mainland Chinese, it will cause a series of problems.
China has spent a lot of time stabilizing Hong Kong. Taiwan is a much bigger problem than Hong Kong.


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Fnord
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25 Mar 2022, 9:24 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
. . . I will expose the problems of Chinese officials on a lot of issues, in this forum.
Name names and include valid links to empirical evidence, please.



Pepe
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25 Mar 2022, 9:26 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
I think it's a fairly obvious fact:
China has spent a lot of money to help some industries in Taiwan.
Taiwanese, for whatever reason, currently surpass mainland China's living standards on average.
If it is "unified", whether it will give preferential treatment to Taiwanese or allow them to have the same standard of living as mainland Chinese, it will cause a series of problems.
China has spent a lot of time stabilizing Hong Kong. Taiwan is a much bigger problem than Hong Kong.


Are you aware that Chinese fighter planes and bombers are constantly invading Taiwanese air space to intimidate Taiwan into submission?



SkinnedWolf
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25 Mar 2022, 9:29 am

Fnord wrote:
SkinnedWolf wrote:
. . . I will expose the problems of Chinese officials on a lot of issues, in this forum.
Name names and include valid links to empirical evidence, please.


A focused example: the link in my signature. In my reply to their question about Chinese culture.
An example you may have read: in the PPR joke section, the textbook on China. Complain about inaction of the education system.

I don't want my speech to become my personal complaint or make me appear like a political asylum seeker. The content will not be so direct.
Due to differences in culture and political systems. Some functions performed privately in other countries are performed by the government in China. I can't guarantee that a person unfamiliar with China's political system will understand everything I expose.


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Last edited by SkinnedWolf on 25 Mar 2022, 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

SkinnedWolf
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25 Mar 2022, 9:36 am

Pepe wrote:
SkinnedWolf wrote:
I think it's a fairly obvious fact:
China has spent a lot of money to help some industries in Taiwan.
Taiwanese, for whatever reason, currently surpass mainland China's living standards on average.
If it is "unified", whether it will give preferential treatment to Taiwanese or allow them to have the same standard of living as mainland Chinese, it will cause a series of problems.
China has spent a lot of time stabilizing Hong Kong. Taiwan is a much bigger problem than Hong Kong.


Are you aware that Chinese fighter planes and bombers are constantly invading Taiwanese air space to intimidate Taiwan into submission?


"Invasion" of airspace is a term that requires political consideration.
Military exercises are something that any country will do. Considering the distance, what China is doing is not extraordinary.


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Pepe
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25 Mar 2022, 9:42 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
Pepe wrote:
SkinnedWolf wrote:
I think it's a fairly obvious fact:
China has spent a lot of money to help some industries in Taiwan.
Taiwanese, for whatever reason, currently surpass mainland China's living standards on average.
If it is "unified", whether it will give preferential treatment to Taiwanese or allow them to have the same standard of living as mainland Chinese, it will cause a series of problems.
China has spent a lot of time stabilizing Hong Kong. Taiwan is a much bigger problem than Hong Kong.


Are you aware that Chinese fighter planes and bombers are constantly invading Taiwanese air space to intimidate Taiwan into submission?


"Invasion" of airspace is a term that requires political consideration.
Military exercises are something that any country will do. Considering the distance, what China is doing is not extraordinary.


But China is not respecting Taiwanese air space. That is deliberate.
And no, other countries don't do it that I am aware of.

Chinese military vessels also intimidate the Japanese.
How do you explain this?

And a Chinese military vessel shone a military laser at an Australian surveillance aircraft, with the possibility of blinding the crew and causing equipment failure.
This happened recently.



SkinnedWolf
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25 Mar 2022, 10:09 am

Pepe wrote:
SkinnedWolf wrote:
Pepe wrote:
SkinnedWolf wrote:
I think it's a fairly obvious fact:
China has spent a lot of money to help some industries in Taiwan.
Taiwanese, for whatever reason, currently surpass mainland China's living standards on average.
If it is "unified", whether it will give preferential treatment to Taiwanese or allow them to have the same standard of living as mainland Chinese, it will cause a series of problems.
China has spent a lot of time stabilizing Hong Kong. Taiwan is a much bigger problem than Hong Kong.


Are you aware that Chinese fighter planes and bombers are constantly invading Taiwanese air space to intimidate Taiwan into submission?


"Invasion" of airspace is a term that requires political consideration.
Military exercises are something that any country will do. Considering the distance, what China is doing is not extraordinary.


But China is not respecting Taiwanese air space. That is deliberate.
And no, other countries don't do it that I am aware of.

Chinese military vessels also intimidate the Japanese.
How do you explain this?

And a Chinese military vessel shone a military laser at an Australian surveillance aircraft, with the possibility of blinding the crew and causing equipment failure.
This happened recently.


China's airspace line is different from Taiwan's. This conceptual conflict exists in many disputed areas.

