Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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It occurred to me that if this turns out to not be such a big deal as was the case with the swine flu, they can always say that having everyone locked up is what kept it from becoming a big deal.

There is some indication that jobless claims could spike next week to over 2 million. This would simply be staggering:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/economi ... virus.html

If you look at the historical data, this would be more than twice the record high set in 1982:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ess-claims

Article about coronavirus and exponential growth :

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ial-growth

There are a lot of people who can not afford to stalk up food and other essentials for a month or more.

Moreover they will be the first ones to lose their jobs and lose what little income they had to buy anything.

Statistical analyses are only as reliable as the underlying data.


Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus

In an analysis published Tuesday, Stanford’s John P.A. Ioannidis — co-director of the university’s Meta-Research Innovation Center and professor of medicine, biomedical data science, statistics, and epidemiology and population health — suggests that the response to the coronavirus pandemic may be “a fiasco in the making” because we are making seismic decisions based on “utterly unreliable” data. The data we do have, Ioannidis explains, indicates that we are likely severely overreacting.

“The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco,” Ioannidis writes in an opinion piece published by STAT on Tuesday.

“Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable,” the statistician writes. “How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?”

The woefully inadequate data we have so far, the meta-research specialist argues, indicates that the extreme measures taken by many countries are likely way out of line and may result in ultimately unnecessary and catastrophic consequences. Due to extremely limited testing, we are likely missing “the vast majority of infections” from COVID-19, he states, thus making reported fatality rates from the World Health Organization “meaningless.”

“Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes,” Ioannidis explains. With very limited testing in many health systems, he suggests, that “selection bias” may only get worse going forward.

Ioannidis then zooms in on the “one situation” where “an entire, closed population was tested”: the Diamond Princess cruise ship’s quarantined passengers. While the fatality rate was 1.0%, he points out, the population was largely elderly, the most at-risk demographic. Projected out onto the age structure of the U.S. population, he calculates, the death rate is more like 0.125%, with a range of 0.025% to 0.625% based on the sample size:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford ... oronavirus

It’s no BS in NY State. 5,300 cases with limited testing so far. I sense it will be in the hundreds of thousands when all is said and done. Let’s hope not! Not deaths...cases.

I think I may have it.

I’m getting tested.

Nothing to panic about.....but we have to do something......and we are.

I had a “regular cold” until I started running a slight fever and had chills and sweats overnight.

Many people have mild symptoms.

I was to take my mother for an infusion....but I decided to be safe, rather than sorry. She’s 85 years old, and is immunocompromised. If she gets what I may have, it might kill her.