Satellite data shows up climate forecasts

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Double Retired
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06 Oct 2024, 1:28 pm

I think a population crash is very likely...though it might not get here for a few centuries.

Putting AI in charge? There are a number of excellent or, at least, good science fiction movies like that. But:
- Will it be in time to prevent climate collapse?
- Will it care?


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cyberdad
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06 Oct 2024, 4:12 pm

Double Retired wrote:
Putting AI in charge? There are a number of excellent or, at least, good science fiction movies like that. But:
- Will it be in time to prevent climate collapse?
- Will it care?

AI led research and development is inevitable, think tanks for research led by massive AI network systems with unlimited access to data can come up with better outcomes for solving the climate crisis than humans whose biggest motivation is usually getting tenure in a university.



Last edited by cyberdad on 06 Oct 2024, 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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06 Oct 2024, 4:40 pm

But the world's biggest forests in South America and Indonesia are slowly being cleared for farmland
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... bc779a496c

the loss of these carbon sinks and increase in carbon emissions will accelerate global warming trends.



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06 Oct 2024, 5:21 pm

cyberdad wrote:
But the world's biggest forests in South America and Indonesia are slowly being cleared for farmland
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... bc779a496c

the loss of these carbon sinks and increase in carbon emissions will accelerate global warming trends.



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06 Oct 2024, 5:24 pm

"Coastal officials prepare for looming threat to strike: 'I don't think people understand what's coming'"

Quote:
Galveston, Texas, has defied the odds since its inception, facing the ebbs and flows of the Gulf of Mexico's tides to build a community on the water. But an influx of climate-related natural disasters will test the city like never before.

What's happening?

For Galveston residents, the notion of racing against time — and tides — is merely a fact of life. Over the past several decades, the city has embarked on several multimillion-dollar federally funded projects to construct a sea barrier wall, reinforce sand dunes, and even raise the ground floor of entire neighborhoods.

But now, scientists and officials are warning that the threats fueled by rising global temperatures will outpace the city's ability to fortify itself. Yet it seems few people take these warnings seriously, the Washington Post reported.

In fact, in Galveston, there are major proposed beachside developments moving forward in an area that has repeatedly seen erosion, flooding, and sea level rise at a rate that outpaces the rest of the country.

Why is this so concerning?

The developers' attitude of optimism bordering on denial has many concerned.

"I don't think people really understand what's coming," the Post quoted Randall Parkinson, a geologist with Florida International University. "It's nothing anybody has ever experienced."
Watch now: Tour the Climate Science Fair with TCD

The rapid acceleration of these weather events — from stronger hurricanes to increased precipitation and flood risk — is directly tied to the planet's rising temperatures. And those, Parkinson explained, are not expected to slow down anytime soon.

Not only do these events endanger communities like Galveston, which draw in many tourists who may be even more unaware of the threat, they also drive up insurance costs and require millions of dollars in taxpayer money each year to rebuild and refortify their vulnerable coastlines.

And this isn't unique to Texas. Coastal communities in Maine, Florida, California, and many other states are grappling with the difficult balance of investing in resilience versus relocating.

And with changes continuing to accelerate, more and more people will face the question in the coming decades.


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cyberdad
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06 Oct 2024, 8:39 pm

this is confusing, are rising tides and coastal erosion responsible for California coastlines getting inundated?
Or is it global warming?



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07 Oct 2024, 1:40 pm

I suspect the correct answer is "Yes".

Rising tides and coastal erosion are associated with coastal flooding and with rising water levels. Mostly I've been hearing about it on Atlantic coast but I'll guess there might be some on the Pacific coasts, too. The article is talking about Texas so, strictly speaking, the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico...but those are sometimes lumped in with the Atlantic coasts.

And Climate Change has increased the frequency of the events. But since individual incidences may or may not have been caused by Climate Change they used to just say it made things more likely. Recently, however, I have heard cases of weather forecasters directly attributing some things to Climate Change.

"Global Warming" is, I think, an outdated term for what is now called "Climate Change". Climate Change is causing more erratic weather. Usually but not always warmer. But with changes to Arctic air patterns sometimes some spots will get some cold weather which is attributed to Climate Change. That is a temporary phenomena, however. In a few centuries warming will be overwhelmingly dominant.


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07 Oct 2024, 1:48 pm

cyberdad wrote:
this is confusing, are rising tides and coastal erosion responsible for California coastlines getting inundated?
Or is it global warming?


Distinction w/o a difference.

If the sea level is going up then its likely do to rising global temperatures...which causes both of the polar ice caps to melt, and an increase water volume in the sea because everything gets bigger when it warms up.



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07 Oct 2024, 2:02 pm

Oh boy, a thread about global warming and AI? :D

I'm of the opinion that AI isn't anything more than a bubble at this point. The current training model for generative AI has a serious problem with diminishing returns - which means that, in order to get AGI you'd end up having to use infinite energy. This is why Microsoft, Google and openAI are so interested in operating nuclear power plants - there is literally not enough energy even for todays models, much less tomorrows, so they need nuclear power to keep things going. Needless to say, I feel pretty confident that we will collectively run out of energy long before we get AGI.

