Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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With the bars closed, the 2020s look eerily like the 1920s.

Very good, systematic guide to coronavirus, though a lot to read:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03 ... ronavirus/

From this, I think this is an important graphics:

It illustrates the goal of current intervention: it's not aimed at complete prevention of any new cases - this is likely impossible - but to gain three advantages:
1. Delay of the main outbreak, so the healthcare system can prepare for it better;
2. Decompress the main peak so the system doesn't get overloaded by one huge outbreak;
3. Diminish overall cases - we can't prevent all of them but we can prevent many of them.

More traffic on NYC highways this morning. Got into a traffic jam. Wasn’t caused by an accident.

Trains lighter than normal. Maybe 60% of normal. More than yesterday.

There might be a rush to Jersey malls. They’re mostly closing tonight.

More people wearing masks. 5 to 10:1 ratio no masks:masks.

I just looked at the live update numbers and quite honestly I was underwhelmed.

The total number if deaths attributed to corvid-19 worldwide in all this time, is still less than the number of people who die in the US on a daily basis.

The number of active cases and deaths has not increased by a significant amount ( say compared to regular flu) in my opinion from the last time I viewed the stats a week ago.

Now maybe a month from now I will be seeing numbers that will make my chin drop. But right now this thing does not appear to be any more of a threat than many other things that make people sick and kill them. Most of which most people hardly bat an eye at.

Last edited by EzraS on 17 Mar 2020, 6:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

According to Worldometer:

Coronavirus Cases:186,669 worldwide on 17 March 2020

ACTIVE CASES total 98,863 of which currently infected patients 92,679 (94%) in mild Condition and 6,184 (6%) serious or critical.

CLOSED CASES = 87,806 cases with an outcome, of which 80,338 (91%) recovered and were discharged ...... and 7,468 (9%) were deaths.

For 4 weeks that last figure, of closed cases ending in death, was 6%, then a few days ago it became 7% and today it is 9%.

Out of all 87K closed cases so far, ( which is nearly a half of them ), 9% have died!

.... this does not look much like the 1% - 2% that many people keep mentioning, ( still 10-20 times the fatality rate of flu ), nor even the 3.4% that the WHO have been talking about. This is almost 10% ! !!

I realise that this is the percentage of dead *identified confirmed* coronavirus cases but ....

And the number of deaths outside China continues to double every 3.4 days, almost exactly, which, ( if not enough is done to significantly slow it, as China, S. Korea etc, managed to do ), leads to 174 million dead by mid May.

NB. Figure for % Deaths out of Closed Cases has just dropped to 8%, which is good, but it's still higher than it has been for weeks, and a pretty scary number.

Last edited by ouinon2 on 17 Mar 2020, 7:28 am, edited 3 times in total.

Yep those are the numbers I just looked at. Between now and this time yesterday, 7,708 people died in the United States.

It’s not going to continue to double every 3-4 days.

We probably will have a peak because of more widespread testing.

The measures taken, while drastic, were probably the right measures.

The average "resting"/normal death rate in the USA is 9 - 10 in 1000.

Coronavirus looks like it might increase that by a factor of 100 this year. [ nb. my maths failed me here; I don't know what this factor would be actually, just that it would be very significant ... ]

Last edited by ouinon2 on 17 Mar 2020, 7:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

I don't think that "widespread testing" can be contributing to the number of deaths. So far the number of deaths outside China has doubled every 3.4 days, and there is no sign of it slowing down yet. That doubling rapidly leads to huge figures.

Well it is off to a very slow start then. It's already reached its peak and now decreasing in China where it started, the most populated country on earth, with nowhere close to those numbers.

I totally agree with you.
Things might become much worse but at the moment the hysteria is unjustified, imo.

Economic damage might be something more worthy of attention.

That is because China took extreme rapid massive steps to test, track, screen, contain, control and treat it.

There was really genuinely widespread testing and tracing, and centralised quarantine measures, and industrial scale disinfection of all roads, buildings etc.

The disease did not peak naturally or spontaneously or because of seasonal factors. It was brought to a stop by concerted unprecedented effort on the part of China's administration and Chinese people.

Exponential series always get off to a slow start. It's what makes them so dangerous. They are gradual and then very sudden. Have you heard of the Chinese story about the man whose King offered him a reward for something and he asked for a grain of rice on the first square of a chessboard, and 2 on the next, and 4 on the third square, etc, doubling at every square? The king didn't hesitate to agree to the reward, but when it came to pay it he found that he didn't have enough rice in the kingdom to fulfill his promise!

Very pleasing how the Chinese situation is mitigating.
A good portent for the rest of the world.

Yes, if the rest of the world succeeds in copying what China did, which currently looks rather doubtful.

We’re not going to have 174 million deaths.....

In other words China has proven that the virus is very controllable.

I know what you are working with here. It's like the old addage that if you take a penny and keep doubling it daily, in a month you'll have a million dollars.

But if that's the way virusus spread, the world's population would be a lot smaller.