Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

Page 119 of 539 [ 8616 posts ] Go to page Previous 1 ... 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122 ... 539 Next

Previous topic | Next topic

magz
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 1 Jun 2017
Age: 41
Gender: Female
Posts: 16,283
Location: Poland

18 Mar 2020, 1:25 pm

Darmok wrote:

Italian data beginning to show that nearly all who have died "from" the virus had other serious illnesses:

Google translation:

Rome, 18 Mar 09:29 - (Agenzia Nova) - Only 12 deaths caused by coronavirus have been ascertained so far. The data, however, emerges from the analysis of just 355 medical records, out of 2,003 received by the Higher Institute of Health (ISS). All the other 343 patients who fell victim to the epidemic, according to the ISS, had other serious diseases, which caused their death. Almost 50 percent of the deceased had 3 previous pathologies, and the average of the 343 deaths from secondary causes is 2.7 pathologies per person. The 12 deceased patients, equal to 3.38 per cent of the sample examined, however, had no previous pathology , which means that their death was caused, precisely, by Covid-19.

https://translate.googleusercontent.com ... ipatologie

Yes, healthy people under 60 are not really at risk of dying from covid.
Nevertheless, I don't want all the people with serious health issues to die now. I don't want to help spread the thing.

_________________
Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.

<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>

EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

18 Mar 2020, 1:26 pm

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

We're not going to get to 400k deaths.

About 10% of the people who have been tested so far test positive. Even in Hubei, China, about 83% had mild illness, and recovered. And some who had major illness survived, too.

So...worst case scenario: 900,000 people test positive. 800,000 have mild illness, 100,000 have more severe illness. I would say the worst-case scenario is about 20,000 deaths. But we're not going to reach that height in deaths.

Will US and UK take drastic measures like China tho?

Some UK officials said that about 80% of its population may get infected at the end of year....that would lead to about 10M of severe cases.

What were the drastic measures that China took?

The_Face_of_Boo
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 16 Jun 2010
Age: 44
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 33,669
Location: Beirut, Lebanon.

18 Mar 2020, 1:27 pm

EzraS wrote:

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

EzraS wrote:

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

EzraS wrote:

2,300 cases in a city of about 9,000,000 people.

day1 2,300
day2 4,600
day3 9,200
day4 18,400
day5 36,800
day6 73,600
day7 147,200
day8 294,400
day9 588,800
day10 1,177,600
day11 2,355,200
day12 4,710,400
day13 9,420,800

It can grow that fast.

Theoretically yes.

But that has not been the case anywhere close to that in every place where is already past day 13.

NYC for example is at day 17 since their first covid-19 case. The first covid-19 death related case in the whole state took place on day 13 and the victim was an 82 year old woman with underlying respiratory issues.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/first-cor ... ork-state/

China, which I reiterate has the densest population of anywhere in the world, it is at around day 100 and all the known cases of it, amount to a tiny fraction of its population.

That because China, and the Chinese people; understood the risk and took extreme measures.

If all NY gets infected then it will be more than 2% death (you surely know why), that may lead to 400k sudden deaths or even more.

China is not some magical place where only they can understand the risks and take appropriate measures. If China were all that advanced, they would not have wild animal wet markets, which probably caused covid-19. In other words, covid-19 would have never started in NYC because of their advanced health laws and practices that totally forbid and rule out anything like a Chinese wet market.

And Mad cow disease started in UK because they were feeding bones and crap to cows; this s**t can happen anywhere, your point?

And....

The_Face_of_Boo
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 16 Jun 2010
Age: 44
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 33,669
Location: Beirut, Lebanon.

18 Mar 2020, 1:28 pm

EzraS wrote:

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

Will US and UK take drastic measures like China tho?

Some UK officials said that about 80% of its population may get infected at the end of year....that would lead to about 10M of severe cases.

What were the drastic measures that China took?

Watch the video above, 1 picture is worth 1000 words.

kraftiekortie
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 4 Feb 2014
Gender: Male
Posts: 87,510
Location: Queens, NYC

18 Mar 2020, 1:30 pm

I wish there could be mass testing----right now.

This is the only way we will know the extent of the COVID-19 infiltration.

The United Emirates had mass testing, Russia, too. Other nations, too.

Both the UAE and Russia had relatively low levels of COVID-19.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 18 Mar 2020, 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

18 Mar 2020, 1:32 pm

Fnord wrote:

EzraS wrote:

... If China were all that advanced, they would not have wild animal wet markets, which probably caused covid-19. In other words, covid-19 would have never started in NYC because of the advanced heath laws and practices that would totally forbid anything like a Chinese wet market.

That seems to be a likely conclusion. There is also the large population of survivalists in the western USA who regularly eat bush-meat (i.e., possum, raccoon, squirrel, et cetera). Given enough time, they may produce a similar contagion that threatened Civilization As We Know It.

Maybe not.

