Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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I wonder though after seeing that as many as 60,000 people in the US die of the flu in the US per year, what the numbers for it are for Hubei Province. Like what is the highest number of flu related deaths there annually going back to 2010? I have not been able to find any such figures. I just get current articles about covid-19.

Again, infrastructure: the existing healthcare system is adapted for handling roughly the same distribution of flu cases every witner. It's adapted to the roughly constant rate of traffic accidents.
But to manage the outbreak in Hubei, the Chinese built a large hospital in 6 days! It's the locality and intensity that overloads the system we try to prevent.

At this point no one knows how it will develop, so they are playing it safe. Where I am in the Seattle area as far as I know places are doing the same voluntarily at least until March 31st.

But the fact is it did not turn out to be a horrifically deadly virus in China so far and is now tapering down, in a country so crowded that only 1 or 2 children per family is allowed.

It's amazing that they were able to build a full-service hospital in 6 days.

Yep.

Please stay home as much as possible everyone. Buy baked goods pre-packed, don't buy bread unwrapped.Wash fruit and veg. Talk to friends on the phone and web.Don't by food that is not pre-packed.
Doctors are getting sick over here and medical supplies can't be brought in. The sick are tripling every day but slow recoveries. No fatalities so far but we have a complete shutdown. It will be here for a long time so stay safe.

They still are not testing like they should If you don't test you can fudge the numbers and say he/she died of flu / pneumonia.
You have to look what they are doing not what they are saying they would never hurt buisness like they are for no reason.

In Israel we are sending the not critically ill to hotels (used as hospitals) the hotels are empty anyway. This was copied from the Saudis!!
Everyone is home so we are having balcony parties, Each family on their own balcony, families talk and sing together, inspired by the Italians! Corona is making some people nicer.
Americans are buying guns? Why?

Last edited by Teach51 on 17 Mar 2020, 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

In the US, they're putting homeless people in hotels, too.

indeed

Excellent! You see? Nature will force us to be caring.

Last edited by Teach51 on 17 Mar 2020, 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

As far as I know they put together a makeshift 1000 bed prefab structure. Rather than building a traditional hospital building in 6 days. I have a feeling the US Army Corps of Engineers could do the same.

They probably could...no doubt!

The Army Corps of Engineers could do that.

From what I seen----it's an actual building, that 6-day hospital.

Instead of building makeshift structures, why not just be more resourceful in using existing structures?

It seems like you are looking at this through a political lens rather than a coronavirus lens.

Several months ago, Trump made an executive decision to seal off the United States from an infected area of China. At the time he was accused by the liberal mainstream media of being racist, of being Xenophobic. Italy went with a business as usual approach. So what was the effect of this decision.

Population of Italy = 60 million
Population of U.S. = 327 million
Number of deaths in Italy due to coronavirus = 2158
Number of deaths in U.S. due to coronavirus = 91

So if you compare how many theoretical deaths would have occurred in the U.S. if Trump had not made that executive decision when he did, one could argue that the U.S. had
11,761 - 91 = 11,670 fewer coronavirus deaths in the U.S. as of this date due to his decision.

But it also has a follow on effect in the area of the normal flu deaths in the U.S.

In the following thread of 19 September 2019, I stated that "So, based on data from Australia, it is reasonable to conclude that we are indeed looking at a potentially bad flu season." Refer to Upcoming Flu Season
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. How did that forecast turn out? Well according to the CDC "The number of hospitalizations estimated so far this season is lower than end-of-season total hospitalization estimates for any season since CDC began making these estimates."
Refer to: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates

So why did this forecast not materialize? Well it is probably due to free will. Most people in the U.S. make their own decisions. They are not robots that need the government to tell them what to do. They sense danger and adjust their lives accordingly. They integrate all the information available and then implement precautions or ignore them. The media has been obsessed with the coronavirus for the past several months. When the CDC and WHO discuss precautions people listened and integrated that into their daily lives. Trumps decision to cut off contact with an infectious region, China, sent shockwaves around the U.S.

It reminds me of an article I discussed on 12 February [page 17 of this thread]:
"A woman from Hawaii planned to take her family on a Cruise. Because of this coronavirus threat she decided to cancel their cruise vacation, which they booked a year ago, long before the coronavirus outbreak. Since the boat is scheduled to stop in Hong Kong, they decided that it was better to play it safe. So she asked for a refund. Her family paid $4,000-a-person for the trip, coming to a total of $32,000. Unfortunately, she will not be getting her money back. So even though she bought the extra travel insurance, it does not cover epidemics such as the coronavirus."

She sensed danger and she minimized the risk to herself, her children and grandchildren by canceling the trip even though she ate $32,000 in the process. It wasn't the government that cancelled her plans. She used her intelligence to weigh the risk factors and derive a logical decision.

All these precautions for the coronavirus also had a follow on effect on the seasonal flu. People took note and they got the influenza vaccine, they applied social distancing, they stocked up an extra supply of food in case they needed to quarantine, they made changes some big and some small, many also had a direct effect on seasonal flu deaths. People stopped going on cruises not because the local/state/federal government told them not to but because the daily news highlighted the plight of the passengers aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Last edited by jimmy m on 17 Mar 2020, 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.