So I'm not worried about AI.

Speaking of energy, it appears that we actually hit world peak oil in November of 2018. Oil production in the US is still increasing, but not as fast as the rest of the world is decreasing. It's also looking like the US will hit its peak in the late 2020s, after which it will experience a significant decline. This just so happens to line up pretty well with the big public push of "peak oil demand" - you can't demand more than what exists, after all.

This rolls nicely in to global warming. I don't think the Earth will warm more than about ~4.5C. The reason is because 1.)Fossil Fuel use will naturally drop off below a point where additional emissions will be stalled 2.)this natural drop off of fossil fuels will result in a significant correction to the human population in the medium term, lowering emissions even more

cyberdad wrote:
AI led research and development is inevitable, think tanks for research led by massive AI network systems with unlimited access to data can come up with better outcomes for solving the climate crisis than humans whose biggest motivation is usually getting tenure in a university.


AI isn't going to "solve" anything, much less the climate crisis. Not only is it not designed to actually solve anything, it literally can not create anything new from the vast data that it has due to the way it's trained and designed. If you need proof, try and get it to create a neologism. It can't do it.

AI is good at remixing existing concepts. It can't make anything that it hasn't been explicitly trained on.

Ultimately there's only one actual solution to the climate problem:

How do you get 8 billion people in 2024 to emit the same amount of emissions and use the same amount of energy and resources as 900 million people did in 1750?

The answer is, you can't.



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07 Oct 2024, 3:50 pm

Double Retired wrote:
Rising tides and coastal erosion are associated with coastal flooding and with rising water levels. Mostly I've been hearing about it on Atlantic coast but I'll guess there might be some on the Pacific coasts, too. The article is talking about Texas so, strictly speaking, the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico...but those are sometimes lumped in with the Atlantic coasts.
.



naturalplastic wrote:
If the sea level is going up then its likely do to rising global temperatures...which causes both of the polar ice caps to melt, and an increase water volume in the sea because everything gets bigger when it warms up.


Ok I am trying to understand the mechanism. I was watching a documentary on the California railways and the narrator was talking about coastal erosion and high tides being responsible for the coastal rail line and seaside villas being washed away by the sea. Never once mentioned global warming. Was confused if this is a cyclical thing or progressive.

I've seen images of glacial ice melt and inundation of coastlines but it seems the pattern is not consistent across all coastlines.



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07 Oct 2024, 5:53 pm

Even w/o climate change some stretches of coastline get washed away, and others get silted out and expand out to sea.

A harbor gets silted up here, and a cliff collapses dumping a light house into the sea there.



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07 Oct 2024, 6:30 pm

Climate Change is a huge but gradual contributor.

As the world warms (as a whole...like I said things will be erratic and some spots might temporarily get cold) the oceans get deeper. Maybe only a few inches deeper, but that will make it easier for storm surges to get to things along the coast.

Ocean water in the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast of North America is getting warmer, in general. For the last few years that has been a factor feeding the fury of hurricanes. It has gotten to the point where TV weather reports are repeatedly calling the behavior of this year's hurricanes "unprecedented". That is, hurricanes seem to be getting nastier.

But "Climate Change" is a huge, slow process. From one year to the next you don't really see it. But there is an increasing number of small things going on that are, by themselves, newsworthy.


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cyberdad
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08 Oct 2024, 2:37 am

Double Retired wrote:
It has gotten to the point where TV weather reports are repeatedly calling the behavior of this year's hurricanes "unprecedented". That is, hurricanes seem to be getting nastier.


Yes we are currently having unprecedented hurricanes right now in Queensland. the language is the same.



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08 Oct 2024, 2:41 am

naturalplastic wrote:
Even w/o climate change some stretches of coastline get washed away, and others get silted out and expand out to sea.

A harbor gets silted up here, and a cliff collapses dumping a light house into the sea there.


Right, so silt from runnoff from inland development does spread out from river basins into coastal plains.



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08 Oct 2024, 4:24 pm

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08 Oct 2024, 5:11 pm

cyberdad wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Even w/o climate change some stretches of coastline get washed away, and others get silted out and expand out to sea.

A harbor gets silted up here, and a cliff collapses dumping a light house into the sea there.


Right, so silt from runnoff from inland development does spread out from river basins into coastal plains.


Even without rivers breakers hit a beach at an angle and push sand from the sea itself down the coast-silt that trapped in an extended breakwater can extend land. Then there is the natural silt deposited by rivers into the sea...and then there is enhanced silt caused by human development inland.

And then there are regions created by ages of silt deposited by a great river that are now being eroded away into the sea by that same river...like the Delta region loosing land because the Army Corps of Engineers have been straightening the whole length of the Mississippi so it now flows faster.

So now every three years Louisana looses land equal in size to the...entire Gaza Strip! Look how many people are dying fighting over Gaza Strip as we speak! :lol: And until recently Louisianans hardly ever bated an eyelash!