I don't mean to put China down, but the place is pretty archaic in many ways compared to the US and UK etc. This is a place where you can buy a fried rat on a stick to eat from a street vendor who doesn't even have it under a heat lamp.

magz
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 1 Jun 2017
Age: 41
Gender: Female
Posts: 16,283
Location: Poland

18 Mar 2020, 1:32 pm

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

IsabellaLinton wrote:

Another problem is that people are able to catch it twice (possibly more, who knows?)

That means even if everyone got tested, they would need tested twice (to see if they are recovered, or to see if they got a second round, or even to re-check the people who were negative).

If it keeps mutating, and we keep re-catching it, then that would mean a much shorter lifespan for the human species.

Or simply join the group of coronaviruses that cause common cold.
Common cold - often caused by coronaviruses - can be deadly for those who grew up without any contact with it - but people living in the civilization have constant contact with them, so their immunological systems deal with them effectively.
The new strain is just... new. We had no chance to gain relative immunity to it yet.

_________________
Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.

<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>

kraftiekortie
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 4 Feb 2014
Gender: Male
Posts: 87,510
Location: Queens, NYC

18 Mar 2020, 1:35 pm

This is a "novel" strain. This is why it's so potent. It's all about "immunity." You're right about that!

The_Face_of_Boo
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 16 Jun 2010
Age: 44
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 33,669
Location: Beirut, Lebanon.

18 Mar 2020, 1:37 pm

magz wrote:

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

IsabellaLinton wrote:

If it keeps mutating, and we keep re-catching it, then that would mean a much shorter lifespan for the human species.

I wonder if those few who got re-infected, had much lesser illness. It's too new to jump to any conclusion.

EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

18 Mar 2020, 1:37 pm

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

EzraS wrote:

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

Will US and UK take drastic measures like China tho?

Some UK officials said that about 80% of its population may get infected at the end of year....that would lead to about 10M of severe cases.

What were the drastic measures that China took?

Watch the video above, 1 picture is worth 1000 words.

So instead of everything closing down and people staying at home like we have been doing, they used plastic wrap and face masks instead.

kraftiekortie
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 4 Feb 2014
Gender: Male
Posts: 87,510
Location: Queens, NYC

18 Mar 2020, 1:39 pm

I believe people were banned from leaving their homes in Wuhan except in emergencies. Guards were posted at the beginnings and ends of neighborhoods there to enforce this. They were fully banned from leaving their neighborhoods.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 18 Mar 2020, 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

The_Face_of_Boo
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 16 Jun 2010
Age: 44
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 33,669
Location: Beirut, Lebanon.

18 Mar 2020, 1:40 pm

EzraS wrote:

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

EzraS wrote:

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

Will US and UK take drastic measures like China tho?

Some UK officials said that about 80% of its population may get infected at the end of year....that would lead to about 10M of severe cases.

What were the drastic measures that China took?

Watch the video above, 1 picture is worth 1000 words.

So instead of everything closing down and people staying at home like we have been doing, they used plastic wrap and face masks instead.

Those who can work from home, stay home, those who can't , have to wrap themselves.

Darmok
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 18 Dec 2015
Gender: Male
Posts: 12,030
Location: New England

18 Mar 2020, 1:44 pm

Meanwhile, normal life goes on.

Baltimore Mayor Begs Residents To Stop Shooting Each Other So Hospital Beds Can Be Used For Coronavirus Patients

BALTIMORE (WJZ) — Baltimore Mayor Jack Young urged residents to put down their guns and heed orders to stay home after multiple people were shot Tuesday night amidst the coronavirus pandemic.

Young said hospital beds are needed to treat positive COVID-19 patients and not for senseless violence. Seven people were shot Tuesday night in the Madison Park neighborhood, as Baltimore reported its fifth positive coronavirus case Wednesday.

https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/03/ ... -pandemic/

_________________

There Are Four Lights!

EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

18 Mar 2020, 1:54 pm

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

EzraS wrote:

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

EzraS wrote:

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

Will US and UK take drastic measures like China tho?

Some UK officials said that about 80% of its population may get infected at the end of year....that would lead to about 10M of severe cases.

What were the drastic measures that China took?

Watch the video above, 1 picture is worth 1000 words.

So instead of everything closing down and people staying at home like we have been doing, they used plastic wrap and face masks instead.

Those who can work from home, stay home, those who can't , have to wrap themselves.

These people in the video are not wrapped:

And that video just shows few people out of 11 million in Wuhan and 1.5 billion altogether.

Last edited by EzraS on 18 Mar 2020, 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

The_Face_of_Boo
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 16 Jun 2010
Age: 44
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 33,669
Location: Beirut, Lebanon.

18 Mar 2020, 1:56 pm

It was a figurative meaning.

kraftiekortie
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 4 Feb 2014
Gender: Male
Posts: 87,510
Location: Queens, NYC

18 Mar 2020, 1:57 pm

We have to find out how the heck it got to Italy----and why it affected them so severely.

Page 119 of 539 [ 8616 posts ] Go to page Previous 1 ... 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122 ... 539 Next

Jump to:

Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus Post Reply New Topic

Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus