Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Latest numbers 23892 confirmed cases 492 dead and 852 have recovered

The current death rate is around 2% but with so many people staying sick for a long while based on the fact the only 852 of the confirmed cases have recovered it is possible in the end for that number fluctuate by a lot in either direction.

34 year old doctor who tried to tell people he was seeing patients with a SARS like virus got in trouble with the China goverment for trying to warn people He came down with the Coronavirus and is in ICU on oxygen support. The virus doesn't seem so mild for him.

You really don't know how bad it really is in
China as you can't trust them to be honest
The simple fact they tried to shut this doctor down says a lot

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/03/asia/coronavirus-doctor-whistle-blower-intl-hnk/index.html

Did I ever say that it can't be serious?

All I'm saying is that it usually leads to mild illness.

Unfortunately, there are times when it leads to severe illness, too.

Obviously, the attempts to silence people on the part of the Chinese government is atrocious.

I read an interesting article on the coronavirus this morning. It was in the form of a question/answer session.

Q: How bad will the coronavirus outbreak get?
A: As the saying goes, it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. The best we can do is compare the new coronavirus (dubbed 2019-nCoV) to other, similar viruses. In 2002, the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus emerged, infected 8,098 people and killed 774 within a year or so, then largely vanished. In 2012, the MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) virus emerged, and to this day, it has infected 2,442 people and killed 843. The case-fatality ratios for SARS and MERS were 9.6% and 34.5%, respectively.

The new 2019-nCoV has surpassed both in terms of total number of people infected. As of this evening, the New York Times reports approximately 9,800 cases and 213 deaths. However, the case-fatality ratio is far lower at 2.2%.

It should be kept in mind that data collection on infectious disease can be tricky. Many people who get a mild case of the respiratory disease never show up to the hospital, so it is possible (if not likely) that there are far more cases than we actually know. That would mean the case-fatality ratio is a lot lower than reported.

Q: Is coronavirus worse than the flu?
A: No, not even close. In just this current flu season (which isn't over yet), the CDC estimates between 15 million and 21 million infections and 8,200 and 20,000 deaths. However, the estimated case-fatality ratio would be roughly 0.05% to 0.1%, which is much lower than for 2019-nCoV. Though a person is 20 times likelier to die from the new coronavirus than seasonal flu, the sheer number of influenza infections makes the flu a far bigger public health threat.

Q. Where did the virus come from?
A: Coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means they circulate among animals before they "jump" into humans. SARS probably spread from bats to civet cats to humans; MERS from bats to camels to humans. In both cases, close contact with animals (e.g., in marketplaces) and/or consumption of civet cats or raw camel milk or meat may have been responsible for infecting people. Thus, it is quite reasonable to assume that bats are once again partially to blame for 2019-nCoV, but nobody really knows. It's probably not snakes. It's definitely not bat soup.

Q: How is the virus spread?
A: The virus is spread like most other respiratory viruses; that is, person-to-person via respiratory droplets or fomites. (A fomite is an object, like a doorknob, that serves as an indirect way for infectious microbes to spread.) However, coronaviruses don't generally survive long outside the body, perhaps only a few hours. Because of this, the CDC says that "there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures." In other words, don't worry about getting sick from Chinese imports, unless it's some kind of animal (or food product) that could be hosting the virus. According to Foreign Policy, Chinese food safety standards are atrocious.

Q: Who is susceptible to coronavirus?
A: Anyone can become infected, but older people and men seem to be especially vulnerable. A study in the New England Journal of Medicine concluded that, of the first 425 known cases, the median age of patients was 59 years and 56% were male. As with most infectious diseases, people who have other underlying illnesses are also more susceptible.

Q: Will 2019-nCoV spread in the United States?
A: It already has spread from person-to-person in the U.S., but it probably won't go far. The U.S. is on alert and screening incoming passengers. Doctors know to be on the lookout for this disease. And the American healthcare system is excellent at dealing with this sort of problem. (Remember the Ebola outbreak that never manifested in the U.S.?)

Q: Can wearing a surgical mask help prevent you from becoming infected?
A: If there is any benefit, it is probably minimal. A person who is infected should wear a mask (to help catch respiratory droplets as he or she exhales), and a person who is in close proximity to a sick person should also wear a mask. But an uninfected person walking around outside probably won't benefit much from wearing a mask. The CDC doesn't recommend it, either. Just be sure to wash your hands.

Q: Will coronavirus harm the economy?
A: Probably. It will absolutely hammer the Chinese economy. Even though Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross bizarrely claimed that the virus would boost the U.S. economy, it's quite likely to have the opposite effect. China's massive quarantines, international travel restrictions, and disruptions in the global supply chain likely will set back the global economy, including America's.

Source: Coronavirus In The U.S.: How Bad Will It Be?

Latest numbers are 28.2K confirmed cases 565 deaths and 1178 recoveries
2.0% of the people who have the disease have died so far and. 4.1% of the people who have the disease have recovered.
A lot of people seem to be staying sick for a long time if only 4.1% have recovered.

Well we passed a major milestone on controlling the coronavirus. The coronavirus test kits are now available to the State public labs.

In an effort to speed up coronavirus diagnoses in the U.S., the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) this week granted state laboratories permission to use the rapid coronavirus diagnostic test created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The test was previously only available at CDC laboratories. States with suspected coronavirus cases would send respiratory secretions, namely nasal or oral swabs, from patients to the CDC for testing, forcing state officials to await the results before confirming a case.

Now, however, the test, 2019-nCoV Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, will be available to state public laboratories after the FDA issued a so-called "emergency use authorization" on Tuesday.

Nancy Messonnier, director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), which is a part of the CDC, told reporters during a teleconference that the testing kits were shipped out to qualified laboratories on Wednesday.

