Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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South Korean cumulative data as of yesterday. Note that a large proportion of the deaths are for people over 70. Overall death rate across ages is 1% in 8000 cases. Discussion here: https://spinstrangenesscharm.wordpress. ... -princess/

WTF are you saying?! !!
Would *you* eat your babies? <horror>

I am sure Batman doesn't snack on bat kababs.
Superheroes can't be cannibals, even dark ones.

Yeah but... What if...

So on Wednesday my dad was given an offcial document saying he was allowed to travel back and forth from work, in case there is a quarantine and he gets stopped by the police.

"Papers please!"

There is Kraftie, I'm afraid jokes aside it's getting serious here as well. Certain states like Queensland and NSW are the worst effected.

For those of us who work - Jobs, superannuation, pay rises, work entitlements are all at risk

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with COVID-19 — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020.

"This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years."

Last edited by Syd on 19 Mar 2020, 2:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

You have a leg up on the rest of us since you're Australian. With great power comes great responsibility, use your Australian super powers for good! Aussie the piss out of Covid-19!

Alas if that were true

The message we are getting here is not to be complacent
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020 ... h/12059326

Thank you very much for those figures, Syd.

Currently Italy ( with second oldest population in the world ) is experiencing a death rate of 8.3% out of diagnosed cases.

Iran has 6.5% deaths out of confirmed infected. In Spain 4.3% of confirmed infected have died, and in France exactly 4%.

Globally 9% of confirmed cases with an outcome ( "closed cases", which are currently about 40% of the all over total of diagnosed infected ), have died.

In good news, the frequency at which the numbers of dead doubles has gone down in Italy from ( previously "stable" rate of ) every 2-3 days to every 4 the last 5 days, which suggests that, as in China, the recently increasingly strict containment measures may be working.

However in Spain and France and the UK the number of dead has been doubling every 2.5 days on average, ( occasionally every 3 but also equally often every day/1.5 days ) for the last 10-12 days.

It will be interesting to see if recent lockdowns in France and Spain have an effect on that.

In bad news, in the USA the number of deaths was doubling fairly consistently every 4 days but the last 4 days it has speeded up to every 3 days, which would, if unchanged ( eg if the USA doesn't bring in wider testing and much stricter containment measures ), mean 10,000 deaths by early April, and 170K dead by 18th April.

Stay home as much as you possibly can. Wear a mask if you have to go out. Don't use anti-inflammatories ( ex. Ibuprofen and cortisones ), because they suppress immune system activity, and eat oily fish and green leaves and get lots of sleep and sunshine/direct sunlight!

NB. I just read, in the Independent newspaper, that according to a scientific study in Wuhan on coronavirus cases, people with Blood Type A may be significantly more susceptible to catching it/being infected *and* more likely to experience complications/more severe illness. Weird/interesting.

Last edited by ouinon2 on 19 Mar 2020, 3:25 am, edited 2 times in total.

All of this (above) is more bad news. Face masks are sold out everywhere. Most people who take anti-inflammatories and cortisones can't live without them. People with Blood type A are predominantly European which is remarkably bad luck.

One glimmer of hope is that there is enough fish oil green leaves and sunshine to keep healthy

WHO says it’s 3.4% of cases die.
Also
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/heal ... eople.html

“ New C.D.C. data showed that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were aged 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.”

Austrailia.

First case of covid-19 reported on January 25th in Victoria.

Day 54:

Total cases: 1,843.

Serious/critical cases: 12.

First death: 78 year old victim on Day 37.

Total deaths: 5 (elderly / underlying conditions).

Population 25 million.

Last edited by EzraS on 19 Mar 2020, 4:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

That's very good news!

It means that Australia still has time to enact, now, all the most effective measures at a relatively early stage of spread; widespread free testing on demand/organised and administered through the whole country, plus thorough and meticulous contact tracing, plus quarantining of all confirmed infected, centrally if necessary, plus massive disinfection programmes to clean surfaces and environments.

Leaving all of that until there are a hundred deaths, for example, just means many thousands ( and possibly millions ) more deaths later on.

Australia could still, maybe, if it gets a grip fast enough, avoid making the mistakes that Italy and Spain and France and the UK and USA have made, of waiting and doing nothing or too little ... because not enough leaders understood, or were ready to listen to scientists who understood, how exponential series work, ie starting with very small numbers, growing slowly and gradually and then shockingly suddenly!

Can Dr. WHO guestimate the number of people who are infected but haven't been identified?