Sweden the only country with Correct Approach to CVD-19

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Antrax
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31 Oct 2020, 4:57 pm

goldfish21 wrote:

cyberdad wrote:

I am concerned that there are cases of people getting infected more than once which means the effectiveness of the first vaccine will be questionable.

There may be a cycle of lockdowns (as we are seeing currently throughout Europe) and at some point a country will have to take the brave decision that Sweden made and decide that herd immunity might be better than complete social collapse.

Lol yeah except they still only have something like 5-7% of their population with antibodies and a death rate that’s far higher than neighbouring nations. How you see this as the “correct approach,” is beyond me. They still need like 15-18x more people to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity, which would likely translate to the same multiple of additional deaths.

Meanwhile, society is not collapsing in countries that have opted to slow the spread via lockdowns, masks, and social distancing until an effective vaccine is available.

There's a decent chance Sweden looks smart 3 years from now. If there is never going to be an effective vaccine (looking more and more possible) than all these nations trying to delay the inevitable are only prolonging their pain.

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cyberdad
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31 Oct 2020, 8:50 pm

and speaking of vaccines

Everyone’s waiting for the first round of coronavirus vaccines, but the head of the UK’s vaccine task force has warned we might never have one, and if we do it might not work that well at first.
“The first generation of vaccines is likely to be imperfect, and we should be prepared that they might not prevent infection but rather reduce symptoms, and, even then, might not work for everyone or for long,” Kate Bingham wrote in medical journal The Lancet.
https://www.news.com.au/technology/scie ... e4fb28e7e1
Assuming we never get a viable vaccine then Sweden will at least be the first country to come out of the cycle of lockdown first as most of their population has probably been exposed to the virus by now.

cyberdad
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31 Oct 2020, 9:01 pm

Antrax wrote:

goldfish21 wrote:

cyberdad wrote:

I used to be a microbiologist many years ago and while virology is not my area of expertise, based on the epidemiology and biology of COVID-19 I was was always skeptical about a viable vaccine (at least in the short term).

The primary issue is whether a vaccine that's eventually developed would offer any protection to people who are currently "long haulers" for whom 10% of those infected don't seem to be able to develop antibodies? and then people who are currently already susceptible because of immunodeficiencies?

goldfish21
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01 Nov 2020, 5:14 pm

cyberdad wrote:

Yeah, effective vaccines may take some trial & error and time etc IF it can be done.

But no, Sweden’s population Hasn’t nearly all been exposed to C-19. As has been published more than once, they’re only seeing antibodies in something like 5-7% or their population, so they’d still need ~19X as many people to get sick & die before they achieve herd immunity. Which is the reason Almost All countries have opted to try to limit the spread of C-19 vs let people get sick and die and pretend that that was a good strategy.

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cyberdad
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01 Nov 2020, 5:43 pm

goldfish21 wrote:

But no, Sweden’s population Hasn’t nearly all been exposed to C-19. As has been published more than once, they’re only seeing antibodies in something like 5-7% or their population, so they’d still need ~19X as many people to get sick & die before they achieve herd immunity. Which is the reason Almost All countries have opted to try to limit the spread of C-19 vs let people get sick and die and pretend that that was a good strategy.

Sweden took a big risk (agreed) but it was based on consensus by its people (I posted that 70% of older swedes agreed with the proposal to leave their country open during the infection phase).

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01 Nov 2020, 5:46 pm

cyberdad wrote:

goldfish21 wrote:

Sweden took a big risk (agreed) but it was based on consensus by its people (I posted that 70% of older swedes agreed with the proposal to leave their country open during the infection phase).

Perhaps from one news source. I’ve seen other accounts online from Swedes saying their top doctors, health, and government officials won’t admit that they f****d up on this one. So, there is no national Swedish consensus on covid any more than there is here in Canada or in the USA.

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01 Nov 2020, 8:52 pm

Support for the government's management of the corona crisis remains high across a broad spectrum of the population. I think the last figures were something like 68% approval by the population as a whole. I believe this is partially due to a kind of denial by selective statistics. Swedes compare themselves to the UK, France, US, etc. and in absolute numbers, which is of course favorable to a small country like them. If you ask them why they're much worse off than, say, South Korea, they brush it off by saying it is impossible to compare to such a "different" culture. If you ask them why they're much worse off than neighbouring Norway and Finland, they get annoyed and blame differing ways of collecting statistic data. It is, to a degree, a matter of national pride.

