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20 Mar 2020, 1:12 am
jimmy m wrote:
The problem with exponential growth theory is that it assumes all the variables are frozen in a block of solid ice. There are hundreds of variable. They can be whether countries close off their borders, whether they implement a quarantine, the effect of humidity on infection rates. China is a good example of the weakness with this theory. Their infection rates were going through the roof. But at the present moment their infection rates are hovering a little above zero.
The question is what are these variables and what is the impact of each variable as a change agent.
The question is what are these variables and what is the impact of each variable as a change agent.
I think you're knocking down a strawman here. To show you why, have you taken a look at this chart?
So of course, factors like that are important, and scientific sources do acknowledge them and take them seriously. That's why you have decrees like tonight's order from the Governor of California for everyone to shelter in place. The purpose is to flatten the curve and to stop the kind of out of control exponential growth that would likely overwhelm the health system.
Last edited by beneficii on 20 Mar 2020, 1:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
20 Mar 2020, 1:14 am
beneficii wrote:
EzraS wrote:
That's good because covid-19 is just so critical in the US two months after the first case of it here.
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
I see where you're making your error. You cannot use the total number of cases as the denominator here, because the vast majority of those cases were diagnosed in just the past few days and have yet to resolve. You need to do it as a percentage of the cases that have already resolved, that is, where the patient recovers or dies from the disease.
Current epidemiological data suggests about 16% of cases end up being serious:
Quote:
While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a reportexternal icon out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... mmary.html
Of course, you probably won't listen to me, and will continue to misuse your intellect to engage in mental gymnastics, but I hope to be able to clear this up for others on the board.
^ So people don't miss this.
20 Mar 2020, 1:19 am
beneficii wrote:
EzraS wrote:
That's good because covid-19 is just so critical in the US two months after the first case of it here.
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
I see where you're making your error. You cannot use the total number of cases as the denominator here, because the vast majority of those cases were diagnosed in just the past few days and have yet to resolve. You need to do it as a percentage of the cases that have already resolved, that is, where the patient recovers or dies from the disease.
Current epidemiological data suggests about 16% of cases end up being serious:
Quote:
While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a reportexternal icon out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... mmary.html
Of course, you probably won't listen to me, and will continue to misuse your intellect to engage in mental gymnastics, but I hope to be able to clear this up for others on the board.
Why don't you provide a percentage of the cases that have already resolved, that is, where the patient recovers or dies from the disease?
Because it is not in that link, which is dealing with the issue contemporaneously - which is what you are objecting to.
I am not the one doing mental gymnastics - quite the opposite actually obliviously.
If you think I have intellect, why do you keep insulting it?
20 Mar 2020, 1:24 am
EzraS wrote:
beneficii wrote:
EzraS wrote:
That's good because covid-19 is just so critical in the US two months after the first case of it here.
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
I see where you're making your error. You cannot use the total number of cases as the denominator here, because the vast majority of those cases were diagnosed in just the past few days and have yet to resolve. You need to do it as a percentage of the cases that have already resolved, that is, where the patient recovers or dies from the disease.
Current epidemiological data suggests about 16% of cases end up being serious:
Quote:
While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a reportexternal icon out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... mmary.html
Of course, you probably won't listen to me, and will continue to misuse your intellect to engage in mental gymnastics, but I hope to be able to clear this up for others on the board.
Why don't you provide a percentage of the cases that have already resolved, that is, where the patient recovers or dies from the disease?
Because it is not in that link, which is dealing with the issue contemporaneously - which is what you are objecting to.
I am not the one doing mental gymnastics - quite the opposite actually obliviously.
If you think I have intellect, why do you keep insulting it?
Because I'm satisfied that the epidemiological research is putting out the most accurate estimates with the best information we have right now. You're the one disputing the 16% number, you're the one saying that they're wrong and that the number is actually 1% or lower. It sounds to me like you are the one who is dissatisfied with the epidemiological research.
So if you think the research is wrong, why don't you look deeper into that research and try to point out how they're getting it wrong?
And you're getting me wrong in my opinion of your intellect. I actually do not think you're stupid. Rather, I think your problem is that you just want to be right. And that you're too smart for your own good right now, to the point where you just end up outsmarting yourself.
20 Mar 2020, 1:42 am
beneficii wrote:
beneficii wrote:
EzraS wrote:
That's good because covid-19 is just so critical in the US two months after the first case of it here.
