Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Italian data beginning to show that nearly all who have died "from" the virus had other serious illnesses:

Google translation:

Rome, 18 Mar 09:29 - (Agenzia Nova) - Only 12 deaths caused by coronavirus have been ascertained so far. The data, however, emerges from the analysis of just 355 medical records, out of 2,003 received by the Higher Institute of Health (ISS). All the other 343 patients who fell victim to the epidemic, according to the ISS, had other serious diseases, which caused their death. Almost 50 percent of the deceased had 3 previous pathologies, and the average of the 343 deaths from secondary causes is 2.7 pathologies per person. The 12 deceased patients, equal to 3.38 per cent of the sample examined, however, had no previous pathology , which means that their death was caused, precisely, by Covid-19.

https://translate.googleusercontent.com ... ipatologie

day1 2,300
day2 4,600
day3 9,200
day4 18,400
day5 36,800
day6 73,600
day7 147,200
day8 294,400
day9 588,800
day10 1,177,600
day11 2,355,200
day12 4,710,400
day13 9,420,800

It can grow that fast.

I have a better trick. I don't shave.

Theoretically yes.

But that has not been the case anywhere close to that in every place where is already past day 13.

NYC for example is at day 17 since their first covid-19 case. The first covid-19 death related case in the whole state took place on day 13 and the victim was an 82 year old woman with underlying respiratory issues.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/first-cor ... ork-state/

China, which I reiterate has the densest population of anywhere in the world, it is at around day 100 and all the known cases of it, amount to a tiny fraction of its population.

Last edited by EzraS on 18 Mar 2020, 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

It's not "doubling" like that.

We will have more cases once testing is accelerated. The rise in cases is related to the efficiency of testing. Let's assess the damage when the vast majority of the population has been tested, and the percentage of positive tests based on all this testing is known.

Many people who want tests, need tests, and seek tests are denied on technicalities. I doubt the world will get to a point where "the vast majority of the population" gets tested. That's cost prohibitive and impossible to source.

That because China, and the Chinese people; understood the risk and took extreme measures.

If all NY gets infected then it will be more than 2% death (you surely know why), that may lead to 400k sudden deaths or even more.

Another problem is that people are able to catch it twice (possibly more, who knows?)

That means even if everyone got tested, they would need tested twice (to see if they are recovered, or to see if they got a second round, or even to re-check the people who were negative).

Now the real "fun" if THAT gets spread: http://www.emro.who.int/fr/pandemic-epi ... -2020.html

A fatality rate of 34%, this one is a meteor ticking bomb.

If it keeps mutating, and we keep re-catching it, then that would mean a much shorter lifespan for the human species.

Last edited by The_Face_of_Boo on 18 Mar 2020, 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

So what if there are a lot more mild to asymptomatic cases. It is the deaths that are casing all the shutdowns and lockdowns. If testing shows that there are 3 times as many mild cases than are known of, that would just mean it is that much less dangerous.

And I wonder how is this accelerated testing supposed to take place? Will it be mandatory that everyone gets tested? And if a zillion mild to asymptomatic people test positive then what? They all get quarantined for weeks?

We're not going to get to 400k deaths.

About 10% of the people who have been tested so far test positive. Even in Hubei, China, about 83% had mild illness, and recovered. And some who had major illness survived, too.

So...worst case scenario: 900,000 people test positive. 800,000 have mild illness, 100,000 have more severe illness. I would say the worst-case scenario is about 20,000 deaths, which is an extreme amount of deaths----but not 400,000.

But we're not going to reach 20,000 deaths. Even China only reached about 3,300. Italy will probably go above that, though.

Will US and UK take drastic measures like China tho?

Some UK officials said that about 80% of its population may get infected at the end of year....that would lead to about 10M of severe cases.

China is not some magical place where only they can understand the risks and take appropriate measures. If China were all that advanced, they would not have wild animal wet markets, which probably caused covid-19. In other words, covid-19 would have never started in NYC because of their advanced health laws and practices that totally forbid and rule out anything like a Chinese wet market.

That seems to be a likely conclusion. There is also the large population of survivalists in the western USA who regularly eat bush-meat (i.e., possum, raccoon, squirrel, et cetera). Given enough time, they may produce a similar contagion that threatened Civilization As We Know It.

Maybe not.

I feel like the mortality rate will go down once the mild cases are found out through testing. Nowadays, the vast majority of the people tested are people with relatively severe symptoms, and who had gone to China/Korea recently, and who have come in definite contact with someone who has COVID-19.

I feel like it will come out about similar to South Korea's mortality rate.

The most harm in the "western" world, like in China, will come to people who are frail and immunocompromised.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 18 Mar 2020, 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.