Source: Coronavirus testing kits to be sent to labs across US to speed up diagnoses

I can't help but think of a computer analogy. If the coronavirus is analogous to a computer virus. Various countries worldwide are creating firewalls. They are doing this by screening people coming from infected areas, quarantines, travel bans, etc. The next step is the development of virus detector software. To easily detect if your computer system might have picked up a virus. That is what these test kits represent, a means of rapidly identifying infection.

I ran across an interesting article the other day. I would put it in the category of FOLK MEDICINE.

A British man living in China claims he beat the new coronavirus by downing glasses of “hot whiskey and honey.”

Connor Reed, 25, who teaches English in Wuhan, China — the epicenter of the outbreak that has killed more than 400 people and sickened over 20,000 others worldwide — told the Sun he was diagnosed with the virus about two months ago. He said he went to the hospital after he struggled to breathe and experienced a bad cough, both of which are signs of the pneumonia-like illness.

"I was stunned when the doctors told me I was suffering from the virus. I thought I was going to die but I managed to beat it,” he told the outlet, adding he was hospitalized at Zhongnan University Hospital for two weeks following his diagnosis.

“I used the inhaler which helped control the cough and drank a hot whiskey with honey until [it] ran out,” he added. “It’s an old fashioned remedy but it seemed to do the trick.”

Source: Man with coronavirus claims he overcame illness with ‘hot whiskey and honey’

A quick scan of the Internet showed this approach is well documented.

The HuffPost wrote:
There's no real cure for the common cold, but a little bit of whiskey or bourbon (that's a little bit, we said) could offer some relief.

The classic hot toddy, typically made of whiskey, honey, lemon juice and hot water, can subdue the injustices of your inevitable winter cold. The hot water of the toddy helps to relieve nasal congestion, just like heat of a bowl of chicken noodle soup (or Jewish penicillin) does.

And the whiskey helps with sniffle issues, too. “The alcohol dilates blood vessels a little bit, and that makes it easier for your mucus membranes to deal with the infection,” Dr. William Schaffner, chair of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told ABC News.

China identified another source of the Coronavirus and it is the Pangolin.


A very rare close up of a wild Pangolin, taken in the Masai Mara, Kenya (iStock)

Scientists in China say the pangolin, a type of scaly anteater, could be a possible host for the coronavirus that has killed over 636 people and infected nearly 31,400 globally, according to a report by Reuters on Friday.

“This latest discovery will be of great significance for the prevention and control of the origin [of the virus],” South China Agricultural University, which led the research, said in a statement.

Reuters reported the genome sequence of the coronavirus strain taken from pangolins in the study was 99 percent identical to infected people, according to China’s official Xinhua news agency.

Pinpointing the host could be a major step toward getting a handle on the spread. John Epstein, an epidemiologist with the Ecohealth Alliance, said in January that pangolins could be a source of the virus.

Mammals like the pangolin are commonly found in Chinese markets similar to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market -- where 41 of the first cases reportedly originated.

A menu list from a vendor at the market reportedly showed over 100 species for sale. It was called “Wild Game Livestock for the Masses.”

“The vendors are selling illegally poached animals with these licenses in hand," Tian Jiang Ming of the Anti-Poaching Squad, told The Associated Press.

The pangolin is one of the most trafficked mammals in Asia and Africa, with an estimated 116,990 to 233,980 killed between 2011 and 2013, according to the World Wildlife Fund.

They are reportedly in high demand in countries like China and Vietnam, who consider their meat a delicacy. Their scales are routinely used in traditional medicine and folk remedies, the organization said.

"Pangolins eat ants, termites and larvae," the WWF said. "Because they have no teeth, pangolins pick up food with their sticky tongues, which can sometimes reach lengths greater than the animal’s body."

All eight pangolin species are protected under national and international laws, with a treaty of over 180 governments agreeing to end all legal trade of pangolins back in 2016, the organization said.

Source: Trump talks to Xi; Chinese scientists say a scaly anteater could be coronavirus host

Coronavirus screening for 27 Royal Caribbean cruise passengers in N.J., 4 taken to hospital

One of the reasons doctors are being infected is poor understanding of the biology of the virus. If they checked back with previous coroaviruses like SARS the mode infection includes the mucous layers around the eyes. It has been confirmed that the eye is a point of transmission which implies medical staff need gloves, appropriate face-masks and goggles (swimming goggles are sufficient for this type of protection).

Another recent finding is that the virus originated in an endangered Chinese pangolin (a type of armadillo) which contains coronavirus that is 99% similar to this new strain of human coronovirus. The Chinese scientists think the virus spread from this Pangolin to bats (an intermediate host) and from deep fried bat to human.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services partnered with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals in Tarrytown, New York. Scientists said the coronavirus likely started in Wuhan, China from animals, but Regeneron Pharmaceuticals said mice could be the fix.

“We’ve created something that's almost science fiction. We've literally created micro humans or micro human immune systems inside of laboratory mice. And so these mice actually respond just like humans,” said the president and chief scientific officer of Regeneron, Dr. George D. Yancopoulos.

Scientists will synthesize a part of the virus, inject the DNA into the mice, then wait for the animals to respond by making antibodies against a specific pathogen. “Thousands of these mice get the best responders that mount the best immune response that fights off the virus. And now we can clone it out. And it's a pure human response,” Yancopoulos said.

The term "coronavirus" refers to the family of viruses. Corona means crown, which refers to the so-called spikes that stick out from the protein. “These are the things that are used by the virus to attach to a human cell,” Yancopoulos continued. “The goal is, if you could block these spikes, then it would have nothing to stick on to the human cell and it would be rendered noninfectious”.

Source: HHS partners with pharmaceutical company on coronavirus cure

About 18% of the infected are in critical condition; this is so bad.

Where did you get that from?