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
I see where you're making your error. You cannot use the total number of cases as the denominator here, because the vast majority of those cases were diagnosed in just the past few days and have yet to resolve. You need to do it as a percentage of the cases that have already resolved, that is, where the patient recovers or dies from the disease.
Current epidemiological data suggests about 16% of cases end up being serious:
Quote:
While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a reportexternal icon out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... mmary.html
Of course, you probably won't listen to me, and will continue to misuse your intellect to engage in mental gymnastics, but I hope to be able to clear this up for others on the board.
^ So people don't miss this.
Bottom line, with or without toilet paper:
There is nothing you, Ezras nor I can do to change the course of events.
Flotsam on the sea of events, so to speak.
But it will be interesting to see who, ultimately, has bragging rights when we have overcome this situation.
So, what we really only *do* have to play with *is* intellectual gymnastics.
People enjoy discussions, even if it involves unknowns.
It is not like politics, where the left is always wrong, and the right is always, err, right, after all.
20 Mar 2020, 1:43 am
eikonabridge wrote:
Asian students of University of Birmingham, UK, heading home to Asia, on an airplane.
This picture nicely illustrates why there is a world wide shortage of face masks. Dentists and other health professionals need them too.
20 Mar 2020, 1:46 am
beneficii wrote:
EzraS wrote:
beneficii wrote:
EzraS wrote:
That's good because covid-19 is just so critical in the US two months after the first case of it here.
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
As they say, numbers don't lie.
Terrifying huh?
I see where you're making your error. You cannot use the total number of cases as the denominator here, because the vast majority of those cases were diagnosed in just the past few days and have yet to resolve. You need to do it as a percentage of the cases that have already resolved, that is, where the patient recovers or dies from the disease.
Current epidemiological data suggests about 16% of cases end up being serious:
Quote:
While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a reportexternal icon out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... mmary.html
Of course, you probably won't listen to me, and will continue to misuse your intellect to engage in mental gymnastics, but I hope to be able to clear this up for others on the board.
Why don't you provide a percentage of the cases that have already resolved, that is, where the patient recovers or dies from the disease?
Because it is not in that link, which is dealing with the issue contemporaneously - which is what you are objecting to.
I am not the one doing mental gymnastics - quite the opposite actually obliviously.
If you think I have intellect, why do you keep insulting it?
Because I'm satisfied that the epidemiological research is putting out the most accurate estimates with the best information we have right now. You're the one disputing the 16% number, you're the one saying that they're wrong and that the number is actually 1% or lower. It sounds to me like you are the one who is dissatisfied with the epidemiological research.
So if you think the research is wrong, why don't you look deeper into that research and try to point out how they're getting it wrong?
And you're getting me wrong in my opinion of your intellect. I actually do not think you're stupid. Rather, I think your problem is that you just want to be right. And that you're too smart for your own good right now, to the point where you just end up outsmarting yourself.
What I am simply doing is producing the numbers as they currently exist in various countries. In most countries the number of serious cases is around 0 to 1%. These are simple easy to see actual figures.
What I am getting in response to this simplicity is a lot of tl;dr articles along with a lot of superfluous maudlin personalized nonsense. Quite frankly the way you lay it on, it seems like you are looking for either a boyfriend or mother child type relationship with me.
20 Mar 2020, 1:47 am
Pepe wrote:
Bottom line, with or without toilet paper:
There is nothing you, Ezras nor I can do to change the course of events.
Flotsam on the sea of events, so to speak.
But it will be interesting to see who, ultimately, has bragging rights when we have overcome this situation.
So, what we really only *do* have to play with *is* intellectual gymnastics.
People enjoy discussions, even if it involves unknowns.
It is not like politics, where the left is always wrong, and the right is always, err, right, after all.
There is nothing you, Ezras nor I can do to change the course of events.
Flotsam on the sea of events, so to speak.
But it will be interesting to see who, ultimately, has bragging rights when we have overcome this situation.
So, what we really only *do* have to play with *is* intellectual gymnastics.
People enjoy discussions, even if it involves unknowns.
It is not like politics, where the left is always wrong, and the right is always, err, right, after all.
Well, as always on scientific matters, I'm willing to admit I could be wrong. Is Ezra also willing to admit that?