An official message from China is:
Quote:
According to Taiwanese media reports quoted by the World Wide Web on August 11, recently, the Taiwan-US coast patrol department was reported to have secretly held a joint exercise off the coast of Hualien.


I am committed to making language not hinder the exchange of information.I don't fully trust either party's propaganda and have no intention of hating any one particular country or culture. Some tricks I use help me bypass most of the filtering. I personally welcome information from any other source to supplement my repository, as long as the evidence is conclusive. The same below.

Quote:
Activities of foreign ships and aircraft in China's surrounding waters
.....
Some countries outside the region are constantly renovating, strengthening frontier military presence, and promoting regional "militarization", which not only harms the security interests of coastal countries, but also is not conducive to regional peace and stability. China firmly opposes this.


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magz
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25 Mar 2022, 10:27 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:
Quote:
Activities of foreign ships and aircraft in China's surrounding waters
.....
Some countries outside the region are constantly renovating, strengthening frontier military presence, and promoting regional "militarization", which not only harms the security interests of coastal countries, but also is not conducive to regional peace and stability. China firmly opposes this.

That sounds strangely familiar - similar language has been used to blame NATO for Russia invading Ukraine.
How not to strenghten military presence when you know you can be invaded?


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25 Mar 2022, 10:32 am

What about China's theft of the Spratly Islands from the Philippines?  The archipelago lies off the coasts of the Philippines, Malaysia, and southern Vietnam.  It is nowhere near the coast of mainland China, yet China has built a forward naval base on one of the islands in violation of Philippine sovereignty.



magz
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25 Mar 2022, 10:34 am

Fnord wrote:
What about China's theft of the Spratly Islands from the Philippines?  The archipelago lies off the coasts of the Philippines, Malaysia, and southern Vietnam.  It is nowhere near the coast of mainland China, yet China has built a forward naval base on one of the islands in violation of Philippine sovereignty.
I'd find something like this definitely a reason to strenghten military presence a lot.


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SkinnedWolf
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25 Mar 2022, 11:22 am

Fnord wrote:
What about China's theft of the Spratly Islands from the Philippines?  The archipelago lies off the coasts of the Philippines, Malaysia, and southern Vietnam.  It is nowhere near the coast of mainland China, yet China has built a forward naval base on one of the islands in violation of Philippine sovereignty.


The discussion will gradually move into territory that I am not familiar with.
To reiterate: this is not my opinion, so not how I "interpret" it.
Given my non-mainstream political views, many times I seek evidence from other sources of information to help me oppose my friends' propaganda against me.
There can be many problems with translation, and proofreading such a large amount of text is too difficult for me.

2016
Quote:
Hua Chunying pointed out that since the 1970s, the Philippines has violated the UN Charter and the principles of international law and illegally occupied some islands and reefs in China's Nansha Islands, including Mahuan Island, Feixin Island, Zhongye Island, Nanyao Island, and Beihai Island. Zidao, Xiyue Island, Shuanghuang Sandbar and Commander Reef.
...
Hua Chunying said that the Philippine side claimed in the notification that it "does not require a determination of the sovereignty of the islands and reefs claimed by both sides". On January 22, the Philippine side publicly stated that the purpose of initiating the arbitration was to "obtain a lasting solution" to the dispute between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. This in itself is self-contradictory.
...
Therefore, the arbitration claim of the Philippines is obviously invalid. China's refusal to accept the Philippines' request for arbitration has sufficient basis in international law.


2011
Quote:
Philippine authorities will verify reports that China is building a garrison in an area claimed by the Philippines in the disputed Spratly Islands. But President Aquino said the reports may refer to the old facility.
"If you're talking about building garrison facilities, people may think it's new," Aquino said. "If it's really new, then they're probably amplifying the problem."
"I don't think there is a military presence at all," Aquino said in a surprise interview with reporters in Halahara, Rizal province on the 24th. If there is, they say there is a weather station there. Areas that are occupied and claimed.”
At Malacañang, spokesman Abigail Barter said they had received information from the Ministry of Defence that the facilities were old and built before a code of conduct was proposed by the claimant country.


It is easy to interview multiple trusted people who are familiar with Xinjiang, but it is difficult to interview people who are familiar with the Nansha Islands. I have no personal opinion on the above.


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SkinnedWolf
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25 Mar 2022, 11:30 am

magz wrote:
SkinnedWolf wrote:
Quote:
Activities of foreign ships and aircraft in China's surrounding waters
.....
Some countries outside the region are constantly renovating, strengthening frontier military presence, and promoting regional "militarization", which not only harms the security interests of coastal countries, but also is not conducive to regional peace and stability. China firmly opposes this.

That sounds strangely familiar - similar language has been used to blame NATO for Russia invading Ukraine.
How not to strenghten military presence when you know you can be invaded?


This requires consideration of the true ownership of the disputed territory and who "enhanced the military presence" first.
The former cannot possibly have a reasonable answer. I'll try to find the latter, it's not an easy job to do.


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Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.

You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.
Dance with me, funeralxempire. Into night's circle we fly, until the fire enjoys us.