Having said that, recent guidelines from the government are much more stringent and encompassing than earlier, so I do believe they're trying to learn from their mistakes. A lockdown is, at the moment, legally impossible, though, similar to, for example, Japan.

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01 Nov 2020, 10:39 pm

Restrictions only make sense if they save lives in the long term.

Good reasons for restrictions:

1) Keeping medical resources from being overwhelmed.

2) Keeping at risk groups from being infected

3) Believing an imminent medical advance will either decrease number of cases or decrease effect of cases

Bad reasons for restrictions:

1) Believing in the long run you can prevent more cases (sans said medical advance)

2) Believing the virus will just go away after enough time or with enough restrictions.

I think at the end of the day Sweden's approach will look smart, but that's semi-educated guesswork on my part.

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Tempus Fugit
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01 Nov 2020, 11:18 pm

Sweden's approach was the practical one. As they were first some mistakes were made. An improved version should be implemented by other countries.

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02 Nov 2020, 4:44 am

Tempus Fugit wrote:

Sweden's approach was the practical one. As they were first some mistakes were made. An improved version should be implemented by other countries.

Like, nationwide high quality medical care and extensive social safety net, so people are not afraid to miss work when sick?

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Tempus Fugit
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02 Nov 2020, 4:50 am

magz wrote:

Tempus Fugit wrote:

Sweden's approach was the practical one. As they were first some mistakes were made. An improved version should be implemented by other countries.

Like, nationwide high quality medical care and extensive social safety net, so people are not afraid to miss work when sick?

Like how they approached the coronavirus.

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02 Nov 2020, 4:58 am

That are parts od Swedish reality and the outcome may have depended on them.

What mistakes, in your opinion, should be corrected and how?

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Tempus Fugit
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02 Nov 2020, 5:23 am

The mistakes that have been discussed in this thread over the last 6 months.

magz
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02 Nov 2020, 5:35 am

The one I know: Care home employees were mostly poor immigrants who couldn't afford missing work when sick.

Correcting it would be great but it wouldn't be easy.

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08 Dec 2020, 12:43 am

Sweden introduces new and tougher restrictions as infections mount

Quote:

The government now limits public gatherings to eight people. And since Nov. 20, bars and restaurants must stop selling alcohol at 10 p.m. before closing at 10:30 p.m. But restaurants only need to remain shut for 30 minutes and some have already found a loophole.

“We have 20 employees that will end up homeless unless we do this. If the government had helped with a support package for restaurants, offering fixed pays and layoffs for all staff, we would have closed tomorrow,” Alexander Dhazi, HR manager at Monky Bar, told the newspaper Aftonbladet.

With few visitors and consumers, restaurants and businesses alike are suffering. In March, 655 companies went bankrupt, the highest number in 10 years.

Between April and March, 69 000 people were laid off and 50% of them had lost their jobs four months later.

In October, the amount of people who were unemployed or looking for work had increased by 45% compared to the same period last year. And an overall majority are from the restaurant and service industry.

Despite similar social distancing guidelines, Sweden has far more infections than its Nordic neighbors. Last week Sweden had around 4,000 to 5,000 daily new cases and around 20 deaths per day.

Finland, which has had similar recommendations following its lockdown, has one of the lowest rates in Europe with about 400 new cases every day, and just a few deaths per day.

Sweden now has 637 deaths per million population compared to 137 in Denmark, 70 in Finland and 59 in Norway.

In Sweden, the Public Health Agency website says there is no need to wear a mouth mask. It states that the coronavirus spreads through large droplets, not aerosols, and recommends keeping a social distance of between 3 and 5 feet.

The reasons why the numbers are so different despite now similar recommendations are heavily debated among politicians, researchers and decision-makers. But some point towards the non-lockdown.

Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at the Swedish public health agency said it’s too soon to compare other countries’ approaches to the coronavirus.

“We had a different start of the virus, with higher initial infections. We now compare ourselves to countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium and the United Kingdom which had a much more drastic start to the epidemic,” Tegnell told SVT, the Swedish public service television.

He has previously referred to a preliminary scientific paper available through George Mason University Working Papers. The paper, that has yet to be peer-reviewed, discusses 15 reasons why Sweden has a higher infection rate than its Nordic neighbors.

Some of the reasons are a larger population, more travel to Alpine regions during the spring and a higher proportion of people in elderly care.

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cyberdad
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08 Dec 2020, 12:53 am

Well the experiment may have failed but the Swedes had fun while it lasted

Those were the days my friend
We thought they'd never end
We'd sing and dance forever and a day
We'd live the life we choose
We'd fight and never lose
For we were young and sure to have our way

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