20 Mar 2020, 1:50 am
20 Mar 2020, 2:09 am
20 Mar 2020, 2:10 am
beneficii wrote:
Well, as always on scientific matters, I'm willing to admit I could be wrong. Is Ezra also willing to admit that?
OMG, this comes my way every 3 years or so, and I am going to savour it. Mmmmmm
The answer is a resounding Yes!
Ezras and I will absolutely admit it!
We wholeheartedly believe *you* could be wrong on scientific matters.
Sorry.
Cheap shot I know, but come on.
How could anyone resist a free-kick like that?
EzraS wrote:
What I am getting in response to this simplicity is a lot of tl;dr articles along with a lot of superfluous maudlin personalized nonsense. Quite frankly the way you lay it on, it seems like you are looking for either a boyfriend or mother child type relationship with me.
If you need a father figure, I'm prepared to step up to the plate.
Last edited by Pepe on 20 Mar 2020, 2:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
20 Mar 2020, 2:10 am
beneficii wrote:
Pepe wrote:
Bottom line, with or without toilet paper:
There is nothing you, Ezras nor I can do to change the course of events.
Flotsam on the sea of events, so to speak.
But it will be interesting to see who, ultimately, has bragging rights when we have overcome this situation.
So, what we really only *do* have to play with *is* intellectual gymnastics.
People enjoy discussions, even if it involves unknowns.
It is not like politics, where the left is always wrong, and the right is always, err, right, after all.
There is nothing you, Ezras nor I can do to change the course of events.
Flotsam on the sea of events, so to speak.
But it will be interesting to see who, ultimately, has bragging rights when we have overcome this situation.
So, what we really only *do* have to play with *is* intellectual gymnastics.
People enjoy discussions, even if it involves unknowns.
It is not like politics, where the left is always wrong, and the right is always, err, right, after all.
Well, as always on scientific matters, I'm willing to admit I could be wrong. Is Ezra also willing to admit that?
He's wrong (as usual) the death rate and serious cases is closer to 3%
20 Mar 2020, 2:14 am
20 Mar 2020, 2:16 am
20 Mar 2020, 2:19 am
Pepe wrote:
beneficii wrote:
Well, as always on scientific matters, I'm willing to admit I could be wrong. Is Ezra also willing to admit that?
OMG, this comes my way every 3 years or so, and I am going to savour it. Mmmmmm
The answer is a resounding Yes!
Ezras and I will absolutely admit it!
We wholeheartedly believe *you* could be wrong on scientific matters.
Sorry.
Cheap shot I know, but come on.
How could anyone resist a free-kick like that?
EzraS wrote:
What I am getting in response to this simplicity is a lot of tl;dr articles along with a lot of superfluous maudlin personalized nonsense. Quite frankly the way you lay it on, it seems like you are looking for either a boyfriend or mother child type relationship with me.
If you need a father figure, I'm prepared to step up to the plate.
Take a number.
20 Mar 2020, 2:28 am
cyberdad wrote:
beneficii wrote:
Pepe wrote:
Bottom line, with or without toilet paper:
There is nothing you, Ezras nor I can do to change the course of events.
Flotsam on the sea of events, so to speak.
But it will be interesting to see who, ultimately, has bragging rights when we have overcome this situation.
So, what we really only *do* have to play with *is* intellectual gymnastics.
People enjoy discussions, even if it involves unknowns.
It is not like politics, where the left is always wrong, and the right is always, err, right, after all.
There is nothing you, Ezras nor I can do to change the course of events.
Flotsam on the sea of events, so to speak.
But it will be interesting to see who, ultimately, has bragging rights when we have overcome this situation.
So, what we really only *do* have to play with *is* intellectual gymnastics.
People enjoy discussions, even if it involves unknowns.
It is not like politics, where the left is always wrong, and the right is always, err, right, after all.
Well, as always on scientific matters, I'm willing to admit I could be wrong. Is Ezra also willing to admit that?
He's wrong (as usual) the death rate and serious cases is closer to 3%
You are right, I said several times that imo at least 95% of covid-19 cases are mild.
I am more than happy to change that to 97% of covid-19 cases are mild.
What do we have to have 99.9% mild for it to not be a disaster of epic proportions?
A disaster based on the theory that 3% will jump to 6% and then 12%, 24%, 48%, 96%, 192%, 384%, 786%, 1536%.... 1,610,612,736%
Last edited by EzraS on 20 Mar 2020, 2:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
